For those who enjoy this subject:

http://daringfireball.net/2004/08/2004_wont_be_like_1984

WARNING: That is a well-thought out article that doesn't resort to name-calling or wild generalizations. Enter only if you think you can handle that sort of thing.

I think RC would do well to read that article. I've read alot of Daring Fireball's work and its very well done, especially this article.

The thing that amazes me is that SONY- (the eletronic entertainment leader) and MS (the PC monopoly) are not working together closely. In fact, they seem to be working against each other when it comes to music players an digital music distribution. As long as that reality continues, I think Apple can continue to lead the market rather nicely. If MS and Sony create a tightly integrated format/software/device/download connection, watch out. The device is the lynchpin here, just like MS needed the IBM PC to make Windows a viable player. Right now, they have no lynchpin to hitch their WMA wagon to (or no device with a strong consumer brand and value prop). When it comes to the device, SONY is the only other brand that has the potential to matter right now (sorry Creative and iRiver), and they aren't very interested in helping MS right now (made obvious by their Netwalkman with it's proprietary audio format--SONY has it's record labels to think about I guess). Or maybe the Playstation and Xbox wars are just too much of a competitive factor between them. Whatever--it makes for a lousy market strategy if you ask me. Yeah for Apple--rock on mightly little iPod!

I hope Steve Jobs and Apple keep "screwing up" like this! Before it is all over, they may fumble their way to 64 bit processing, screaming fast dual-processor machines, beautiful HD FP displays, an AIO digital hub that will fit nicely in your living room, possibly even powerful graphic design and easy-to-use consumer applications. Wait a minute...

ANd not worry about Apple.

They can figure it is the 80s for a few more years and never know what hit them.

The exciting thing about Apple's future is that eventually the pieces will all fall in place - including component shortages - and at that time Apple will be very strong. Just try to think about how things would be today if IBM didn't have problems with 970FX fabrication and ramped up production last Dec/Jan (with the dual 2.5's shipping in March and the G5 iMac in April) and if there were no shortages of the HDs for the iPod mini. That alone would be enough to scare Dell.

The iMac is also going to drive the PC makers nuts because they will not be able to match it and have a low price. Lots of engineering involved in developing the new iMac and Dell certainly invest that heavily to compete.

It ain't 1984 and Apple is on a roll.

Quote

Anonymous wrote:
The thing that amazes me is that SONY- (the eletronic entertainment leader) and MS (the PC monopoly) are not working together closely. In fact, they seem to be working against each other when it comes to music players an digital music distribution. As long as that reality continues, I think Apple can continue to lead the market rather nicely. If MS and Sony create a tightly integrated format/software/device/download connection, watch out. The device is the lynchpin here, just like MS needed the IBM PC to make Windows a viable player.

Interesting points.

Apple is moving the market back to a hardware-centric model in terms of the iPod. Is there a commodity-level product that can overwhelm the market to drive down iPod sales? Not yet.

The Christmas quarter (starting 10/01) will propel the iPod forward. Consumer electronics are not on most people's shopping lists in the first calendar quarter. Unless the iPod's competitors can get a product into the market in time for Christmas, it's another six months before an opportunity arises again.

The iPod's leadership will continue. The question is what will Apple do to maintain its leadership come summer 2005 or do to exploit the iPod's popularity to increase Mac CPU sales.