TMO Reports - UBS: Tiger "Key" to Apple's Mac Growth
by , 3:15 AM EDT, April 13th, 2005
With Tuesday's announcement that Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger will be released April 29, UBS Investment Research analyst Ben Reitzes predicted a bright future for Apple Computer's software business Tuesday, saying the company will reap some US$1 billion in total revenue from Tiger and other applications this fiscal year.
"We believe the next big "multiplier" business to get attention will be Apple's software," Reitzes said in a commentary obtained by The Mac Observer. "We believe the math behind Apple's software potential is attractive, making estimates conservative...We believe Apple can benefit from two full months of Tiger sales in its fiscal 3Q05 (June quarter)."
Mr. Reitzes said his firm believes that Apple's software is extremely well suited for "the digital lifestyle" that consumers are rapidly adopting.
"With delays at Microsoft for Longhorn and battles with viruses, we believe the time is right for Apple to regain share on the back of Tiger," he said. "Over 10 million Apple users have still not upgraded to systems that run OSX, and we believe that Tiger may push many over the edge."
UBS estimated the annual revenue run rate of Apple's iTunes business to be $500 million, $400 million for iPod peripherals, $2.5 billion for Apple retail sales and $4 billion for iPod sales.
"With increased sales of Macs and an already large install base of users, we believe the revenue opportunity for software could be significant," Mr. Reitzes wrote. "In fact, one could argue that with its new stores, an enhanced online store, and broadened distribution, this could be Apple's year to see its software sales surge."
Assuming no major "bugs" when Tiger is released, Mr. Reitzes said he believes Apple may see up to 25% of its existing Mac OS X users upgrade to Tiger over the next few quarters, compared to 10-12% for a typical upgrade.
"As a result, we believe our software revenue estimates of $990 million for (fiscal year 2005) and $1.18 billion for (fiscal year 2006) are conservative," he wrote.
Mr. Reitzes also predicted that software could help hardware and predicted a 33% jump in CPU sales for the fiscal year. On the downside, UBS is estimating Power Mac sales will fall 10.7% for the fiscal year while PowerBook sales will go down 12.3%.
Mr. Reitzes is maintaining his 'Buy2' rating on Apple (AAPL) with a price target of $50 per share.
Apple's last remaining market niche the creative pro market is down for the final count. Another big drop in Power Mac and PowerBook sales is forecast. Expect the few remaining software developers for the Apple pro market to start pulling out sometime this year. The final coupe de grace was the quality of the G5 Power Macs, even the TMO called them noisy, buggy, and overpriced. Check the facts (3rd paragraph):
http://www.themacobserver.com/editorial/2004/05/13.1.shtml
Good call, RC. You've found an article where Macs are bashed (although the TMO article hardly bashed them, it just pointed out (the Mac community doesn't tend to hide or obscure things) some of the annoyances of the new, buggy G5s). With your powers of procurement I bet you could find an article praising peecees. Such articles are about as rare. =)
The news media has resorted to reporting the routine, today the story is another rash of Windows security problems, oh hum. Anyway with all the bad press that Windows is getting, home users and institutions maybe inclined to swtich to something more secure such as Tiger.
probably not. Institutions do not use Macs due to their lack of user superiority in heavy usage areas when compared to Windows systems. Tell me why again Mac's are only like ten percent all systems out there and an even smaller percentage in the work place?
Anonymous wrote: probably not. Institutions do not use Macs due to their lack of user superiority in heavy usage areas when compared to Windows systems.
I've always thought that Mac users had LOTS of 'user superiority.' Unless you mean something else by that phrase.
Guest wrote: probably not. Institutions do not use Macs due to their lack of user superiority in heavy usage areas when compared to Windows systems. Tell me why again Mac's are only like ten percent all systems out there and an even smaller percentage in the work place?
Some places need to use vertical market software that is only available on Windows, but other than that why don't you tell us why?
