Apple Admits USB Dominance Too Big to Ignore; Experts See it as Right Move
TMO Reports - Apple Admits USB Dominance Too Big to Ignore; Experts See it as Right Move
by , 9:10 AM EST, February 25th, 2005
Universal Serial Bus (USB) 2.0 is the king of connectivity and Apple Computer acknowledged that fact Wednesday by no longer including a FireWire cable with its new line of iPod digital media devices. Most industry experts agree Apple's decision was the right one in a marketplace where USB is standard equipment on every PC sold today.
In announcing new models of the iPod color and a second-generation iPod mini, Apple dropped the FireWire cable as standard equipment. Although iPod users can still use Firewire to transfer data and charge their devices, consumers must now pay an additional US$19 for the cable.
The move is part of Apple's gradual shift to use USB 2.0 as the defacto standard on the iPod, which is far more common in the Windows world.
"I think it was a prudent decision, as well as a cost effective one," Mark Margevicius, research director at the technology analysis firm Gartner, Inc., told The Mac Observer.
"USB allows for so much more diversity," Mr. Margevicius said. "It was a common sense decision for Apple, much like making iTunes available for Windows. You can't overlook what the marketplace is using.
"In the PC market in 2004, high-speed USB has nearly saturated the desktop market, and now comprises over three-quarters of the notebook market."
Mr. Margevicius also believes another factor in favor of USB 2.0 is its ability to now recharge via a USB connection -- something that wasn't available on iPods and PCs until just the past two years.
When comparing FireWire and USB 2.0, the speed at which data transfers is roughly the same. USB 2.0 has a theoretical top speed of 480 megabits per second while FireWire 400, or IEEE 1394, tops out at 400 Mbps. A faster version of FireWire, known as IEEE 1394.b or FireWire 800, is roughly twice the speed of FireWire and USB 2.0. It is currently offered on Apple's Power Mac G5 models and offered on a selected few Windows-based PCs.
But that is where the similarities end.
USB 2.0 is standard fare on the majority of Windows-based personal computers available today. Mr. Margevicius said market penetration of USB 2.0 is "virtually 100%" of all personal computers sold today and either it or USB version 1.0 has been in Windows-based PCs since 2000. USB 2.0 has been standard on iMacs since September of 2003. When the iPod debuted in 2001, it used only FireWire. When Apple released Windows-ready iPods, USB was not supported. It wasn't until April 2003 that Apple first offered iPods with USB 2.0 for an additional $19.
As for FireWire, it is often an option on Windows-ready PCs and its adoption on third-party hard drives and other peripherals has not been as profound as USB 2.0, which is found on everything from digital cameras to flash drives. While FireWire 400 is prevalent, Mr. Margevicius figures it is only available on about 25% of PCs sold today.
Another factor, according to Mr. Margevicius is adoption of USB 2.0 by third-party peripheral makers. According to the latest In-Stat forecast, the number of USB-enabled devices will rise from 705.7 million in 2004 to 2.1 billion in 2009 -- everything from hard drives and printers, to coffee cup warmers and adjustable reading lights.
"The more USB-ready devices that are out there just solidifies its acceptance and use," Mr. Margevicius said.
Another possible future factor: The growth potential of Wireless USB 1.0. Mr. Mergevicius predicts Wireless USB will make its debut in the PC market late in 2005 in the form of dongles that hook into USB ports.
"Wireless USB is a technology every PC product maker is looking at for the future," he said. "I'm sure Apple is too."
Pricing a factor in Apple's decision
Although the analysts TMO talked to agree the most popular connection standard won out fair and square, all agreed the issue of saving money had to have been a major factor Apple considered when deciding to cut its Firewire shackles.
"USB is cheaper to install for a manufacturer," said Brian O’Rourke, an analyst with In-Stat who has done extensive research on USB adoption. "It can often be installed at a much cheaper price because many of the components and processors USB works with are already configured to work with it."
Mr. O’Rourke's prime example: The fact that USB 2.0 is integrated into the core logic chipset -- known as SouthBridge -- of all Intel and AMD processors used in Windows-based personal computers. "That makes building in USB 2.0 much easier and cheaper for PC makers," he said.
