I can't wait until someone loads up on subscription music, and then figures out a way to remove the Janus DRM so that they can get a huge collection of music for a small monthly fee. Once this happens, watch Janus fall apart, and the labels stand more strongly behind the pay-as-you-go model.

Why would I want to pay and pay and pay, and keep on paying, for the same 4 minutes of music. Month after month, year after year. It is not so theoretical that I could pay a few hundred dollars a year for the same few tracks.

I just don't get it.

When the subscription services become portable," wrote Mr. Hellweg, "the effect should be nothing short of revolutionary -- immediately leveling, if not reversing, the current iTunes-dominated digital music market."

Until that is the first time you forget to re-up, or the MS database hiccups, or your computer gets the wrong date in its head, etc. etc. and you lose your whole collection. Then people will realize that rented inline music is worth the paper it's printed on i.e. nothing. Rented music is in the same class of stupid ideals as rented software. Some may fall for it but not me.

[That's crap], if you ask me.

[Edited for language. -Brad]

...Apple will go out of business if they do not port OS X to x86.

For pities sakes, the reason the subscription based services failed was not just because their implementation sucked but because people do not and never have rented music. We just don't.

When the hell will these services learn? I'll laugh when this falls flat on its face.

This is the second article in a few days I have read where someone has made this type of statement. These folks are no doubt somehow being lobbied by MS or others to produce FUD.

Let's just say, for fun, that subscriptions take off . . . . and Apple has to, um, flick a swith to make it active in iTunes. Doh.

Whatever.

The playing field be immidiately leveled if the majority of Music players out the be iPods???

... this is something that Janus doesnt address. CD burning is the 1 thing that make me feel like I own the music. At any time I can take my music and put it into an unprotected format. With all subscription services anytime you burn music you are paying an additional fee on top of your subscription. Usually like $1 per song (sounds familiar?)

CD burning is the one thing that gives power to the consumer on iTMS. Record execs would love to take that feature out and keep all music stuck with DRMs... like Janus.

Quote

Guest wrote:
These folks are no doubt somehow being lobbied by MS or others to produce FUD.

MS is much more than a software company. MSNBC, MS Passport ... etc. They are a global conglomerate.

Music subsciptions seem to me very close to subscription radio except more hassle. The principle seems to be that you'll be happy with a full music player of up-to-the-minute music which can be listened to any time you like.... sounds a bit like the radio to me.

Most of us have collections of music dating back years, some of which is modern some of which is embarrassing and some we forget to listen to. Having an ipod full of music allows you to re-discover your music with moments of half-enjoyed embarrassment at hearing 'The frog chorus'.

If you are having to pay for every track you have for as long as you have it, you won't be keeping the music for the future, to listen to only once in a blue moon. Who would admit to paying a regular subscription for keeping anything by Duran-Duran!

I sympathise (in part) with the analysts, they have to identify 'the next big thing (tm)' it's what they're paid for. Problem is subscription music ie radio will always be a niche market. People have wanted to own and keep their music since the wax recording cylinder. A collection of music is not only a representation of who you are or who you'd like to be now but is also a personal history. I for one, mourne the passing of album art with digital music but I'm sure I'll get over it, much as I did with the passing of vinyl. However I still have a collection and unless I purposefully throw it away it'll be there in some form or another in 10 years for me to enjoy/groan/wince at.

[edited for spelling]

this is conjecture, but "hacking" this may be easier than ever

i would be almost willing to bet that the ok scheme is checked when the player is plugged into the computer. this means, rent one month, download everything, and never plug your music player into the computer again

once again, i said almost willing to bet...

TRO

and in other news, apple will go out of business due to the iPod "fad"

either the market is saturated and Apple's sales of the iPod and songs from iTMS will falter because of this or some new form of the technology is going to wipe out the Apple juggernaut in the music arena because Microsoft deems it so.

Next, pull your cranium out of the inverted side of your anterior until you hear the popping noise and then you will feel better.

