2005 = 13.5 million ( I expect 15-16 million)
2006 = 23.6 million ( I expect to be as high as 30 million)
2007 = ???

AAPL = 13 (cash hoard) + 24 (Mac worth) + 25 (iPod worth) = $62. Today, AAPL is over $64

By 2010, share of iTMS is 2%

Quote

Mace wrote:

By 2010, share of iTMS is 2%

Mace, it's not as bad as it sounds. I think MacWorld UK simply misinterpreted the analyst's report. Here's a comment I posted to MacNN concerning the 2%:

"$800 million would be 2% of TOTAL projected music sales (CDs, etc., included) rather than just legal downloads. (Last year, total world wide music sales were $32 billion; $800 million would be 2.5% of that figure. Source: http://www.ifpi.org/site-content/statistics/worldsales.html). I haven't seen the research note, but I suspect it correctly states these market share figures, and that the Macworld article misinterpreted the analyst's report.

"2% of the total market share would actually be an increase for Apple, who now holds well less than 1% (with somewhere around $100-$200 million in sales). And when you put it in that perspective, you can see what an incredible opportunity music is for Apple."

This assesment is over optomistic for iPod sales. You all should really take the following in to account:

1. Microsoft doesn't endorse the iPod (and they are the biggest in the industry).
2. The iPod can't play Windows Media, which is the default media format on over 95% of the world's PCs.
3. There are over 200+ players that play WM format and are cheaper than the iPod (and just as good).
4. WM files are smaller and higher quality than Apple's format.
6. Apple has trouble manufacturing iPods to meed demand.
7. The iPod doesn't even have a card slot or wireless.
8. etc, etc, etc.

All this taken together means the iPod is not likely to survive much longer.

Quote

Guest wrote:
This assesment is over optomistic for iPod sales. You all should really take the following in to account:

1. Microsoft doesn't endorse the iPod (and they are the biggest in the industry).
2. The iPod can't play Windows Media, which is the default media format on over 95% of the world's PCs.
3. There are over 200+ players that play WM format and are cheaper than the iPod (and just as good).
4. WM files are smaller and higher quality than Apple's format.
6. Apple has trouble manufacturing iPods to meed demand.
7. The iPod doesn't even have a card slot or wireless.
8. etc, etc, etc.

All this taken together means the iPod is not likely to survive much longer.

Reality Check, did you forget to sign in??

1. Apple hasn't needed 'endorsement' from anyone to get to the position they are currently in. Of course, I'm not counting popular celebrities who used them in music videos just because they liked them and thought they were cool.

2. Actually, the 'default' music format is MP3, which iPod can play perfectly. Also, with iTunes being popular, it will encourage the push of AAC by default.

3. Yet they make a much smaller market than iPod. <sarcasm>Wonder why</sarcasm>.

4. Can someone find the info please?

5. You missed a number :p

6. Only the mini (until recently). The full sized iPod is doing fine.

7. No. But this really only relevant if you want to dump photos into it.

8. Blah, blah, blah.

All this taken together voids your (weak) argument.

When Walt Mossberg praises another DMP (digital music player) as an 'iPod killer', I'm sit up an take a listen. Until then, Apple doesn't have to worry about anything. Which is just as well because they won't rest on their laurels anyway.

I think you have misinterpreted what Wolf said about 2% and Apples marketshare for music downloads. As I understod it he doesn't expect Apple to loose more marketshare than about 2%, so Apple would still have around 60% + of the market for legal downloads, which would be worth around $800 million.

1. microsoft is not the biggest in the music industry , which is what is relevant when i want to buy a music player. the last thing i want is something crashing on me when i listen to music. For the average joe, if it is m$ endorsed it means it is a computer product= hassle

2. take a search on kaza to see how much files are on wmw. none

3. cheaper and not selling => they are not as good

4. i doubt this AAC. is 40% smaller than mp3, i believe

7. ipod will evolve. I may need wireless (but take care of battery drain) , why would i need a removable 256 mb slot card on a 40gb ipod ?

