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Right now, the only reason I could see to buy a physical CD instead of an album via iTMS is the lack of liner notes (lyrics, photos, notes from band members, etc.). Nonetheless, when a new CD came out yesterday, I opted for the instant gratification of the iTMS download (let alone the $9.99 price tag).

Once iTMS and others figure out how to get liner notes into their downloads, that's when brick-and-mortar stores will really take a serious hit. Until then, with box sets and other perks to physical CDs, brick-and-mortar stores will continue to hold on to their existance.

Hey you forgot a few: uncompressed audio, ability to rip to any bitrate/format, no DRM, and sometimes lower prices.

Brick and mortar stores will exist, but they will be selling music a different way. Heck, the entire industry will be different than what we see today. I imagine the large labels will lose the stranglehold on the consumer that they enjoy today. Independent labels will level the playing field, as digital downloads take a larger and larger chunk of the total sales. There will still be off the shelf CDs in the physical stores, but I envision along with that a series of kiosks, where one can browse and shop for songs that will be burned right there in the store onto a CD. You might pay a little more for an album, but that's because you're shopping on a per song basis.

It will be good. It will actually be the consumer buying what he/she wants, instead of getting an entire album for $17.99 to purchase one song they heard on the radio.

I see this change as taking place more slowly. No doubt a lot of the younger generation is comfortable with downloads, but there are still very solid reasons to buy physical CDs. Some are mentioned above, and the uncertainty over how DRM will shake out should not be written off lightly. Those rules are still being made and changed, and as long as there is uncertainty, some consumers will shy away.
I like downloads, and buy them on occasion, but prefer to have my music in a physical form, with liner notes, better audio quality, etc. (see Biff ) For what I percieve to be a better product, I am willing to pay a few more dollars. Now, if the downloads were, say, half the price of the physical CD, that might sway me, but I don't see it happening.

They are already selling vinyl figures, video games, clothes and Playboy branded items. The big record stores may survive because they'll add whatever sells. Mom & pop is almost gone at this point, so the next loss area will be the mid levels and local chains.

Visiting a camera store recently, I ended up with the manager helping me out. The store itself is part of a regional chain, that does a lot of premium quality film developing and the like. I asked her how they managed to cope with the digital photography hit to the film developing cash cow and she said, "you have to stay flexible to stay in business. A lot of people bring their digital photos in to have us print them. Our $250,000 printer can usually do a better job than an $800 inkjet printer, and it's less hassle." Not to mention people who still have perfectly functional film cameras; but when those people are ready to replace them, the store carries digital cameras from cheapo to pro.

By the same token, I don't think the brick-and-mortar record store is an outdated concept. Certainly there will be mergers and shakeouts, but the survivors will adapt. They could sell iPods and lesser MP3 players, they could offer kiosks where you can plug in your laptop/iPod and purchase music at Firewire speed (and nothing would stop them from offering AIFF), or allow you to specify a playlist to burn onto a CD. They could (with the help, or at least blessing, of the artists & labels) offer a database of lyrics and artwork that you could use to create liner notes and disk labels.

Record stores in 2015 won't look much like today's, but they'll be around.

Some people still demand these things, and will continue to. Perhaps the iTMS (and whatever other imitators) will get around to providing full liner notes and songs in ALAC format, but as of now and the near future, this isn't the case.

Don't get me wrong - I like MP3s and AACs. They're convenient. Especially for artists I'm not ready to commit $10-$20 to. But for the music I really care about, I still buy CDs, and I don't see that changing. Think of it this way - even with the best compression (AAC) you're cutting out 80% of the sound, and you lose the full impact of the cohesive package without the art and words.

The experience just isn't the same. The few times I've downloaded an entire album, I was left with almost no impression of the artist. It was like eating rice cakes. No impression, no lasting effect. Unsatisfying. It took almost a hundred years of recorded music evolution to get the album/CD format the way it is - and there's a reason it is the way it is. When music strikes a chord with you, it's a wonderful, personal experience that captures more than just 30 minutes of your time.* Downloaded MP3s can't do that.

There will continue to be people who think this way. They just won't be the people buying Avril Lavigne songs. I see the record stores of the future as being more tailored to narrow markets (i.e. Jazz stores, Indie stores, Classical, etc.) who still have higher standards. The mass-market record stores will just be big download stations in malls - and that's fine. That's more than most pop songs deserve these days.

*Pretty Girls Make Graves wrote a fantastic song about that experience, "Speakers Push the Air.' Check it out.

digital music distribution will never conquer until it offers better quality. I will never purchase another classical music disc, for example, at AAC 128 bitrate -- it sounds thin and slushy. Most pop music sounds OK -- but overall it's fatiguing to listen to as compared to an uncompressed CD.

come on Apple -- strap on your balls, and finish the revolution that you started -- offer us true CD quality, instead of the slushy sounding compromise that the music industry forced your to adopt when they had the upper hand.

A place where you can go and have a custom playlist burned to a CD? First of all in the future, I would hope nobody is using CDs. Secondly, right now you can burn a CD at home in what like < 5 minutes?

I can't really see any use for these stores once the world goes to music downloads. Whatever these stores turn into I doubt it will have much to do with actually selling music on premises.

