Merrill's Milunovich: Are Apple & Sony Working on New Products Together?
TMO Reports - Merrill's Milunovich: Are Apple & Sony Working on New Products Together?
by , 7:00 AM EST, February 15th, 2005
Apple Computer and Sony could be working together on a number of new products ranging from computers to music devices, Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Milunovich said Tuesday.
The Wall Street analyst told clients in a commentary found it "intriguing" that Sony President Kunitake Ando was on stage with Apple CEO Steve Jobs at Mac Expo-San Francisco in January.
"Why did Steve Jobs say that Apple and Sony could possibly work together on computers and music? We think Apple could introduce products based on the IBM/Sony/Toshiba Cell processor," Mr. Milunovich wrote.
Cautioning that his thoughts were "logical conjecture and are not based on knowledge of Apple's development plans," Mr. Milunovich speculated a Sony/Apple partnership could mean a number of different things, ranging from high-end workstations to online services.
"We speculate that an Apple/Sony partnership could take the following forms: (1) an iTunes-like iMovies Store online using the H.264 codec and streaming Sony and Pixar content, (2) a high-performance Apple workstation using Cell for video editing, and (3) a network-centric TV with computing for handling the next-generation of entertainment feeds."
The broker speculated an Apple/Sony partnership could put Apple "at the heart of the HD and digital consumer revolution and provide grist for further earnings per share increase and stock appreciation."
Mr. Milunovich reiterated his "buy" rating on Apple stock (AAPL) "with a new price objective of $102 per share." On January 28, Mr. Milunovich set a $85 price target.
Observer Comments
Well, we have all been speculating on possibilities like this for weeks now. Just because an analyst does it makes it news I guess.
I do think he is correct in that Steve is somehow gonna change the rules of the game again. What was that quote again? "Innovate. It's what we do." or something like that. This is a very fun time to be a MacHead.
Interesting ideas. The possibilities between Apple and Sony are almost endless.
* Sony's music store and players vs. the iPod/iTunes. Will there eventually be a sharing/supporting of formats?
* Final Cut Pro and Sony video. Apple and Panasonic went to a lot of trouble to get DVCPROHD on firewire. Could they be working with Sony on something similar? HDV is a given, I'm talking about things like Digibeta, which can only be edited natively on Sony programs right now. Might we eventually see codecs for someting like that on Apple computers?
* The whole cell-processor thing which I barely understand myself. Who knows where that will lead.
* The Sony movie library and the fact that iTunes will likely sell downloadable movies someday.
And that's just what I can think of off the top of my head. I'm sure there are many others. I doubt that all of these will come about, but even one or two could be exciting. The real question is, can they play nice in one area (like, movie downloads) while still competing in a another area (like music players)? Maybe, maybe not.
Tue Feb 15, 2005 10:44 am Subject: Apple/Pixar + Sony/Columbia Pictures + IBM/CELL + PS
Do the math!!!
Apple/Pixar = Steve Jobs, computer, movies and Music
Sony/Columbia Pictures = Computer, movies and Music
IBM/CELL= APPLE/SONY
Wow, everything ends at the same point where it started...
Apple has the better easier, faster growing business and sony has the experience in video and movies, apple is pointing to videos and movies in the living room and sony is stranded, so is LOGICAL, that apple teaches sony son techniques about implementing things in the living room, so, if you remember steve jobs telling that PC companies want OS X, so sony has to be one of them.
I think apple/sony/ibm are trying to create the next big thing in the living room, apple has the brand and sony has all the assets possible to accomplish this task, joining force is IBM, with resources and money to invest in those areas.
'just' because an analyst says it _does_ make it news. Analysts are paid because of the reputation they build for correctly predicting trends in companies and industries. Steven Milunovich is an analyst with Merrill Lynch and has covered Apple for years. He would be making a serious career blunder if he, speaking for one of the world's largest investment firms, made a wild and inacurate 'guess'.
At this point, I would wager that at worst, we will see in the months to come that Sony and Apple had a deal in the works fall through (like with Sirrus Radio in the iPod) and at best, we will see the G6 sporting a Cell processor.
With IBM and Sony in on developing the Cell, and Apple having business relationships with both companies, it is plausible. From reading Slashdot.org and other sources on the Cell, Intel and AMD will have to scurry to meet the new challenge of this processor.
