Really, things look good for the portable player market as a whole, but Apple will continue to capture the lion's share of that market.

Think about this: even if Apple sells 10 million iPods a year, that's still a fraction of the potential market. Worldwide computer sales around around 150 million a year, and music sales could easily approach, even surpass that. Think about it: love of music is nearly universal.

70% of a 14 million unit/year market is great, but 50% of 50 million unit/year market is even better from a top- and bottom-line perspective. And frankly, I don't expect Apple's share to drop that low.

So, even if Apple's share does decline a percentage basis, in a market that will only expand as a whole, they stand to gain no matter what.

Yeah, Apple may only have, say 60% of the Market Share in a year, but I guarantee they'll be selling more units as the market for MP3 players continues to grow.

Oh, but we know how these folks work, don't we? the ONLY INDICATOR THAT MATTERS is Market Share. that's why Apple's gonna quit making computers soon. Very soon.

Right.

Would you rather have 100% of a 100,000-person market or 50% of a 1,000,000-person market.

Yeah. Thought so.

P.S. I won't even bring up the fact that once Apple gets the iPod Micro in stores, their Share of Overall MP3 Players will increase from the (what is it?) 62% it is now.

I just restated jimothy's point.

Sorry!

(It WAS a point worth making twice, I think.)

Apple 10% - 15% of 100 million annual sales by 2010

(Walkman only did 300 million because China, India etc weren't buying much personal tech back then).

iTMS 20% - 25% of download market by 2010 and more profitable than iPod.

From the other competitors I reckon Samsung may make the biggest challenge.

You really think that Apple will quit making computers? I doubt it. I believe, as do others, in the "halo effect" and believe that Apple's Mac sales will only improve because of the iPod. Remember, the Mac is the hub in the digital hub.

Say it with me now: "NOOOOOO!!!!!!! We're DOOOMED!!!!"

Apple just introduced a color screen iPod that also holds photos

The iPhoto color looks cool, but I'm surprised (despite the fact that the rumors stated this) that it doesn't have a built-in way to import photos from a digital camera card (compact flash, etc). I assume it'll work with Griffin's adaptor (or an updated version of it), but it still would have been nice to have it built in.

Plus, I had heard that the Griffin adaptor is excruciating slow (to the point of being unsuable) for large photos. I shoot with a 6 megapixel DSLR, and 8+ MP cameras are becoming common. It's precisely the avid photographer, the type shoots hundreds of high-resolution photos, that would benefit from the iPod Photo. Let's hope Apple and Griffin (or another accessory maker) work together to allow us to really take advantage of this cool new gadget.

Oh, and Apple and Griffin--just let me know if you'd like me to test out these things for ya!

that Apples market share could climb even further? True $599 is a bit steep for most folks, and it's appeal may be limited to some degree, but it certainly helps lock up the upper end of the market. And with rumors abounding about a forthcoming microPod, Apple could just sweep the low end market aside and steal home right in front of Real, Creative, Rio, MS, and the rest of the has beens. Time will tell, where will you place your bet?

"There's no way Micros**t Windows could sustain more than 70 percent share over time. That's very very difficult to do especially when the product is based on a commoditized component, the personal computer."

Who could possibly argue with this?

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Guest wrote:
Time will tell, where will you place your bet?

this just says in your face analysts!

count the number of sleeves for one, and the number of ipod exclusive accessories. noticed too most accessories arre made for use with ipod controls or docking connector. no other competiting audio player has this mny accessories available - kinda like what pc users say anout mac games. still awaiting video capture but i think its onits way..