Analysts. What a concept.

More likely, people will confuse Janus music interface with Janus Mutual Funds and stock brokers will be the ones getting rich, NOT Microsoft.

Page 2 of the article states:

Apple's iTunes, for example, announced it has sold 250,000 million songs since the store went online,

Thats a lot of songs . Sounds to me like Apple's got the market pretty much sewn up.....

This is going to be the easiest thing ever to hack. All it will take is for someone to use some sort of program like Audio Hijack and they can record their rented music to an AIFF thus removing the DRM.

They'll never be able to create protection for sound. It has to come out of a speaker at some point.

Apple is in the lead now, but this is a marathon and a quester billion songs is still a relative drop in the bucket to the music industry.

Music is a very personal thing. It evokes so many emotions to us all. Why rant a music library? It makes more sense to sign up for XM/Sirus to listen to wide varieties of music and but the songs you like for $0.99 at iTMS.

You may be somebody who bought something other than the iPod a year or two ago, before it was obvious to everybody except paid-for analysts that the iPod was going to be the market leader.

So now, if you're thinking about a Janus-enabled player, you'll need to buy a new player ( in marked contrast to those who are still using their original iPods ).

What are you going to choose for a new purchase ?

Some no-name player where you rent your music forever, or are you going to take this as your opportunity to buy an iPod, just like everybody else has ?

Plenty of people bought Betamax when it first came out and VHS was also fresh out.

Did anybody update their original Betamax with a newer, second Betamax once they saw how VHS was the only format in town ?

randompro 42: janus works through the use of a secure clock (meaning you can't change it) inside the portable player, such that it will automatically stop playing after some period of time. it's an autostop until told to go scheme.

with that foundation, there are still many ways for a scheme to work, i.e.,
1. a start/stop date is written into the player and compared to the clock.
2. the clock is really a time, which is reset only when plugged in.

regardless, it just seems like it would be hackable.

by the way, there is a clock inside the iPod although we have access to changing the time.

...another subscription.

The current business model of locking consumers into subscriptions in order to generate a self-renewing source of income (ala Cel Phone and Sirius subscriptions) is just pissing everyone off. Sure, it's easy to start up, but pretty soon you find yourself saddled with several hundreds of dollars worth of subscriptions per month in addition to your usual bills.

People are gewtting sick of this, and they're going to eventually ask the question, "why should I have to RENT music?"

I can see this being popular with kids and teens who can't afford to buy a whole lot of music up front, but they tend not to re-up things like this. As for adults with disposable income, they're just gonna want to buy it outright.

I see this going nowhere (God, I hope...)

First, iTMS holds a 70% not some 90% of the market for songs purchased online.

Janus can be abused. For example, only one student in the dormitory needs to subscribe to Janus music subscription. The rest can share the music in their own digital music players. For iTunes/iTMS/iPod case, the effort is not worthwhile because the cost of so many songs is too high.

That said, corporate, educational institutions and clubs might be interested in subscribing to music.

Is the hardwre and software become worthless if the company either:

a) goes out of business
b) decides the service isn't earning revenue and cancels the service
c) upgrades to newer versions of hardware/software and decides not to continue supporting old users


Any former user of DIVX should know the perils of 'rental' media.

That's right. And anyone who subscribes to this will be virtually sticking their heads up Bill Gate's Ass.

Let's see if I can figure this out:

iTunes Music Store is the market share leader.

iTunes music purchases only work on one portable device, the iPod.

Therefore most people downloading any music at all are downloading from iTMS - and if they're taking it with them, they're using the iPod.

Janus doesn't work on the iPod, the device most legal downloaders are using.

So to get these good people to start using Janus services, these jokers will have to convince the iPod users to buy a new player.

Ooookay. Good luck with that.

It's called a radio and it has allowed "untethered" access to music for decades now. iPod is successful because those of us who want to be our own DJs also want to own our music so we can spin wwhat ever tunes we want when we want.