When Billy boy tries to desparately bulldoze the party with verbage as to how great it would be if MS and Sony cooperated in media one has to think that something is in the works here- and it sure shows it ain't plans with Bill at present. Its no cert it is predominantly with Apple but (and the timing was interesting) the sense of such mutual cooperation is unarguable for both parties- if the egos can be smoothed. Initially I suspect that video (music too even maybe if Sony has truly recognised its mistake in spurning the offer here) is the focus but as the cell is integral to Sony's effects in this arena who knows where it may lead. Time will tell.
Ironically when referencing the concept of professional to consumer use of high end media capabilities it is arguable that Sony has a big technical media professional presence while Apple has the more highly marketable and more prosumer orientated technical presence/awareness in this area. So transfering it all to the consumer market place could be the ideal ground for them both to forge an alliance. Together they would undoubtedly carry the bulk of the consumer electronics industry with them and very possibly not only thwart the 'PC into consumer electronics' arena that MS so craves and Sony so fears, but actually reverse the movement with all sorts of consumer devices taking on inteligence and computer capabilities and in so doing make the pc itself a relatively unprofitable and declining specialist entity. As MS knows (even if the likes od Dell may not) that bodes even worse for the pc industry profitability and even MS's bloated profits will suffer and its vulnerabilities will be only too clear to see. If MS ever loses the aura of invincibility that so dominates its sales it may tumble faster than anyone can imagine.
Spy
I love when these freakin analysts take one little thing like "Sony President Kunitake Ando was on stage with Apple CEO Steve Jobs at Mac Expo" and use that one and only one thing to fabricate this big conspiracy and then use that "conspiracy" as a front for an excuse to just name some products that they think would be cool for Apple to make. Wow neat-o!
Personally I think we need to look towards entertainment more than specific computing. think about it.
'3 pc companies interested in using OS X'. Sony, Toshiba, IBM are of course computer companies but for various reasons sre not pc specific which I think is the real pointer. IBM has moved out of the cut throat pc business so does it see media/entertainment/streaming as the future? Does it want to maximise resourses to take advantage? The other 2 are of course predominantly consumer/media businesses and have no serious chances of being seriously big time pc producers nor I suspect want to be any longer. They were covering their asses in so getting to here and both probably see pc sales as, or potentially a liability in the future.
All, however have the cell processor up their sleeves and the combing element in their futures so where does that lead us. All 3 see the cell as a new opportunity and also at the heart of their consumer/professional product outlook. Consumer products and media is the combining entity for all of them with professional media products backing it all up. This is the area that will be computing and computers in the future. Win this and eventually you win the computing war no matter who seems in control now. Claims about who rules the roost when we are in but the stone age of computing is simply plain stupid, yet persistent from the mouths of those who see no further than their (grubby) finger nails as it was in previous generations with previous technology. One would think they might learn.
So where does Apple come into this story. Everything that SJ has done in recent years has headed in that direction- either media at the consumer end or delivery sytems and software at the professianl end. Coincidence? I think not. What the triumerate of Sony, IBM, Toshiba need to fulfill their dream is an operating system and a sales pitch to empower them in the new world round the corner. They can go to Microsoft of course. However if they do they will be but lackies to the MS monolith. Having experienced that already and far worse to come (especially for Tosh and Sony) is that really what they want for this great adventure? Equally this is the MS who trampled on Sony's terrortory in game boxes and who stiched up IBM all those years ago. Both will have grudges as well as fears.
Now if you make the operating system on your consumer devices compatible (as far as it needs to be anyway) and you dominate the consumer arena you can pretty much go for the operating system of choice and preferably an intuitive, stable, clever and simple to use one rather than any imbedded system that has little or no sway in this particular arena (yet). Of course this arena will equally become ultimately the biggest computing arena around in the future, over and above the business arena which is so commited to Windows. What further possibilities does that offer in itself for all involved?
