Editorial Looking At Tablet PCs Cites Steve Jobs Prognostication

by , 10:00 AM EDT, September 25th, 2003

The Independent (UK) has published an interesting editorial by Charles Arthur looking at the success, or lack of success, for Tablet PCs. Tablet PCs were introduced with great fanfare in 2001. Mr. Arthur notes that at the time, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates said, "within five years, I predict that [this format] will be the most popular form of PC sold in America."

Today, two years later, Tablet PCs claim 1% of the European market, and less than 1% in the US, as of the June quarter. Mr. Arthur says that he doesn't see Tablet PC sales going anywhere, and he cites Steve Jobs's own prognostications to the same effect while doing so. From The Independent.

There is one other factor: there are a lot of keyboards out there, and people have long since learned to use them effortlessly. And even a Tablet never has trouble understanding your typing - unlike your handwriting.

Steve Jobs, the head of Apple, said at a conference back in May that his company has no plans to make a tablet, despite all the hype. "It turns out people want keyboards. When Apple first started out, people couldn't type. We realized: Death would eventually take care of this."

Say one thing for Mr Jobs: he's blunt. He concluded: "We look at the tablet and we think it's going to fail. Tablets appeal to rich guys with plenty of other PCs and devices already. And people accuse us of niche markets."

The full article is an interesting look at the fate of the Tablet PC, and we recommend it as an interesting read.

The Mac Observer Spin:

For those keeping score at home, we think that the Tablet PC has a strong future in certain vertical markets. The legal market (paralegals and whatnot), warehouses, secretaries that do shorthand, medical facilities...All these markets will continue to be users of the tablet format. Schools, too, could benefit from tablet-style computers by removing the monitor between the student and the teacher. Then again, that would have students looking down, so it's certainly not a cut and dry issue. Our point, however, is that these vertical markets will remain closed to Apple if the company doesn't offer a tablet. Obviously, Apple thinks differently about the situation.

1% of the market doesn't sound like a lot, but it's currently a third of Apple's total market, and the numbers might actually work out more to Apple's favor when manufacturing in such comparatively low quantities. That is especially true if you consider the effect that Apple's touch could have on that market. From the MP3 player, to USB, to Bluetooth, Apple's entry into many markets has awakened those markets in ways that PC vendors had otherwise been unable to do. That said, this is the same argument that some have made when discussing how Apple could benefit from an Apple-branded PDA, and we know how that story worked out.

So, we don't expect to see an Apple-branded tablet, and the Tablet PC itself is very likely to continue to go nowhere, just as Steve Jobs said it would.

Independent Article