BUT i still agree 13,6 million is a high figure. i expect more 8 million in 2005 and 8-10 M in 2006

8. YOU FORGOT THAT MOTOROLA HAS SIGNED AN AGREEMENT WITH APPLE TO MAKE AN APPLE MUSIC PLAYER STANDARD ON HIS PHONE . MOTOROLA =16% OF MARKET SHARE ON A ESTIMATED 1,5 BILLION TERMINALS IN THE WORLD. So if you take this revenue into account you see that the apple related music revenue is far from disappearing. Will it translate into more ipod sales or sales of ipod phone, is too soon to tell, but it is surely a positive factor

You write some very true facts but use them to draw very wrong conclusions.

1. Already addressed by previous posters.

2. The iPod can't play Windows Media, which is the default media format on over 95% of the world's PCs.
True but even though WMA is on those PCs, over 75% of music files use MP3 which the iPod supports, and AAC is fastest-growing format according to a recent survey. And both WM and Quicktime are now tied, each being used as the primary media format by about 35% of the market. WM used to have a huge lead.

3. There are over 200+ players that play WM format and are cheaper than the iPod (and just as good).
True except "(and just as good)." So let's add one more fact: The 2 iPods have sold more GBs into the market than all 200+ of the other players put together. Since no one is forcing anyone to buy an iPod, the consumer market is speaking very very clearly about which player/store is better, unless in arrogance, you believe those 6 million iPod owners are all dimwits.

4. WM files are smaller and higher quality than Apple's format.
Highly debatable, but this is subjective. Doesn't matter, by early next year, Apple will be using the open standard HE-AAC, which provides the same quality as AAC but using 35% fewer bits. Microsoft hasn't yet issued any FUD remarks about their next version of WMA.

6. Apple has trouble manufacturing iPods to meed demand.
True, but even as supplies have increased, demand has increased even more! So you are acknowledging that iPod demand so thoroughly dominates any of the other 200+ players.

7. The iPod doesn't even have a card slot or wireless.
Obviously, a card slot and wireless are not yet in demand, since it hasn't affected the increasing demand for the iPod. And Apple will figure out what neat capabilities people want next on their iPods, and then it will appear on future iPods.

Other useless facts that you left out:
8. There are over 10+ WMA-based digital music stores, including MSN and Wal-Mart.
9. The iPod doesn't have video.
10. Sony hasn't introduced a good player yet, and Creative has unilaterally declared war (without consulting the UN).

Trying to figure out the tech of 2006 is already a stretch of the imagination … 2010 ???
By then, the iPod great-grandchild might have a 4 TB memory chip, a folding LCD screen (or VR goggles, or whatever the new and improved peripheral might be …) and full HD video streaming capability … while being the size of a matchbox and costing $59.95 !
Let’s be reasonable and talk about this Xmas season and 2005. At the rate the iPod is growing, if Apple sells 4.8 million of them this quarter, a rate of 4-5 million per quarter next year is quite possible. Let’s not forget how everybody was taken aback that more iPods were sold in Q2 2004 than in Q1. That far enough ahead for speculation, IMHO.

I want to live again...please god, let me live again.

all of you people who are obsessesed with this iPod crap, get over yourselves

So? This is an Apple forum.

theres figures are to tally un founded i presonally dont see the JRD of the i pod over seeing last years italian figures overlooking arab countries(or collinies like obviously) also due to the rising cost of inflation i have been forced to relocate the current assets into forige bankaccounts (cuba) here by causing me to to involve myself withe public relations i have also noticed there is a single european currency, within you sales ledgure! i have also been intough with prof taylor fedrick phd of the scientific management sector he has been supplying us with side pollicies of sustainability and sufficent turnover there fore causing us to loose our custom. Adam Sloan AVCE + Scott Walker ALSO AVCE