So all is set up here although I accept as yet its simply logic and conjecture rather than certainty but of course the 'experts' are beginning to put the pieces together too. Ironically Apples recent over the top actions against rumour sites may be yet another piece to this jigsaw. If Apple is inherently part of this future it does not want it to be known as yet and certainly not until it decides the time is right- this is going to be a long term campaign and the initial strikes need to be incisive and well aimed and the impact instant to gain the greatest effect in terms of marketing and presentation. Before a battle all attempts are made to disguise and blunt the oppositions sensors whatever form they take. One also builds up one's own resources - so again is the appointment of a new and highly rated vice president of marketing significant?
All is adding up but so much could go off the rails if too much seeps out and 3rd parties (we know who you are) try to unravel complex and delicate agreeements not only amongst the central players but many others who will be required to ally if this is all to work. I suspect we will know a good deal more when Tiger and a certain new video codec are launched together though but that will be but the start I suspect of a raking up of the momentum of the whole process.
Spy
Tue Feb 15, 2005 1:31 pm Subject: Re: Apple/Pixar + Sony/Columbia Pictures + IBM/CELL + PS
QuoteAgree.Anonymous wrote:
Do the math!!!
Apple/Pixar = Steve Jobs, computer, movies and Music
Sony/Columbia Pictures = Computer, movies and Music
IBM/CELL= APPLE/SONY
Wow, everything ends at the same point where it started...
Apple has the better easier, faster growing business and sony has the experience in video and movies, apple is pointing to videos and movies in the living room and sony is stranded, so is LOGICAL, that apple teaches sony son techniques about implementing things in the living room, so, if you remember steve jobs telling that PC companies want OS X, so sony has to be one of them.
I think apple/sony/ibm are trying to create the next big thing in the living room, apple has the brand and sony has all the assets possible to accomplish this task, joining force is IBM, with resources and money to invest in those areas.
QuoteVery good point, spy.Anonymous wrote:
When Billy boy tries to desparately bulldoze the party with verbage as to how great it would be if MS and Sony cooperated in media one has to think that something is in the works here- and it sure shows it ain't plans with Bill at present. Its no cert it is predominantly with Apple but (and the timing was interesting) the sense of such mutual cooperation is unarguable for both parties- if the egos can be smoothed. Initially I suspect that video (music too even maybe if Sony has truly recognised its mistake in spurning the offer here) is the focus but as the cell is integral to Sony's effects in this arena who knows where it may lead. Time will tell.
Ironically when referencing the concept of professional to consumer use of high end media capabilities it is arguable that Sony has a big technical media professional presence while Apple has the more highly marketable and more prosumer orientated technical presence/awareness in this area. So transfering it all to the consumer market place could be the ideal ground for them both to forge an alliance. Together they would undoubtedly carry the bulk of the consumer electronics industry with them and very possibly not only thwart the 'PC into consumer electronics' arena that MS so craves and Sony so fears, but actually reverse the movement with all sorts of consumer devices taking on inteligence and computer capabilities and in so doing make the pc itself a relatively unprofitable and declining specialist entity. As MS knows (even if the likes od Dell may not) that bodes even worse for the pc industry profitability and even MS's bloated profits will suffer and its vulnerabilities will be only too clear to see. If MS ever loses the aura of invincibility that so dominates its sales it may tumble faster than anyone can imagine.
Spy
Apple's primary enemy in computers, music players, and eventually PC-in-home-entertainment is Microsoft. Apple's strength is great end-user software and product design. It has brand presence, especially online (iTMS). Then toss in Quicktime 7, Firewire, and networking.
Sony's primary enemy in game consoles is Microsoft. Sony owns movie and music content. It has good product design. It has brand presence, especially in the living room, and worldwide distribution. Then toss in the Cell processor.
Combine those together in an alliance against the primary enemy, and it makes for incredibly interesting possibilities.
QuoteBiff wrote:
I love when these freakin analysts take one little thing like "Sony President Kunitake Ando was on stage with Apple CEO Steve Jobs at Mac Expo" and use that one and only one thing to fabricate this big conspiracy and then use that "conspiracy" as a front for an excuse to just name some products that they think would be cool for Apple to make. Wow neat-o!
So your theory is that the guy flew in from Japan to hang out with Steve for...no real reason?
At the show, Ando said that they'd be working with Apple in the future, didn't he? I wouldn't call it a "consipiracy" to think that he actually meant something by that.
