First Bush wins and now this...is there any good news this morning?

Apple is just RIPE to release a flash based ipod after hearing this news

keep things to the mac please.

ipod still commands the landscape. Wish they would get rid of the DRM limitations.

solid-state players currently store in between 64MB and 512MB of data, with 256MB being the most common size that I've seen.

[language edit. -x]

"While the iPod is doing extremely well, expanding that market any more is extremely tough. It's about as high as you can go."

Given the continuing price drops on flash memory, I can see Apple entering the flash-based market with a 256MB at $99 after Christmas. $99 for click-wheel ease-of-use.

The 60GB iPod Photo notwithstanding, this will be another way for Apple to keep expanding its iPod market.

iPod market share is only 90%? Call Paul Thurrot, Apple is doomed!!!

Seriously though, I don't see what the fuss is about. Everyone knew ahead of time that HP's iPod would take share from the Apple branded one, but if they sell twice the amount, it's better for Apple.

This is particularly important in the context of the "format war" taking place right now. Apple needs to get as many iPods as possible, whatever the name on them, on the street as quickly as possible. The dominating number of iPod users vs. the competing formats is what will force AAC and Fairplay to become the standard platform for digital music (and video?), and then Apple can dictate terms whhen, not if, they begin to license the technology.

This is also why the rumors of an iminent release of a flash based iPod after the holidays should be believed. Apple will not leave this hole for the competitors to fill, but they would rather wait another 2 months and sell as many high-priced players as possible before lowering their average selling point (and corresponding margin per unit sold).

Although the above article states:

"The September numbers were highly affected by the release of the fourth-generation iPod," NPD analyst Steven Baker told TMO. "That really 'goosed' the numbers. While the iPod is doing extremely well, expanding that market any more is extremely tough. It's about as high as you can go."

I saw today an analyst projection today for fourth quarter iPod sales of 2.7 million. I believe that a 40% quarter to quarter increase is pretty good in most businesses.

Slipped?

OK, my mathin' skills might not be so good, but when I add 87.3 + 3.6 I get 90.9. Let's say 91%.

So iPod share slipped 92% to 91%? This is news? This matters how? One percent don't mean nuthin'.

They're really desparate to tear the iPod down, aren't they?

Also, notice how HP went from no market presence to number 2, practically overnight, just by playing nice with Apple?

You listening Dell?

I would like to cut-n-paste my previous comments in another thread:

"At present, iPod has 92% of harddisk-based player and 65% of all MP3 players. The other 35% MP3 players are mostly flash-based players, most of which are priced below $200.

Apple need to produce a low cost iPod to sell into this 35% segment for the following reasons:

- forestall other media and DRM formats the opportunity to be the standard content delivery format

- weaken the competitors (otherwise, 35% could become 50% and then 65%, ...), do it now while u can

As to whether the low cost iPod will be a harddisk-based or a Flash-based, or how it looks like, is Apple's call - they know what to do.

If Apple is to produce a low cost iPod now, it is likely to be a flash-based than a harddisk-based for the following reasons:

- From a manufacturing perspective, a flash-based player is always cheaper to produce than a harddisk-based player (have moving parts)

- It is possible to design a flash-based player where the compact flash can be user-upgradeable, and as such can ride on future cheaper and higher capacity compact flash. Also mean can cater to different customers' needs (128MBytes to 8 Gbytes)."

Enough said.

Another example of statistical mumbo-jumbo. The market expanded enormously. In that market, Apple sold a record number of Apple-branded iPods. HP sold HP-branded iPods. A bunch of wannabes sold a few hard-drive players which didn't even previously exist. The anal-ysts, however, are concentrating on that idiotic market-share number and, while not declaring the death of either Apple or the iPod, are making dire-sounding statements about them. It must be tough to go through life stupid. Grrrr...

Oh, I forgot to say, 92% and 91% are acceptable fluctuations. What I am most concerned is the competitive threat from flash-based players. This segment comprises mostly casual buyers who are pretty price sensitive as opposed to harddrive players buyers who are more sophisticated and design conscious. As the market matures, the percentage of casual buyers will be much more than the percentage of sophisticated buyers. Current price of iPod mini is too high to reach the majority of the casual buyers, a lower price iPod is necessary.

"Apple's U.S. market share of hard drive-based portable media players fell 5% in September to 87.3% as more consumers bought flash-based players and Hewlett-Packard with its branded iPod took share from Apple, according to numbers from the NPD Group research firm."

How can a slip in Hard Drive-based SHARE be attributed to an increase in Flash-based sales? Flash-based devices don't have hard drives and so don't feature in Hard Drive-based figures. If iPod has lost ground in the Hard Drive-based sector it must have been to other hard drive based players, surely?