So how much is Apple saving? According to one analyst who watches component pricing for a living, the savings is a little less than $1.
"I'd say Apple is saving about a dollar by dropping the Firewire cable," IdaRose Sylvester, an analyst with the research firm IDC, told TMO. "While that doesn't sound like a lot of money, it adds up to millions over time."
Firewire lovers fight back
No matter what the reasons, some Mac owners are upset with Apple's decision.
Gary Reich of Annapolis, Md. was so upset, he started an online petition saying "users and supporter" of Apple products are "dismayed" about the Apple decision.
"It is very unfortunate that you have left your faithful out in the dark on this one," Mr. Reich writes on the petition site. "it seems wholly irrational to remove it from the people who provide the support, promotion and word of mouth 'advertising' that provides your company with the millions of 'switchers' you want each year, free of charge."
As of Friday morning, more than 2,800 people had signed the online petition calling on Apple to again include a FireWire cable with iPods.
But despite the concerns of many, fearful that Apple might be ringing the death knell of FireWire, fear not.
"Apple is not going to get rid of Firewire," said Jupiter Research analyst Joe Wilcox. "While USB acceptance was an important factor, Apple has made a cost decision here. It was simply the more prudent strategy. But Firewire is not dead."
Observer Comments
QuoteGuest wrote:
Apple doomed it when FW800 required a different connector. It won't last that much longer as an audio or DV port. Audio is already moving to USB2. If USB can get up to the sustained throughput, not just burst speeds, of Firewire for DV streaming, that's all it will take to kiss it good-bye no matter how fast FW gets. That's the only thing keeping FW alive now.
Well, sure, IF USB could do that, then Firewire's survival might be threatened. (Though I'd remove the cavaet, "no matter how fast FW gets." Firewire's increased bandwidth will always appeal to certain industries, such as HDTV production).
As far as audio, I believe USB has only pushed Firewire aside for consumer audio, such as Dolby 5.1 adapters (sound card alternatives, popular for laptops), but not for pro-audio. Then again, I'm a software developer, not an audio guy, so I could be mistaken.
Fri Feb 25, 2005 4:44 pm Subject: Only slightly better off than we were b4
The iPod mini I bought in November (which included the Firewire cable and AC Adapter) cost $249.
To get the same functionality with an iPod mini I buy TODAY for $199, I need to spend $19 and $29 for the now-optional FW and AC (total: $247). So, not only will I save $2 vs the previous model, I now get an iPod with increased battery life and a slightly different (trendier?) color. Not a bad improvement for 2 bucks.
While I agree with Apple's decision purely on a business level (cutting the price, and catering to the (PC) majority's port preference), it DOES come off as a slap in the face of the loyal Mac faithful. And cutting the price gets lots more good press than just saying "hey, we've increased the battery life!"
OMG, 19 bucks??!!! Me? I'll get over it...somehow. 
"It ain't personal...it's just business."
-Ken P
Fri Feb 25, 2005 4:44 pm Subject: Re: Firewire is dead-end technology
QuoteAnonymous wrote:
If USB can get up to the sustained throughput, not just burst speeds, of Firewire for DV streaming, that's all it will take to kiss it good-bye no matter how fast FW gets. That's the only thing keeping FW alive now.
Joe Futral
Right...I don't think you'll be seeing DVCPROHD over USB 2 any time soon.
HD on firewire 400 is alive and well, however:
http://www.apple.com/finalcutpro/codecs.html
Quote
But despite the concerns of many, fearful that Apple might be ringing the death knell of FireWire, fear not.
"Apple is not going to get rid of Firewire," said Jupiter Research analyst Joe Wilcox. "While USB acceptance was an important factor, Apple has made a cost decision here. It was simply the more prudent strategy. But Firewire is not dead."
It seems like TMO has been doing this kind of quote alot just in the past several weeks. When did third party analysts become an authoritative source of information? Two months ago all they did was sell sound bytes in an effort to sound like they knew what the were talking about.
Quotejimothy wrote:
As far as audio, I believe USB has only pushed Firewire aside for consumer audio, such as Dolby 5.1 adapters (sound card alternatives, popular for laptops), but not for pro-audio. Then again, I'm a software developer, not an audio guy, so I could be mistaken.