When Apple introduced the whole Bluetooth shebang, along with the SonyEricsson phone, they also had the President of Sony (not SonyEricsson) on stage... woefully little came of that, and the EXACT same banted happened then ("Oh, watch how Apple will work with SONY!").
The only differences I see this time:
- The SONY guy mentioned that Steve invited him to the keynote while he was having dinner with Steve - what else could they have been talking about?
- Steve had to cut him off, as he seemed to be getting ahead of himself in terms of where they are headed with Apple.
- Steve hinted (which he VERY rarely does) at Music and Computer cooperation with SONY.
What *would* be a realistic course of events:
- Apple licensing the iPod design to SONY, and SONY selling the iPod in Japan, and also manufacturing it, in return for SONY eliminating the CONNECT store, and instead getting a SONY branded iTMS. This would be a win-win situation for both sides. It's also a realistic outcome.
While Apple has along history of working with Sony (including SONY building the first PowerBook), I do not see more than the above, on the high-end, happening. Something like what they did with hp would be a good development, as long as Apple doesn't scrrew it up like they did with hp.
ZinkDifferent
QuoteI'm sorry if I was unclear. My complaint is about the way a story like this comes together:Small White Car wrote:
So your theory is that the guy flew in from Japan to hang out with Steve for...no real reason?
At the show, Ando said that they'd be working with Apple in the future, didn't he? I wouldn't call it a "consipiracy" to think that he actually meant something by that.
1. Sony President at MacWorld SF.
2. Analyst says wow it would be neat-o to me if Sony and Apple did this and this and released product that.
3. Analyst decides he wants to tell everyone about his cool neat-o ideas.
4. Analyst takes his only concrete thing (item 1), throws in a little unrelated info and represents his ideas as things that may very well come to pass!
5. Other people read what he wrote and begin to believe his cool neat-o products are real.
5. People complain when said things don't materialize.
QuoteBiff wrote:
5. Other people read what he wrote and begin to believe his cool neat-o products are real.
5. People complain when said things don't materialize.
As far as I'm concerned, THESE two are the only actual problems. So let's make fun of these people instead.
Goodness knows that I do when they all start complaining after MacWorld.
You are correct that the first part leads to the second part, but I prefer a more direct attack of the problem.
Milunovich actually has a pretty good track record, so when he offers this up, I'd believe he has some more info that he's just not willing to put into print.
You see, if Think Secret had taken their insider accounts and come out with words similar to Milunovich, then Apple would not have sued over trade secrets. So it's possible Milunovich has other info.
By the way, the Fortune issue that had the article with Jobs, also had an article on Sony's future music plans. The Sony honcho, Wiser, said that interoperability among all of their own devices and with devices from other companies is important but that Apple doesn't license Fairplay. Later, it adds that Sony hasn't decided what to do, but that they've ruled out killing Connect (their music store). Is this just misinformation until the time is right?
The next big Sony product is PlayStation 3, which will lag behind the next Xbox in getting to market. It will have the Cell as a marketing feature, but wouldn't the ability to run the iTunes jukebox software, access iTMS, and sync with iPods be an even better marketing feature? "Music and computers", anyone?
Tue Feb 15, 2005 9:25 pm Subject: Re: OS X on PlayStation 3
Tue Feb 15, 2005 10:25 pm Subject: Re: OS X on PlayStation 3
I doubt Sony would buy Apple. First off, Apple has become a lot more expensive to buy lately, with their market capitalizion pretty much quadrupling in the past year or so.
Second, and more importantly, Apple is perceived as BEING Steve Jobs to a large extent. He is by far their best salesman, and he is their visionary who makes the great product choices. And Steve doesn't like taking orders from anybody.
If Sony bought Apple out in a hostile takoever of some kind Steve-o would very likely leave. And that right there would suddenly make Apple a hugely devalued asset. Think of what would happen to Apple's stock price NOW if Steve left, and you see what I mean. Not to mention that if Steve started a new company, he'd likely pull most of his brain trust with him, i.e. the top 10 or 20 most valuable guys who make Apple what it is.
I could see Apple and Sony cooperating on a range of products, but Sony outright buying Apple? Nah.
Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:42 am Subject: Re: Sony/Apple? Doubt it
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