When we feel a bit more devil may care about what we listen to ... we have radio ... no subscription required. Though if you want it commercial free you now have XM and Sirius.

Please, Bryan, proofread before you post … :
“Janus promises to change this by making it possible for rented music using Microsoft's Windows Media digital rights management can be taken with users on their players”
Does this sentence make any sense ? 0)

”… immediately leveling, if not reversing, the current iTunes-dominated …“
I like the “immediately”, considering that 90% of the mp3 player market is made of incompatible players. I fail to see how Janus can do that unless MS does a Real job on the iPod and cracks the software to allow its own downloads on it … Short of that, we’ll have to wait until at least 50% of the market is taken back by the “rest of them”: a long way to go, it seems, with the shuffle doing its best to devour the other 10%.

Let's see: Napster announced Napster to go back in Sept (see their press releases) and again in Nov for the Audiovox phone. MSN said Janus was ready in Oct and players from Samsung, Creative, iRiver, etc were being sold for Christmas.

Since then, Apple has sold 4.5 million iPods (who can't use Janus). And iTMS has sold 100 million songs (since Oct 14), going from a daily rate of about .5 million to 1.25 million (150% daily rate increase).

Now what was that about " immediately leveling, if not reversing, the current iTunes-dominated …“ (I grant that the big 'marketing push' has not yet begun but did you know that MS (Digital Joy) and Napster (Napster re-launch) have had previous marketing pushes?)

What an analydiot.

This war is over and Microsoft lost.

...Janus two-faced?

I just realized that I learned how to defeat Janus years before it even existed. Check this out, JACK:

Part 1:
1. Plug a microphone into your computer.
2. Open your recording program of choice.
3. Press the 'record' button.

Part 2:
1. Plug a pair of headphones into your Janus music player.
2. Press 'play'.
3. Sandwich the microphone between the headphones.

Look at that, man, I cracked Janus wide open. I must be a genius, or perhaps Microsoft is stupider than my own shoes.

I honestly believe that Microshaft intends to disable the ability of future PCs to record Janus protected songs in future versions of Windows. Hopefully even Wintel drones will realize that seriously crippled PCs are useless.

Quote

LaurieF wrote:
...Janus two-faced?

Yes, the God of "Gates", and doors. As such it will probably be another entry way for virus, worms, spyware and other Windows plagues.

Make no mistake about it, the real purpose of Janus is to give MS control of every PC.

Sounds to me that Janus will be an easy cororate sell. Record companies are looking for the biggest cash cow they can find. I doubt consumers (including myself) are willing to pay and pay and pay. With iPod sales over 10 million and over 250 million iTMS songs SOLD I think that the population has said what they like and are willing to support. It is still conceivable that Janus could be Microsofts newest half ass adventure.

Quote

John F. Braun wrote:
I can't wait until someone loads up on subscription music, and then figures out a way to remove the Janus DRM so that they can get a huge collection of music for a small monthly fee. Once this happens, watch Janus fall apart, and the labels stand more strongly behind the pay-as-you-go model.

I hear ya -- that or simply have their computers recording the sound output. Even with such a "low-tech" approach of "record as you go," suddenly, a $20 or so a month subscription easily becomes a $20 or far more benefit per day to savvy "temporary music subscribers." What were the labels thinking? Really, it's this potential for abuse that makes me wonder how this "celestial jukebox" I hear about could ever be a success, at least with the hackers getting far too much of their money's worth out of it.

They Janus thing might catch on among a few mindless sheep. Look at all the fools that pay $20 a year for antivirus subcriptions per x86 PC to keep thier computers from being destroyed, when they could switch to OS X and forget about such silliness. However, $20 to Symantec annually is for self-defense, not partying with music. The safe money is still on iTUNES, pay once and your done. Also then the Microsoft Beast will not be monthly scanning your hard disk to check on the legality of your music.