One of recently announced security problems was Word. Windows users can't even use their most popular word processor without risking a problem.
a superior system, there's less software and the software there is, is just copies of stuff that Microsoft and third-parties have been making for PC's since the dawn of computers, real innovative... They are more expensive, harder for the beginners who have trouble using the mouse, cost more to upgrade with all the OS releases you have to pay for every year, and while they are more secure (there are less trojans, spyware, viruses for mac's, it's a fact), XPSP2 is secure enough that with a PIX firewall, none of our 130 computers gets hacked, they don't get viruses, and/or they retain a trivial amount of spyware. Forty of these computers are public operated as this is a library, so we're talking the cream of the crop for beginner computer users here. Calm your ego's and read that I'm not saying PC's are better than Mac's period. I'm saying in an institutional environment, such as a school, university, library, corporation, etc...PC's are better. They are just as reliable, cheaper, more user friendly, offer the greatest library of software (most of it original, think Office), easier to network, and if you're buying newer systems faster.
"One of recently announced security problems was Word. Windows users can't even use their most popular word processor without risking a problem."
There are security threats as worthless as this one on the Mac and 'secure' browsers such as Firefox. Please continue to overblow the risk this Word threat poses in order to further your view point. Now that you're done with that, please provide evidence of anyone not being able to use an Office productivity program (i.e. Word, Access, Powerpoint, Excel, anything but Outlook) because of a security flaw or a concern for getting hacked.
"I've always thought that Mac users had LOTS of 'user superiority.' Unless you mean something else by that phrase."
Mac users may have user superiority (although I'd say it's even with PC's users, the best of both worlds are comparable I'm sure), which means the people who use macs can use them well. What I'm saying is that the mac itself is not user friendly, so a complete computer beginner who has trouble clicking and dragging files let's say, would have an easier time using a PC than a mac.
I think it is interesting that RC cites an article that is almost a year old to point out production flaws in Apple's professional line. ALL computer companies have units that leave the factory with defects, so BFD. The REAL news would be if Apple didn't remedy this problem, or make its consumers whole.
Anonymous wrote: What I'm saying is that the mac itself is not user friendly, so a complete computer beginner who has trouble clicking and dragging files let's say, would have an easier time using a PC than a mac.
It's harder to drag files on a Mac then on a PC?
As far as I can tell, they're pretty much the same. Am I missing something?
acdc1174 wrote: I think it is interesting that RC cites an article that is almost a year old to point out production flaws in Apple's professional line. ALL computer companies have units that leave the factory with defects, so BFD. The REAL news would be if Apple didn't remedy this problem, or make its consumers whole.
And their professional line is over a year old. Makes sense. ALL computer companies have defective units, even beloved Apple. We get Macfixit.com to thank for all Mac users' problems. It's fun to reminesce of Apple quality problems. I would like to tape the poor Mac users with these problems and put together a blooper reel!
On my Macs I use Adobe Creative Suite, FileMaker Pro, iLife, Toast and even the clunky MicroSoft Office. So what else do I need that I can only get on Windows, some cheesy game?
I will continue that point out that Office is a security problem.
Quote
Guest wrote: a superior system, there's less software and the software there is, is just copies of stuff that Microsoft and third-parties have been making for PC's since the dawn of computers, real innovative... They are more expensive, harder for the beginners who have trouble using the mouse, cost more to upgrade with all the OS releases you have to pay for every year, and while they are more secure (there are less trojans, spyware, viruses for mac's, it's a fact), XPSP2 is secure enough that with a PIX firewall, none of our 130 computers gets hacked, they don't get viruses, and/or they retain a trivial amount of spyware. Forty of these computers are public operated as this is a library, so we're talking the cream of the crop for beginner computer users here. Calm your ego's and read that I'm not saying PC's are better than Mac's period. I'm saying in an institutional environment, such as a school, university, library, corporation, etc...PC's are better. They are just as reliable, cheaper, more user friendly, offer the greatest library of software (most of it original, think Office), easier to network, and if you're buying newer systems faster.
"One of recently announced security problems was Word. Windows users can't even use their most popular word processor without risking a problem."
There are security threats as worthless as this one on the Mac and 'secure' browsers such as Firefox. Please continue to overblow the risk this Word threat poses in order to further your view point. Now that you're done with that, please provide evidence of anyone not being able to use an Office productivity program (i.e. Word, Access, Powerpoint, Excel, anything but Outlook) because of a security flaw or a concern for getting hacked.
