Is Mr. Wolf suggesting 11% of Windows users would switch to the Mac? Over what period of time? That would be phenomenal, but is hard to believe (that would increate the Mac market share to around 13%).

Or is he suggesting that 11% of iPod buyers will also buy a Mac? Some more context from the analyst's report would be helpful.

It says pretty clearly in the article that they're talkin' an "11% switch rate of WINDOWS users" so I don't think they're talking about iPods, except through the halo effect.

11% isn't that hard to believe either... many Windows users are getting pretty fed up with the lack of security in Windows, all the spyware, malware, and viruses. Plus you get to babysit your computer all the time, exactly the opposite of what mainstream, non-techie users want to do.

Of course, while they wanted a secure, low-maintenance computer, they didn't want to pay and arm and a leg for it, either. Mainstream users also tend to be lower-end users, except for the yuppie brigade amongst them. They could give a rat's patootie whether they have a 160GB hard drive or a 60. So for them, the Mac Mini is what FINALLY made them take a close look at Apple- now you've got security, low-maintenance, AND affordability.

What blows my mind is why Stevie J didn't do this sooner.

Apple is indeed a good buy, but beware all these analysts and investment houses that are jumping on the bandwagon this late. What they want to do is take Joe Average for a ride, just like they did during the dot-com/bomb days.

My guess is that somewhere around $100 the big boys will all dump their stock at the same time like they always do and profit-take, and Mr. Small Potatoes will panic sell on the way down. The price will dive quite a bit, and then the big boys will buy it all back up again. Its what they do, and it makes them a LOT of money.

So a note to all the little guys out there- either get in NOW and sell ahead of sharks, or get in NOW and hold no matter what... I think we're in for a rollercoaster pretty soon.

As far as I know, it is 11% of Windowy iPod owners.
What analysts miss, is that "halo" affect takes time to arrive - excited iPoders do not run next day to buy Mac. It takes 1-2 years to before people buy a new computer. I think that we will see "halo" effect gaining strength this year - "back to school" and then Christmas. Once people realize "halo" is here, AAPL will shoot up beyond even bulliest expectations, and perhaps, beyond true valuations.

I have been thinking when would it be a good time to sell my Apple stock, I have already doubled my investment if I sell now. However, there is a lot of buzz in the media about Apple, more of Windows are friends are realizing that the grass is greener across the fence and Longhorn is as far away as world peace. Apple may be poised to be the next come back kid, if I hold out longer my stock may worth much more than double.

Note to Reality Check, you opinions have no credibilty with me so I will ignore your comments about when to sell my Apple stock.

Quote

Guest wrote:
Apple is indeed a good buy, but beware all these analysts and investment houses that are jumping on the bandwagon this late. What they want to do is take Joe Average for a ride, just like they did during the dot-com/bomb days.

My guess is that somewhere around $100 the big boys will all dump their stock at the same time like they always do and profit-take, and Mr. Small Potatoes will panic sell on the way down. The price will dive quite a bit, and then the big boys will buy it all back up again. Its what they do, and it makes them a LOT of money.

So a note to all the little guys out there- either get in NOW and sell ahead of sharks, or get in NOW and hold no matter what... I think we're in for a rollercoaster pretty soon.

Quote

Guest wrote:
It says pretty clearly in the article that they're talkin' an "11% switch rate of WINDOWS users" so I don't think they're talking about iPods, except through the halo effect.

Quote

Guest wrote:

11% isn't that hard to believe either... many Windows users are getting pretty fed up with the lack of security in Windows, all the spyware, malware, and viruses. Plus you get to babysit your computer all the time, exactly the opposite of what mainstream, non-techie users want to do.

Quote

Guest wrote:
So a note to all the little guys out there- either get in NOW and sell ahead of sharks, or get in NOW and hold no matter what... I think we're in for a rollercoaster pretty soon.

I'm thinking maybe he means "11% of new iPod-buying Windows users (over the span of a quarter/year/whatever)". Rate is change over a period of time; Windows users who already own iPods would be considered static, and therefore would not factor in.