Firewire is VERY alive and well in pro-audio circles, so yes, I agree that a Firewire Death Knell is waaaay off-base. We thought MIDI wouldn't last this long either!
-Ken P
-Ken
Quotewhy should PCs ditch the PS/2 ports? what kind of amazing transfer speeds do mice and keyboards need? the only advantage to USB keyboards and mice is being able to plug the mouse into the keyboard, or using the keyboard as a USB hub. many people use USB keyboards anyway, and it's nice that PCs at least give you some legacy ports.
PS/2 would be a perfect addition to the mac mini.
I can think of a couple of very good reasons to stay right the hell away from PS/2 keyboard and mouse connectors.
1) Two holes, exactly the same, right next to each other, but not compatible. Exceedingly stupid. If there are two plugs, both serving as low-speed inputs for similar devices, why oh why can't they be interchangable?
2) PS/2 controller chips all seem to be broken, sometimes you can hot plug keyboard/mouse, but sometimes you have to reboot to get them recognised again. Linux is better at handling this than Windows, but still not perfect.
PS/2 is an awful, awful mess, and should be kept as far as possible from any device intended to be operated by a human being. It's no doubt caused more support calls than any other mistake short of installing Windows.
Well if I'm not mistaken Firewire, the term coined by Apple for IEEE1394, was also "progressed" into the mainstream by Apple. So they're bashing their own prodigy.
As far as a dead-end technology? The latest audio/video receivers are now using IEEE1394 - "Firewire" as a mode of connecting DVD's, CD's, Media Players, Monitors, etc. to the receiver. So . . . dead? I think not.
In a related article - I think here - they figured out that Apple is making a 40% profit on the iPod and by dumping the Firewire cable making more now. So say what you will, it's all about the bottom line, or year end bonuses, or making Apple enough money to buy TiVo.
The best argument I have read here so far is to ship the units without the cable and let the buyer choose. Or have a USB model and a FW model. But the duality of it might cost too much, so I wouldn't hold my breath on this option.
Sat Feb 26, 2005 9:37 am Subject: SOLUTION: They could include the FW cable at APPLE STORES...
Just a thought... since this is a PC-Mac divide issue (most PCs have USB 2, many Macs in use today do not), why not simply ship two different kinds of boxes?
The boxes going to the Circuit Citys, Best Buys, Comp USAs etc. could have the USB 2 cable, but no Firewire, since thats mostly a PC crowd shopping there. The boxes going to the Apple Stores could have both cables, since thats where the Mac folks shop.
This would have two benefits-
1) Apple would still see significant cost savings, since the majority of iPods are not sold at Apple Stores
2) It would drive traffic to Apple Stores, since the savvy would go there for the better deal. And while they're there, they might just pick up something else they need, offsetting the additional cost of the FW cable.
The only downside is that Best Buy etc. might be mildly miffed that the Apple Store box is a slightly better deal. But so long as the iPod is selling like hotcakes for them and making them tons of cash, I'm sure they'll find a way to live with it.
Quotealgr wrote:
I don't have a problem with Apple not including a Firewire cable, but charging $19 for a dollar cable is dishonest.
Bought any video cables from Radio Shack recently?
Nope, the only reason to shop at Radio Shlock is the fact that they're conveniently located almost everywhere.
QuoteAnonymous wrote:Quotealgr wrote:
I don't have a problem with Apple not including a Firewire cable, but charging $19 for a dollar cable is dishonest.
Bought any video cables from Radio Shack recently?
Nope, the only reason to shop at Radio Shlock is the fact that they're conveniently located almost everywhere.
Mac idiots.
"What makes you think that a customer base FAR less than than than Wintel PC's REALLY had the effect of keeping usb alive? I couldn't possibly been that USB was made a STANDARD for ALL pc's! But whatever, I won't change your mind, APPLE invented the universe ya know..."
Sigh. Poor PC users can't credit Apple for anything, even when it's obviously true and benefits THEM.