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Billy K wrote:
There will continue to be people who think this way. They just won't be the people buying Avril Lavigne songs.

Speaking as one of those "people buying Avril Lavigne songs" via iTMS (I bought her new CD "Under My Skin" via iTMS yesterday, and devoted all of my Pepsi caps to her live tracks), I agree that downloads are great for artists I'm not fully committed to as of yet. My all-time favorites, such as Rush, will always be bought on physical CD because I can't do without Peart's lyrics. That would change if I could get the liner notes online, though, as I like not only the convenience of purchasing by download, but also the ease of keeping my music organized via iTunes. It would be great to be able to keep liner notes just as organized. Plus I'd never have to clean cat hair off of my virtual CDs.

This past Christmas I stopped in the Tower Records store on Broadway and East 4th. This was without a doubt the most heavly trafficked record store in NYC for the last 22 years. Normally the place is packed, akin to the Agora--people used it as a meeting place even if they weren't buying. It was even...a hangout. This Christmas Eve, a prime shopping day, perhaps THE prime shopping day of the year, this store was a ghost town! Three levels of a store that stretches a city block from Broadway to Lafayette streets and a quarter block wide and it contained by my incredulous count 18 people! Jazz, classical, oldies, pop--I walked the entire store and counted 18 people shopping. this is a place that I recalled most nights having a hundred to a hundred and fifty people in it up to the midnight closing. On a lark, I went back after the new year and it looked even worse numbers-wise.

The HMV chain went belly-up here, closing it's three stores about two years ago, and Sam Goody closed it's remaining three Manhattan locations in '02. Strangely, the small niche sellers have remained perhaps due to buyer loyalty and neighborhood habits, but the big boys are D-E-A-D in this city of 8 million people. It ain't all due to iTunes. Napster, KaZaa and the new online music delivery model all helped, in addition to the record industry's stupidity of initially ditching the "single" then charging too much for the CD singles they did put out and then finally killing it for good, thus removing the stores' main loss-leader/customer lure. ITunes is so darned simple to use and so ubiquitous that my company's IT staff effectively banned employees from using it as the frequency of use gobbled up a major hunk of bandwidth.

Oddly, the CD bootleggers that used to dot the occasional corner are now all over the place with their $5.00 wares. But undoubtedly the fall of the brick and mortar record giants as we know them is well on it's way.

Granted, downloadable music is here to stay. Fast, convenient, flexible and affordable. I still rather buy most of my music on CD. Currently most CDs do not have DRM built in which means you can rip them and burn them to any device you own... make copies in any format to play in your car, your home CD player, home DVD/MP3 CD player, iPod and other digital devices that you have.

With online bought music files, the DRM limits your rights, convenience and flexibility. I would also bet that most people just leave their downloaded music stored on their hard drive and iPod only... What if one or the other or both crashed? What if you bought a lot of 99 cent songs over the past year? Are they backed up at least to CD?

At least with a store bought CD you have the master copy in so far as your collection goes. Anything you make off of that copy for your personal use is fine to another format.

Also I go to used record stores where you can find used CDs in pretty good condition for the same price as a fully downloadable iTunes album or even less! A lot of used CD singles sell for a dollar or less.

The used CD store is also a good place to buy vinyl records, tapes and even 8-tracks.... this can be beneficial if you are looking for old music that for some reason or another record companies have chosen not to release on CD. You can always buy the original vinyl or tape and then burn the stuff to your Mac and CD.

The brick and mortar store will stay and for good reason. Yes, with the advent of digital ripping, music is more convient, yes services such as iTunes, Connect, etc, are doing a great job of capturing this "on demand market". However, please keep in mind that the CD (much like the cassette, and vinyl -with the exception of DJ's) will phase out fairly soon. We're actually looking at the last several years now of the CD market.

With that said, enter DVD Audio. 96 bit digital 5.1 impressions. With this type of technology already on the market and a few daring labels making the switch slowly with classical and jazz titles first, the CD is pretty much doomed. (I watched this same cycle happen between Vinyl vs CD).

Now, with that said, Mp3, Atrac, and WMA are all lossy formats that capture only a fraction of the 16bit quality of CDs. If you consider that CD is actually an "inferior" product (it was once belived to be superior to vinyl but many audiophiles now know different.), when DVD Audio really starts to emerge, tons of audiophiles will "again" re-purchase thier collections only this time, DVD Audio IS much better than CD. The ability to imagine actually being in a concert, or in a recording studio with the artist has just gone up ten-fold.

Now where am I going with all this? Well current bandwidth standards are no where close to being able to comfortably transfer dvd-audio sized files through the internet. Most, if not all of these DVD's will have to stay on DVD-discs for the time being...

Why can't a digital service like amazon than simply sell these online and get rid of brick and mortar? Because since it's an emerging tech, it's something people will have to walk into, pick up, and listen to before they can be convinced that the 20-30 somewhat dollars that they pay will be worth it. You can't do this online, it has to be done in person.

Alas, after many years, digital bandwidth will catch up, 96 bit 5.1 ripping tech will have beoome common place, and itune "like" stores will be selling it all again. The next gen disc will be available... Perhaps 16Mbit next time around. And the cycle will begin again.

So yeah, in my absolutely laymen's point of view, brick and mortar are here to stay for the foseeable future.