Quote

jadams wrote:
"Apple's U.S. market share of hard drive-based portable media players fell 5% in September to 87.3% as more consumers bought flash-based players and Hewlett-Packard with its branded iPod took share from Apple, according to numbers from the NPD Group research firm."

How can a slip in Hard Drive-based SHARE be attributed to an increase in Flash-based sales? Flash-based devices don't have hard drives and so don't feature in Hard Drive-based figures. If iPod has lost ground in the Hard Drive-based sector it must have been to other hard drive based players, surely?

I think what they are implying is that when the consumer makes a buying decision to buy a flash player, they are at the same time deciding NOT buying a HDD based player ... thus affecting the HDD player market.

But as other point out - 1% is not worth trying to interpret - because some companies count SOLD as anything that leaves their warehouse (some companies 'goose' sales that way by offering an extra discount to retailers/wholesalers that way - some companies illegally do that at the end of a quarter or year either as company policy or some sales guy wanting a grreater bonus).

If you want a REAL discussion, point, figure out how much Apple makes on an ipod it sells versus one that HP sells.

Refer to this article http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index.cfm?NewsID=10049.

Most of the MP3 players sold in China are flash-based. And Chinese are status conscious. As such, another reason why it is paramount that Apple need to come out with a competitive iPod for the other 35% segment. Being the top dog, it should be easy for Apple to capture a lion share in the China market.

Apple’s market share in the growing market of HDD mp3 players went down 1.1 % (including HP) … Just the total unit GROWTH for Apple, considering its dominance of the market, was probably very close to, if not actually larger than the *TOTAL* sales of all others combined !
Then, Apple Store sales weren’t included, adding to the total … but we have to add Dell’s sales (same situation), which probably doesn’t even out. BUT September ended with iPods on backorder … which forced the market share decline !
So a lot is flawed in these numbers … statistics is a very valuable tool when used properly and well understood, but analysts and commentators just seem to want to rush to doomsday conclusions, as if the popularity of the iPod threatened them personnally … weird ;(

Can someone explain this to me?

"Apple's U.S. market share of hard drive-based portable media players fell 5% in September to 87.3% as more consumers bought flash-based players"?

So Apple's market share in HARD DRIVE BASED players falls because consumers buy more flash based players. (Worth noting, the larger size cards have halved in price the past 3 months)

Guest, the title is misleading.

Apple's share in harddrive only market is 87.3 (not counting HP) and 90.9 (including HP); in overall market is 58.6% in Sep. The corresponding figures in Aug is 92% and 65.8% respectively.

No need to read too deeply into the figures yet. Need to watch the figures for another 3-6 months before we can make any good assessment of the trend.

What we are looking for are:

- Will iPod continue to loose market share to the low cost (mostly flash-based) players?

- Is HP helping to grow the market for iPod? In terms of unit sales and market share

- Is the overall market and its two segments still growing?

I bought an iPod at the online Apple Store rather than at Target or RadioShack (HP branded) because they offered free custom engraving and shipping at the same price. That reduced the Apple' retail markshare in my home by 50%.

Think this through:

1) lets index market at 100 (apple had 92, others 8)
2) Article says HD sales increased 12% so market goes to 112
3) Apple now has 90.9% of 112 which is 102, others have 10

4) Apple growth is then = 102-92 = 10.

IN ONE MONTH ALONE APPLE SALES GREW MORE THAN THE ENTIRE SIZE OF THE REST OF THE MARKET

NOT BAD IN MY BOOKS!!!

JAVA

Interesting perspective. However this mean the growth is slowing.

Growing10% per month is about 130% per year which is slower than the almost 500% growth from FY 02 to FY 03.

1) lets index market at 100 (apple had 92, others 8)
2) Article says HD sales increased 12% so market goes to 112
3) Apple now has 90.9% of 112 which is 102, others have 10
4) Apple growth is then = 102-92 = 10.

IN ONE MONTH ALONE APPLE SALES GREW MORE THAN THE ENTIRE SIZE OF THE REST OF THE MARKET

NOT BAD IN MY BOOKS!!!

JAVA[/quote]

Thanks JAVA for taking the pain to mathematically illustrate my previous post. I find it particularly funny that “analysts and commentators” don’t take the trouble …

If the iPod keeps “losing market share“ at this rate, I’m still happy I hold a few shares of AAPL …

90.9% to apple/hp
6.9% to creative/rio/iriver

leaves 2.2% for EVERYONE ELSE

so it is probably fair to assume that sony's share is less than 1% ... ouch

translated another way this means that for every person buying a sony HD based player, 90 people are buying iPods ... double ouch