Back before Apple adoped USB, it was effectively going NOWHERE on the PC side of things. A spokesperson promoting USB made a comment that trying to get PC makers to adopt a new standard was like "herding cats". It took Apple's no-nonsense, total adoption of USB to show the way... eventually the PC makers followed their lead and now we've got USB everywhere.
What is so hard about this to grasp? Its simply history, no more, no less. What's next, you're going to tell us that Windows 1.0 was released before the Macintosh?
Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:07 pm Subject: Online Firewire Petition Approaching 4000 Signatures...
http://www.petitiononline.com/firewire/petition.html
Go on and tell Apple what you think.
ADB = "Apple Desktop Bus" - it's the same as the older connector used by PCs... DB-9 or something, but it's not compatible.
Many PCs still come with that "round" connector these days. And USB 2.0 is NOT 100% installed on new PCs, especially not low-end ones which still sell like girl-guide cookies.
Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:30 pm Subject:
QuoteGuest wrote:
Just a thought... since this is a PC-Mac divide issue (most PCs have USB 2, many Macs in use today do not), why not simply ship two different kinds of boxes?
The boxes going to the Circuit Citys, Best Buys, Comp USAs etc. could have the USB 2 cable, but no Firewire, since thats mostly a PC crowd shopping there. The boxes going to the Apple Stores could have both cables, since thats where the Mac folks shop.
This would have two benefits-
1) Apple would still see significant cost savings, since the majority of iPods are not sold at Apple Stores
2) It would drive traffic to Apple Stores, since the savvy would go there for the better deal. And while they're there, they might just pick up something else they need, offsetting the additional cost of the FW cable.
The only downside is that Best Buy etc. might be mildly miffed that the Apple Store box is a slightly better deal. But so long as the iPod is selling like hotcakes for them and making them tons of cash, I'm sure they'll find a way to live with it.
Although an interesting idea, it is a logistical nightmare. Harkens back to the day of the Centris vs Performa lines that Apple did way back: "This is the same as that except that this part is different, otherwise..."
Simplicity in the supply chain is key to success in commodities.
Mon Feb 28, 2005 5:12 pm Subject: PC keyboards still use PS/2 connectors
That "ADB" port is actually a PS/2 keyboard connector, and it is still very much the standard in the PC world. USB keyboards are not very common yet. USB mice are just beginning to replace PS/2 mice. ADB was never available on PCs, it is the "Apple Desktop Bus" and was only ever on Macs.
Good lord. Just because ports looks the same doesn't mean they are. I understand the users of our great Macs (yes, I have a rev.A powermac g5 dual 2Ghz and the most recent rev powerbook 15") aren't really techies but PLEASE, PLEASE make sure you know what you're bitching about before you bitch. (I switched to Apple 1.5 years ago for productivity reasons. I got tired of the constant varii and spyware issues. I am a network and systems administrator by trade and get rather annoyed when either side slams the other with "facts" which aren't facts.)
QuoteGuest wrote:
Apple doomed it when FW800 required a different connector. It won't last that much longer as an audio or DV port. Audio is already moving to USB2. If USB can get up to the sustained throughput, not just burst speeds, of Firewire for DV streaming, that's all it will take to kiss it good-bye no matter how fast FW gets. That's the only thing keeping FW alive now.
Joe Futral
erm no its not. firewire has other advantages apart from speed. its the industry standard for video and that won't change overnight - its also what almost every Mac user is going to use for external hard disks etc..
Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:14 am Subject: Re: IT'S NOT ADB, IT'S PS-2
QuoteAnonymous wrote:
Good lord. Just because ports looks the same doesn't mean they are. I understand the users of our great Macs (yes, I have a rev.A powermac g5 dual 2Ghz and the most recent rev powerbook 15") aren't really techies but PLEASE, PLEASE make sure you know what you're bitching about before you bitch. (I switched to Apple 1.5 years ago for productivity reasons. I got tired of the constant varii and spyware issues. I am a network and systems administrator by trade and get rather annoyed when either side slams the other with "facts" which aren't facts.)
Interestingly, though, an ADB extension cable makes a great Svideo cable. They use the same pinout and configuration.
And no, ADB and PS/2 are not the same. You are quite correct about that. Pinout (and I believe connector size and layout) is different.
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