CloseViewName:Guest Wed Apr 13, 2005 4:12 pmSubject: Point
"Well, do you want to try to explain it again? Because that's what I got out of your last post."
Beginner computer stuff. Like changing the background, saving and opening files, switching between programs, changing the volume level, running a cmd prompt, viewing hardware settings, changing an IP address, setting up a printer, install software or drivers...beginner computer stuff.
"On my Macs I use Adobe Creative Suite, FileMaker Pro, iLife, Toast and even the clunky MicroSoft Office. So what else do I need that I can only get on Windows, some cheesy game?"
It's great that you only need such a minute amount of software, but you too are missing the point. I'm comparing a PC to a mac in a large multi-user (and in the case of my examples, public) environment. Not just what you need.
Guest wrote: "Well, do you want to try to explain it again? Because that's what I got out of your last post."
Beginner computer stuff. Like changing the background, saving and opening files, switching between programs, changing the volume level, running a cmd prompt, viewing hardware settings, changing an IP address, setting up a printer, install software or drivers...beginner computer stuff.
All of that stuff is easy to do, and easy to learn, on a Macintosh.
Forget it Small White Car, this person is either a troll or is full of it.
Beginner computer stuff. Like changing the background, saving and opening files, switching between programs, changing the volume level, running a cmd prompt, viewing hardware settings, changing an IP address, setting up a printer, install software or drivers...beginner computer stuff.
So you're saying this stuff is harder on a Mac?
Nearly ALL of that is in the system prefrence panel. Once you get there everything is labeled clearly and in english. How can it be hard to find ONE thing on the comptuer?
And saving, opening, switching programs...those all use the SAME keyboard shortcuts! Well, I mean they changed "Alt" to "Apple" but other then that it's the same. I just don't undersand how you think using the same keys is "harder" then it would be on another computer.
Alt-Tab ... Apple-Tab ... I don't see the difference.
By the way, Excel, Word, and PowerPoint, the three core apps of Office, debuted first on the Mac. Even now, the Mac version is considered by many to lead the Windows version in innovation.
And most of Adobe's products were first created for Macs.
Funny my girlfriend works in a library (3 actually) and only one thing is remotely consistent about the pc's there in this very public arena and that is they are rarely all working, and when they are not, it takes a week to do anything about it because of the strain on the IT staff who have all the other non working pc's at other sites to contend with.
Reliability? Well another friend who loves her Dell was only to keen to tell me how wonderful the service department was in repairing her 3 month old machine. Now there is someone who seriously misses the point. Now for service pack 2. Where I was working recently (the same week that the Department of Employment here collasped under its fateful introduction) not only did the HP computers need to be upgraded to accept it and left a day or two to see if it seriously slowed them down or made them crash meaning therefore 3 visits by the it staff along with vital new parts (hey the computers are 3 years old after all) but it stopped all email for a week after installation. Of course a business can no longer refuse to have it installed as part of their agreement with Microsoft but despite the costs involved however Im sure it helped reduce viruses on any emails that did get through.
As for easier to use, one has to be a real bigot to ignore the years of evidence, both anecdotal and formal that shows the superiority of the mac in this area (its why they dominated education doh) and its superior work performance to the extent that even most of my pc friends credit it with that fact. Indeed I still find it amusing how many users on pc are totally unable to successfully copy or move files and folders on a pc easily or consistently, despite the supposed improved navigation boasted of. The Mac is renowned for its plug and play capability so again only someone bereft of objectivity or technical knowledge would state otherwise.
As for G5 noise problems I regularly work on them as a designer and have noticed that unless heavily worked they are (certainly in their preseent form) almost silent in operation.
Finally software. Some people seem to have conveniently forgotten that almost all creative software appeared on the Mac before windows (hey how did I ever get along without Coreldraw) and as someone stated above this is also true of much of the Office suite.
But hey if people prefer to live in that particular form of bliss them let them do so, or are we such a threat to you?.
Anonymous wrote: Funny my girlfriend works in a library. I make fun of it all the time. I found a pc that is not working, so I took the opportunity to convert pc users into Mac slaves.