"11% of all Windows users" is a changing amount, but not a rate of change. "11% of all Windows users (per quarter/year/whatever)" is a ridiculously huge rate, one which implies there will be almost no Windows users within 9 years, and this guy was attempting to be conservative with his estimate.

If that's not what he means, he's either picking numbers out of his ass, or he doesn't know what the word "rate" means.

which is about to happen: the price of a share of Apple is about to be cut in half. Probably that means more people will buy shares, to dip their toes in, and that will tend to accelarate the growth of the stock. For the people who already own the stock and are about to get 2x shares, any further growth may be somewhat exponential. Imagine if the stock is cut to $44 now, and over the next couple years creeps back up to $88 - that is EXPLOSIVE growth. If I had the scratch, I would be betting on Steve with my wallet.

AyaSofya - I wouldn't be so primed to lock in your earnings yet.

While it is temping to take your doubled earnings and run, there are a few things you must remember as well.
(1) Capital Gains Tax will be levied on the difference between the price you sell for and the price you paid, so your earning won't be _as_ significant after Uncle Sam takes a third. This is assuming you are not investing in a tax sheltered account like a Roth IRA which does not tax on capital gains.
(2) Short term investments are taxed even higher. If you have only had the stock a few months, there will be additional short term gains taxes levied.
(3) 1 and 2 aside, as they apply to any stock, AAPL is clearly on the express elevator and I would not be so quick to jump off. Apple has gotten to this position with strong fundamentals - no debt, $4 _billion_ in cash, and a dominance of two markets (players and content).
(4) Last quarters sales results indicated 92.1% of all Hard drive players sold were iPods - and that is only the HD market - the iPod Shuffle hadn't been released. Apple may one day be unseated from the throne, but that day is not today so enjoy the ride.

Disclaimer - I am not a tax advisor or investment advisor and I have seen my small investment in Apple increase 390% over three years. It was tempting to sell but I certainly am glad I did not and I am not about to alter my position (unless I buy more) without significant changes to the market and company.

I apologize for the misunderstanding of Mr. Wolf's comments on the 11% switch rate of Windows users. Let me clarify...

Mr. Wolf meant that he expects 11% of Windows users WHO OWN AN iPOD to switch to a Mac.

That was not well explained in the story because of an error in his actual report. This issue has been clarified directly with Mr. Wolf and has been corrected in the story.

Brad Gibson

Is Apple a $42 BILLION company at $104 per share? I wish Apple prospers but fundamentals do not support such a lofty valuation. The US dollar and AAPL stock price are heading in the same direction.

Quote

jimothy wrote:
Is Mr. Wolf suggesting 11% of Windows users would switch to the Mac? Over what period of time? That would be phenomenal, but is hard to believe (that would increate the Mac market share to around 13%).

Or is he suggesting that 11% of iPod buyers will also buy a Mac? Some more context from the analyst's report would be helpful.

Quote

Anonymous wrote:
Apple is indeed a good buy, but beware all these analysts and investment houses that are jumping on the bandwagon this late. What they want to do is take Joe Average for a ride, just like they did during the dot-com/bomb days.

My guess is that somewhere around $100 the big boys will all dump their stock at the same time like they always do and profit-take, and Mr. Small Potatoes will panic sell on the way down. The price will dive quite a bit, and then the big boys will buy it all back up again. Its what they do, and it makes them a LOT of money.

So a note to all the little guys out there- either get in NOW and sell ahead of sharks, or get in NOW and hold no matter what... I think we're in for a rollercoaster pretty soon.

Thanks for the clarification, Brad. This would still represent an increase in market share by about one percentage point. Not nearly as impressive as 10, but more realistic and still a tremendous upside for Apple.

Regarding the comment (by another poster) about capital gains: The capital gains rate is now 15% or lower, so you won't lose one third of your gains, provided you held the stock for at least one year. And avoiding capital gains is NEVER a good reason to hold on to a stock if you feel its value has peaked. I'd rather pay cap gains on a $10,000 profit than see the stock price fall pay cap gains on a $5,000 profit (or take a cap loss on a $5,000 loss!), even though I pay twice the taxes in the first scenario.

