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TMO Reports - Analysts Agree: 4 Million iPods Under Xmas Trees; mini Shortage?

by , 7:10 AM EST, December 23rd, 2004

Over the past few weeks the consensus among technology industry analysts is holding firm that Apple Computer will sell around four million iPod's this holiday season -- twice as many as last year. But spot checks show the iPod mini is the toughest player to find in just the right color.

Despite spotty shortages of certain capacities and colors, supply appears to be following demand. Consumer in the U.S. have been met with some unavailability of iPod's, only to find plenty at another retail location just blocks away.

"I was at an Apple store just yesterday and the place was packed with people looking at iPods and iPod accessories," west coast IDC analyst Susan Kevorkian told theReuters news agency, Wednesday. "There's no question that iPods are an extremely hot item this holiday season."

NPD Group analyst Stephen Baker said, "If it sold two million last quarter and it's going to sell four million this quarter, that puts an awful lot of stress on the supply chain. Apple would have to build all those extra ones for quite a while, going back into the summer."

But one analyst believes Apple could have sold more iPod mini's this quarter had it had enough hard drives from its supplier, Hitachi.

"We believe that iPod mini sales this quarter will be capped at less than 2 million units as Apple will likely max out the 1" hard drive manufacturing capacity at Hitachi Global Storage, the only supplier currently," Lehman brothers analyst Harry Blount wrote to clients on Dec. 7. "We note that Seagate also has a 1" hard drive product which we believe has been qualified by Apple. However, we do not believe Apple is yet selling the STX product as it comes in a 5 (gigabyte) configuration versus the 4GB capacity currently being offered in the mini."

Observer Comments

Show: Subjects Only | Full Comments
Close Name:DawnTreader -   TMO Staff Posts: 13380 Joined: 04 Jan 2002
Subject:

I suspect total iPod shipments will more than exceed 4 million units this quarter. Apple's toughest challenge is drying up retail and distribution channel inventory of the products ahead of new model releases.

Close Name:Mace Posts: 9012 Joined: 07 Aug 2003
Subject:

More like 5-6 million.

I was thinking about the drying up of channels issue. If the only improvement in 20/40GBytes iPod is battery then they can just distribute this once the original version sold out. I am assuming no change in prices.

As for iPod mini, if there are changes in color then it will be tricky. Otherwise, same way as above.

View Name:Guest
Subject: iPod Grand Plan
Close Name:Small White Car Posts: 1933 Joined: 02 Jul 2004
Subject: Re: iPod Grand Plan

Quote
Anonymous wrote:
Here's a thought. Sell millions of iPods and then suddenly discontinue all support for Windows. C'mon, it's funny! Millions upon millions faced with switching to the Mac to keep the iTMS and iTunes.


lol

Ok, that is the WORST idea I can think of...but it's ALSO the funniest, I'll admit!

(Why do those two things go together so, so often?)

Close Name:DawnTreader -   TMO Staff Posts: 13380 Joined: 04 Jan 2002
Subject:

This is no longer a Mac v. Windows environment. The big battle is for the avenue for delivery of content over the 'Net and wireless channels. It's now a QuickTime v. WMP war and the more Windows users who download iTunes the more QuickTime installations Apple has available for the delivery of content.

Close Name:Mace Posts: 9012 Joined: 07 Aug 2003
Subject:

Agree with Dawn. Is not a platform war between Mac and Windows.

Is QuickTime vs WMP as the delivery format for digital media over internet, satellite and wireless channels.

The prize is not just the licensing fees of using QT, also cuts from embedding shopping too. Ofc, for Apple, increased platform/QT streaming server/QT applications (e.g. FCP) sales.



Last edited by Mace on Fri Dec 24, 2004 9:53 pm; edited 3 times in total
Reply | Quote
View Name:Guest
Subject: Thank you SWC!
Close Name:Mace Posts: 9012 Joined: 07 Aug 2003
Subject:

Quote
... Frost & Sullivan's research indicated that QuickTime is running nearly neck and neck with Windows Media Player. QuickTime currently has 36.8% of the market, while Windows has 38.2% of the market. Real Player is in third place with 24.9% of the market ...
Source: Keynote by Frank Casanova, senior director of Apple Computer QuickTime product marketing during Oct 04 CTIA Wireless IT & Entertainment Conference.

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