Reliability? Dell. Now there is someone who seriously misses the point. Now for service pack 2... it rocks! SP2 helped the HP computers. It did stall the systems. Now I know why Apple doesn't make service packs. The service packs Apple would make will destroy Macs. Macs aren't as easy to use. I'm ignorant on Windows but will tell you I use it every day, recently switched, yeahyeahyeah...
As for G5 noise problems, they are seriously noisy when I play Chess on OS X.
Finally software. I won't explain how software MAGICALLY works better on Macs without credit to programmers because we all know credit can only go to Apple!
But hey if people prefer to live in that particular form of matter go ahead and live as a colloid or gas or liquid?.
Ah the joys of allowing unfettered access for posting comments. Heretofore, the posters on this site have been reasonably polite and mature, this kind of pointless nonsense is just plain preschool.
Getting a Mac on a network is considerbly easiern than getting a wintle machine on a network. The total computer novice (A person how has not used a computer before) has less trouble using a Mac than a pc (My non computer interested wife is proof of that). Getting a pc on a wireless network is either hit or miss. When you have a hit it is aproximatly as easy as getting a mac on. When you have a miss. Forget getting help from Windows XP. The Mac SuperUser especially one with nix skills will be able to run circles around a Windows SuperUser. Do not confuse your knowlegde of the windows operating and the lack of knowlegde of the mac operating system with easy of use. I have used Wintle hardware longer than Mac hardware and i prefer the mac by far
"a superior system, there's less software and the software there is, is just copies of stuff that Microsoft and third-parties have been making for PC's since the dawn of computers, real innovative... "
Hey, look, another person who accuses Apple of doing the things that Microsoft actually does. Sorry, but Microsoft created its empire by making a poor clone of the Mac OS, and the software there is for Macs is usually the premeir software in its catagory. For example, Final Cut Pro, iTunes, etc.
Or have you been missing the fact that the Windows PC industry is still trying to catch up to Apple with their "media computers"?
"cost more to upgrade with all the OS releases you have to pay for every year"
Liar. Nobody's forced to upgrade their Mac's operating system to the latest version.
"and while they are more secure (there are less trojans, spyware, viruses for mac's, it's a fact)"
Less trojans, spyware, and viruses? There are NO trojans, spyware, and virsues for OS X.
"XPSP2 is secure enough that with a PIX firewall, none of our 130 computers gets hacked, they don't get viruses, and/or they retain a trivial amount of spyware."
There's no such thing as a trivial amount of spyware, unless you consider a sluggish PC, a laboured internet connection, and stolen system resources "trivial". Also, I'm using Windows and I've never had a virus or piece of spyware on it because I take the necessary measures to prevent it, but that doesn't make Windows any less a piece of insecure, faulty junk.
"I'm saying in an institutional environment, such as a school, university, library, corporation, etc...PC's are better. They are just as reliable, cheaper, more user friendly"
What you're saying is absolute bunk. Windows is not as reliable as the Mac OS by any stretch. I've had to re-install various versions of Windows so many times it's all blended together in my head. I've had to re-install various versions of the Mac OS zero times. And errors in the Mac OS very rarely lead to destroying the entire system.
Low-tier Windows PCs might be cheaper up front, but factor in the support and maintenence costs, and also facter in that you're getting what you pay for.
As for Windows being more user friendly, that's quantifiable garbage. There's nothing user friendly about hiding the things most essential to using and understanding a computer behind intimidating "Advanced" tabs, there's nothing user friendly about Windows defaulting to hide file extensions and open folders all in the same window, there's nothing user-friendly about installers that force items into the start menu and default to installing in C:\Windows\Program Files directory instead of the directory you actually ran the installer from... If I had to list all the user-unfriendly aspects of Windows, I'd be here all lifetime.
"offer the greatest library of software (most of it original, think Office)"
Office is not mostly original.
"easier to network, and if you're buying newer systems faster."
Easier to network? Most of the time it's easier to network a Mac to a Windows PC, than a Windows PC to another Windows PC.
"continue to overblow the risk this Word threat poses in order to further your view point."
Over blow? It's a word processor, for god's sake. How can a security risk be in a WORD PROCESSOR? That's like if there was a security flaw in the Windows calculator. There's laziness and ineptitude in that to an insane degree.
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