Merrill Analyst Still Expects Flash-Based iPod in Early 2005
TMO Reports - Merrill Analyst Still Expects Flash-Based iPod in Early 2005
by , 2:00 PM EST, November 29th, 2004
Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Milunovich reiterated Monday that he still expects Apple Computer to unveil a flash memory-based iPod in the first quarter of 2005.
In a research note obtained by The Mac Observer, Mr. Milunovich wrote that he believed the new device will be priced between US$149 and $199 and that it could possibly be announced at Macworld Expo San Francisco beginning January 10. He made the same prediction back on October 25 in a commentary first reported by TMO.
Mr. Milunovich wrote that the MP3 flash market is five times the size of the hard disk drive-based player market in units and about two times in revenue. It is also fragmented with the leader, Samsung, at only an 8 percent share. The flash MP3 market is expected to be $2.6 billion in 2004, slightly larger than the HDD player market at $2.3 billion. Combined, the music player market could be $8.1 billion by 2006.
"This is a market Apple should want to participate in because it will pull new customers into the iPod/iTunes 'ecosystem,' he wrote. "We believe consumers will hesitate to switch once they become accustomed to the iPod's scrollwheel or have purchased a number of iTunes (which only work on iPods). The land grab is on."
It should be noted that Mr. Milunovich was also the same analyst who predicted the iPod photo would not debut until sometime next year. Instead, it was announced within a week of his original prediction on October 25.
Observer Comments
Mon Nov 29, 2004 5:11 pm Subject: It will never happen
QuoteThought hdd is 70% and flash is 30%. In any case, from business perspective, it is necessary for Apple to compete in the low cost 30% of the market. Other than for the money, it will impede the growth of other formats esp WMA.Mr. Milunovich wrote that the MP3 flash market is five times the size of the hard disk drive-based player market in units and about two times in revenue.
Even though is flash based, it should still be called an iPod mini.
By the way, SJ did not say he will not offer a flash based iPod. He merely joked that competitors' flash based players are stored in the cupboard and not use.
Mon Nov 29, 2004 5:16 pm Subject: Jimothy still thinks analysts are blindly guessing
Mon Nov 29, 2004 5:22 pm Subject: Re: It will never happen
Quotetechnoguy100 wrote:
Steve Jobs said Apple would never offer a flash-based iPod, and he's one stubborn guy, so I doubt the rumors are correct.
Steve says a lot of things that don't end up being true. Plus, I do think that stuff was more joke than fact. So yeah, a flash-player is possible.
Of course, I also agree with the post that says the analysts don't really know anything either.
So in other words, I have no idea, but it's certainly possible either way.
QuoteCould you find a specific quote? Steve tends to make statements like "Apple has no plans to introduce a flash based iPod in the forseeable future." as opposed to "The Earth will be absorbed by the Sun before Apple offers a flash based iPod." Or we could take the example of the iPod photo. Steve always said it was just about the music, but now we have this new iPod that does photos. I think the "iPod Micro" makes sense given the market and Apple's position and I expect to see this as one of the many exciting announcements in Janurary.technoguy100 wrote:
Steve Jobs said Apple would never offer a flash-based iPod, and he's one stubborn guy, so I doubt the rumors are correct.
Mon Nov 29, 2004 5:47 pm Subject: Steve meant Flash not flash
When you include worldwide sales, the number of flash-based players increase dramatically. The 70/30 numbers, I think, are US-only numbers. So I for one believe that a flash-based player is coming because the ultimate goal is to make Quicktime/MPEG-4 the commercial multimedia standard, not just a paper standard. If QT does become the standard, Apple will sell a lot more servers and Macs. If Windows Media becomes the standard, Apple is dead (oops, invoked the death knell counter!).
By the way, Steve meant it when he said that flash-based players are useless, but left out that it's because they don't have the easy-to-use iPod interface 
At the time, he also forgot to say that all hard-drive players from other manufacturers are useless as well
Tue Nov 30, 2004 5:45 am Subject: Hell has frozen over before.
Well, we all know that hell has frozen over before for Steve Jobs so a flash based player is definately a possibility. Steve has been known to talk about the problems or difficulties with a given situation or technology and then present a new product as the solution to those problems. Whatever Apple comes up with as a flash based player, expect it to be innovative and an "out of the box" solution.
Apple is already making tons of $$$ on the iPod as it stands. At this point they need to fight for dominance in the format wars. I don't think anyone will argue that a $149 flash based iPod would sell like hotcakes and throw the fragmented flash player market into shambles. Apple can use such a player to lock WAY more people into iTunes (and away from WMP).
QuoteTotally agreed. Once Apple dominated the music format, they can parlay this dominance into dominance of video/movie format.Biff wrote:
Apple is already making tons of $$$ on the iPod as it stands. At this point they need to fight for dominance in the format wars. I don't think anyone will argue that a $149 flash based iPod would sell like hotcakes and throw the fragmented flash player market into shambles. Apple can use such a player to lock WAY more people into iTunes (and away from WMP).
A flash-based iPod is also a better platform for adding features like WIFI, BlueTooth, phone functionalities, radio, ... because of power requirements, size, weight, heat and cost considerations.
Comments are currently closed. Please email the author instead.
Recent Headlines - Updated March 20th
- Fri, 5:55 PM
- Games - Namco Releases Match-Three Game Tinseltown Dreams to the App Store
- 5:16 PM
- News - iPad Launch Day Deadline for Developers: March 27
- 5:11 PM
- News - Steve Jobs Helps Promote Organ Donor Legislation
- 4:06 PM
- iPad - VIVmag Shows Off Interactive iPad Version in the Works
- 3:07 PM
- App Store - Microsoft Yanks Bing App From Foreign App Stores
- 2:05 PM
- iObserver - Analysts Downgrade Troubled Palm Amid Severe Revenue Drop
- 1:35 PM
- In-Depth Review - PhoneSuite MiLi Packs a Powerful Punch
- 1:11 PM
- News - YouTube to Viacom: Sue Yourself
- 11:34 AM
- Product News - PocketMac for BlackBerry 5 Improves Snow Leopard Support
- 10:59 AM
- News - Apple iGroups Patent Hints at Social Networking Plans
- 10:20 AM
- Hot Forum Topic - Reader Discussion: Who Will Buy Palm?
- 9:50 AM
- News - Bharti Airtel Lands India iPhone 3GS Deal
The Mac Observer Reader Specials
- TypeStyler For Mac OS X is Now Shipping! Download The Free Fully Functional 60 Day Tryout at www.typestyler.com
Mac Memory and Hard Drives: MacBook Pro Memory 8GB kits $349.99! iMac Memory 4GB DDR Kits for $109.99! Mac Pro Memory 4GB Kits for $135.99! Mac Hard Drives 1.5TB Seagate SATA II for $147.99! Click Here!
- CarMD Handheld Device & Mac/PC Software System saves you time and money on car maintenance and repair. Buy at www.CarMD.com! Save $10 with code TMO2.
If you're using a Mac, then you've gotta check out Full Tilt Poker for Mac. This Full Tilt Poker bonus code does the unthinkable, it actually rewards!For the latest Apple products use Ciao, a price comparison website, to find laptops like MacBook Air. Then find the best prices on MP3 players and use our comparison tool to evaluate mobile phones like the Apple iPhone.