Quote

enature wrote:
... AAPL will shoot up beyond even bulliest expectations, and perhaps, beyond true valuations.

Quote

jimothy wrote:
... The capital gains rate is now 15% or lower, so you won't lose one third of your gains, provided you held the stock for at least one year...

"Mr. Wolf is predicting that 11% of Windows users owning iPods will buy a Mac,"

The above sentence from the article does not say that 11% of Window users will switch. It says that 11% of Window users who own iPods will switch. A very big difference.

I think now that Apple seems to be on much better footing, and will not go out of business anytime soon, folks will be more comfortable buying a Mac. In 1997 the company was in very poor shape and everyone knew it was going out of business. This is when market share tumbled. I feel that the switchers will increase due to the crap the windows world must put up with. Monopolies are often their own worst enemies and crumble from within. Also, Apple has become very price competitive since Steve has returned, To top it off, OSX has finally matured and is the leading OS once again. The computer world is once again trying to catch up with Apple in music and in computers.

Quote

Diveanddig wrote:
"Mr. Wolf is predicting that 11% of Windows users owning iPods will buy a Mac,"

The above sentence from the article does not say that 11% of Window users will switch. It says that 11% of Window users who own iPods will switch. A very big difference.

Quote

Guest wrote:
So a note to all the little guys out there- either get in NOW and sell ahead of sharks, or get in NOW and hold no matter what... I think we're in for a rollercoaster pretty soon.

Quote

Guest wrote:
which is about to happen: the price of a share of Apple is about to be cut in half. Probably that means more people will buy shares, to dip their toes in, and that will tend to accelarate the growth of the stock. For the people who already own the stock and are about to get 2x shares, any further growth may be somewhat exponential. Imagine if the stock is cut to $44 now, and over the next couple years creeps back up to $88 - that is EXPLOSIVE growth. If I had the scratch, I would be betting on Steve with my wallet.

How's this for an Apple "one-two punch." Apple makes the hardware and the software so they have twice as much to mess up. First the software goes, then the hardware.

Then it's lucky that Apple's speciality is excelling at hardware and software design, isn't it? After all, their competence at hardware and software design is the reason for their newfound dominance of two entire markets. Large ones, at that.

So while Apple has the potential to mess up software and hardware, it's nice that they don't do it as often and on such a massive scale as Microsoft always has.

Quote

Anonymous wrote:
Then it's lucky that Apple's speciality is excelling at hardware and software design, isn't it? After all, their competence at hardware and software design is the reason for their newfound dominance of two entire markets. Large ones, at that.

So while Apple has the potential to mess up software and hardware, it's nice that they don't do it as often and on such a massive scale as Microsoft always has.

I think the poster is referring to the digital music player market and the online music store market.

Quote

ben sanders wrote:

Quote

Anonymous wrote:
Then it's lucky that Apple's speciality is excelling at hardware and software design, isn't it? After all, their competence at hardware and software design is the reason for their newfound dominance of two entire markets. Large ones, at that.

Ummm, what markets are you referring to? I hope you aren't referring to the computer market, given their measly market share.

And Apple can't handle markets on the scale that Microsoft can.

Seems to me if you have already doubled your money on paper the correct strategy would be to sell a little over 1/2 your stock and play with house money. There is a saying that commodity traders have, " Bulls and Bears make money Pigs get slaughtered".

Quote

Anonymous wrote:
... the correct strategy would be to sell a little over 1/2 your stock and play with house money ...

"I think the poster is referring to the digital music player market and the online music store market. "

Yeah, I was. I guess maybe he doesn't consider them large markets.

House money, gambling terminology, if a buyer of apple stock bought 1000 shares at $25/share and sold 500 shares at say $55/share that sale would cover the stock owners initial investment (not including cap gains). The balance of the stock still owned is referred to as house money because it was never part of the stock owners original investment. This technique is used to put a hard limit on losses. If the stock tanks to zero (theoritically) the stock holder has locked in a small profit on his or her original investment. If it goes the other way everything is just gravy.

Mac idiots.