Isn't this the same thing that was going to kill iTMS six months ago?

I just wish there was SOME kind of limit as to how many times MS can trott out a 'our Product X, which ships in 3 months, will totally wipe out Product Y, which is currently shipping'.

I'll bet, 3 months from now, this same story will be published again.

How many tunes do you buy from iTunes every month?

Clearly some people buy a lot. I, for one, vary.

I go for several months without a purchase then get a bug in my ear and look for it.

My point is that a subscription service won't work if it costs more thanthe average amount that the average user spends downloading. Sure, there is probably a normal curve representing user behavior. That curve also defines the limit of the subscription market.

Also, I don't see Subscriptions doing gift purchases very well.

A weakness of the Subscription model is that the prime market for music - younger customers - are less likely to have steady jobs necessary to support a subscription.

They are more likely to see the monthly music bill as an annoyance when they haven't gotten any new music lately.

<<<<
I honestly believe that Microshaft intends to disable the ability of future PCs to record Janus protected songs in future versions of Windows.
<<<<

That wouldn't be possible.

Remember DIVX? Not the current video format, but an idiotic scheme through mostly Circuit City stores whereby you didn't buy DVDs, but essentially bought rentals that only worked if your DVD player was hooked up to a phone line?

I and others predicted its failure. These DVDs that go bad within 3 days of buying them will fail too.

The same thing goes with renting music from MS...it will never, never, never take off.

People want to OWN their tracks, OWN their music and BUILD a music collection.

There are only 3 business models that will work in online music downloads:

A la carte, A la carte, A la carte

If Janus succeeds it will be BECAUSE it is so easily hackable ... imagine, subscribe to a service, pay your $20 and end up with 10,000 songs you can use for ever because you've got something like audio hi-jack pro (or the windows equivalent) ... It's my guess that those pushing the subscription model know this, but are willing to be ripped off by consumers in the hope of grabbing market-share away from Apple and ultimately control of the music download market.

Janus is the future of Microsoft - it's the way Bill sees the world - he wants the keys to your computer and the information on it - Music is merely the beginning - in future when you want to access anything, you will need Bill's permission and an access key which you will pay for.

Funny how Apple is opening itself up to people, while Microsoft is attempting to shut the doors, bar the windows and usher in a world of Big Brother.

I guess knowledge is power.

Quote

Tiger wrote:
More likely, people will confuse Janus music interface with Janus Mutual Funds and stock brokers will be the ones getting rich, NOT Microsoft.

.

D'OH!!! You mean this whole time I've been buying mutual funds, not music??? No wonder iTunes keeps choking on that new "1040-EZ" song by IRS.

Even if MS is right, and the sole obstacle to more people using subscription services is that the music isn't portable (I am willing to accept that as one of the major downsides currently), it is not like it would be enormously challenging for Apple to follow suit, and quickly. The iPod has a clock, and I am sure with a little firmware update would be able to handle subscription files just fine. If anything, Apple's own data on average monthly spending by users would help them in determining what the sweet spot would be on the price. I would frankly be surprised, given Apple's less-thickheaded nature of late, if they allowed this to become a success without following suit.

That said, the thing about subscription based services that I never understood is that people sign up to save money over what it would cost to buy outright (I would assume). So inevitably, the company providing the service is giving away more songs for less money, theoretically. Just do the math. If a user is spending $10/month on a service and downloads enough to fill an iPod (10,000 songs), it would take 1,000 months (83 years) for the service provider to get back the same amount of money they would have received if the songs were bought outright. While I know this situation might be extreme, I do think it is likely that subscribers will always download considerably more than they would if they paid outright. It seems to be a model of trying to take less from each customer and making it up in bulk.

are the satellite radio companies. They're the ones that have a stake in people paying a subscription to hear all that music. If I was paying $10/mo for sirius, and it was only another $5 to get a napster subscription and basically make my own radio stations, I'd probably do it.