Despite Apple's Popularity, Survey Says Holiday PC Sales to be Lackluster
First on TMO - Despite Apple's Popularity, Survey Says Holiday PC Sales to be Lackluster
by , 7:00 AM EDT, October 12th, 2004
A new poll finds a little less than a quarter of Americans will find a personal computer under their Christmas tree this December as consumers appear to be tightening their spending going into the holiday buying season. That could spell trouble for Apple Computer and a number of other PC makers who count on Christmas sales for almost one-third of their annual business.
The Investors Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (IBD/TIPP) Home Computer Purchase Outlook Index for September shows of 1,017 people polled, only 24% said they were likely to buy a personal computer for home use before Christmas.
"This might spell trouble for Christmas," said Constantine Kambanis, an analyst for TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. "I was surprised (by the results). I was expecting at least somewhat of an increase until December."
The all-important holiday season accounts for nearly one-quarter (22.83%) of the United States' annual retail sales.
Only 19% of those polled said they were "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to buy a new PC in the next six months. That's down 23% from August numbers. 72% said they would buy in four to six months. The intent to buy a PC in the September poll fell 25% among people ages 18 to 24, 21% among those 45 to 64 and 7% among people 25 to 44. It rose among senior citizens.
More bad news: PC demand among households earning more than US$75,000 a year fell to its lowest point since the poll was started. The index for that income level was down 37% from August.
Apple popularity high
Despite lackluster optimism among consumers to buy a PC this holiday season, Apple Computer remains one of the top three preferred brands in September.
44% who were asked named Dell as the brand they would mostly likely buy when ready to purchase, followed by Hewlett-Packard with 7%. Tied for third was Apple and Gateway (minus its recently acquired eMachines brand) with 5%. Apple had a 3% preferred brand ranking in August.
As for laptops, Apple placed second in a tie with Toshiba with 7% in terms of popularity. Dell was far out in front as the preferred laptop brand to buy with 42%.
Among likely PC buyers, 67% say they will buy a desktop model, 27% thinking a laptop and 6% were not sure.
Apple's Xmas estimates of real interest
High among the interest of investor analysts will be estimates by Apple executives of desktop and laptop Mac fiscal fourth quarter sales to be made this Wednesday. It is then that Apple will announce its fiscal fourth quarter results and discuss its holiday predictions in a conference call to be broadcast live via QuickTime at 5pm EDT. As always, The Mac Observer will provide in-depth coverage.
Analysts polled by Thomson First Call currently expect Apple to earn 18 cents a share, on $2.1 billion in revenue, for its just-ending fiscal fourth quarter. During the same period a year ago, Apple earned 8 cents a share on revenue of $1.71 billion.
Observer Comments
Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:43 am Subject: Failing PC sales = bump in Apple's marketshare!
The reason for Apple's falling marketshare is not that they sold less computers, but that Windows based PC's sold more, percentage wise, than Apple did.
Dissatisfaction with the Windows Platform, and it's associated ills of virus, trojan, and worm attacks (not to mention Adware) has reached a tipping point resulting in a fall off in sales.
As tomorrow's quarterly results will begin to show, Apple will start to take advantage of this dissatisfaction with Windows based systems by selling all the iMacs they can make. A large impact will not be apparent until a full quarter of iMac sales is available.
This will be a very good Christmas season for Apple, and the trend in marketshare will be obvious to all when the results come in.
Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:20 am Subject: Is IBM getting their act together yet?
Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:25 am Subject: Re: rather than buy a Dell
Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:17 pm Subject: re: Build your own screamer
Apple will not sell many computers over christmas because they don't know the meaning of the word "Sale". Their prices already dwarf the $399 computers sold at Circuit city. Your average computer user sees that and gets the idea that you can have a good computer for under $500. Then they hear that apple computers are better but the cheapest imac is $1200 and they think "I'm not spending that much on anyone." I would love to get a mac for Christmas. If I could get a decently loaded machine for under $1500 I might consider it. But because i can't, I'm going to wait until I can really afford it, rather than making an impulse purchase to have it now. Selling an ipod mini for $244 when the suggested retail is $249 is not a sale, it's a joke. Apple will never make a serious dent until they cut their profit margins at opportune times, like say, the holidays.
Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:47 pm Subject: Take a chill pill!
Quotemetavurt wrote:
wow, guest, last time i checked the demographics of mac-heads, um, we don't friggin' waste time in the "garage". we like using our computers, not tinkering on them.
wakey wakey widdle wost pc user.....
QuoteWow geez guys it's not like he said build your own PC and ditch your Mac. I use my Mac as my primary, but the PC's that I do have I built myself. I control the brand (and thus quality) of each component and make sure I get the best price. Are we supposed to trust Dell to do that? Boy we sure are dumb! And you guys obviously have very little clue what you are talking about in the first place. I mean what do you think we're sitting in workshops with soldering irons or something? There are standards. These things just plug together.John@was wrote:
I'll bet the girls just go wild over your kit-car, too.
QuoteWow geez guys it's not like he said build your own PC and ditch your Mac. I use my Mac as my primary, but the PC's that I do have I built myself. I control the brand (and thus quality) of each component and make sure I get the best price. Are we supposed to trust Dell to do that? Boy we sure are dumb! And you guys obviously have very little clue what you are talking about in the first place. I mean what do you think we're sitting in workshops with soldering irons or something? There are standards. These things just plug together.[/quote]John@was wrote:
I'll bet the girls just go wild over your kit-car, too.
Yeah I have a diehard Linux PC building friend who enjoys talking Mac with me. His wife keeps budding him for an Apple laptop. I think I'm wearing him down, he'll give in sooner or later. If I ever wanted a PC I'd have him build it before going to the likes of Dell.
Tue Oct 12, 2004 7:19 pm Subject: Polls and stats …
Before crying or partying, let’s wait for the actual figures to be in !
Do they give any inkling as to what their sample was ? How do they go about picking their targets ?
20 % of the US population is what, about 56-58 million ? 5 % of that is 2.8-2.9 million: I doubt Apple can build that many desktops in a quarter. As a shareholder, I would definitely LOVE to be wrong … about $3-4 billion in desktops alone would be sweet indeed …
Just because of this good news, I’m placing an order for 500 shares … ![]()
Well I dropped over $4K on my Powerbook (and accessories) when I bought it earlier this year. The fact that I could have bought a Dell for less than half of that didn't faze me at all, I got great VALUE for that price.
Windows is an abomination. People call me to bail them out after their Windows computers are owned by all the malware that is out there feasting on their systems. I charge $100 just to show them how to purge their systems of spyware and adware, Add another $100 to reformat and reload their systems, if I have to go that far.
Of course that is only a temporary fix. In six months they call me again. I always tell them to take their Windows system out to the curb on trash day and get an Apple to stop bothering me with their Windows problems. It usually takes three visits before they take my advice. The only time I hear from them after that is to tell me how happy they are with OSX.
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