Apple Exec: Shuffle Grabs 58% of Flash Player Market; What Cell Phone Threat?
First on TMO - Apple Exec: Shuffle Grabs 58% of Flash Player Market; What Cell Phone Threat?
by , 6:45 AM EDT, May 4th, 2005
On the market less than six months, Apple's iPod shuffle has grabbed a 58% share of the flash-based digital media player market, up from 43% in February, company chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer has told Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Milunovich in a recent interview.
In a report to clients released Wednesday and obtained by The Mac Observer, Mr. Oppenheimer said the Apple executive told him preliminary March results from research marketing firm NPD showed the shuffle's market share rose from 43% in February to 58% in March, what Mr. Milunovich characterized as "a stunning figure."
Mr. Oppenheimer reportedly said Apple was "supply-constrained in March and will be interested to see the April (sales) data." Mr. Milunovich said he was told by the exec that "Apple isn't feeling competitive heat yet" in the digital media device market from the likes of Creative, Sony, iRiver and others.
The Apple CFO reportedly told Mr. Milunovich NPD numbers also showed Apple with a 90% market share in hard disk-based players -- such as its iPod and iPod mini -- while its iTunes music store market share was above 70% in March. In Japan, Apple's said it controls 40% of the market with its iPod player, but gave no evidence as to where their numbers came from.
Representatives of NPD were not immediately available to confirm the numbers from Mr. Oppenheimer. As for Apple's numbers of market share for online music sales, Apple is calculating it's own market share number based on its knowledge of downloads from its iTMS and subtracting from the total number of online music service downloads reported weekly by Nielsen/SoundScan.
Cell phone threat minimal, exec says
Mr. Oppenheimer said Apple "doesn't appear concerned" about the future threat from cellular phones that play music.
"(Apple) management argued that iPod will remain the best way to manage and listen to music with MP3 capability in handsets more complementary than a replacement," Mr. Milunovich wrote. "The negatives of music on a handset include a worse user interface and limited battery life," he said he was told.
Mr. Oppenheimer said he "doesn't foresee problems working with (cellular) carriers," to employ iPod features in mobile phones.
The Wall Street analyst said he expects "wireless and video capability" in iPods before the Christmas buying season, but gave no indication if Mr. Oppenheimer hinted of such a product or not. "Our guess is that iPod will run short video clips," he wrote. Apple's long time policy has been to not discuss un-announced products.
Mac TV spots on the horizon?
Mr. Milunovich did not say he was told so specifically, but wrote to clients that "Macs may be more advertised" on television in the U.S. in the near future. The Wall Street analyst said "we look for coming Mac ads to aid the halo effect."
Mr. Milunovich reiterated his 'Buy' rating on Apple stock (AAPL) with a price target of US$51 per share.
"We believe Apple's emerging consumer franchise can grow earnings and cash flows," he wrote. "Apple’s earnings growth could have upside surprises due to Apple’s emerging strategic position in the digital home."
Observer Comments
Wed May 04, 2005 8:20 am Subject: not from current model cell phones...
that's for sure.
But I was at CompUSA last night and a young Japanese gentleman was there at the service desk and he had what I believe is one of the coolest looking devices I've ever seen. It was about the size of a box of 12 pencils, made of black and chrome, and when the service manager asked him about it, he said it was his cell phone, mp3player, and digital camcorder! It fit in the palm of his hand, but what had to be the lens was also 1/3 of it. This thing was unbelievable. It even had a speakerphone on it.
You can't buy that in this country...yet. I know some phones take digital movies, but the quality is awful. This thing is a full blown camcorder. (Thank goodness or we'd have people using the camcorders while driving!)
So, rock on Shuffle while you can (I have mine!). The ride may be short.
QuoteTiger wrote:
that's for sure.
But I was at CompUSA last night and a young Japanese gentleman was there at the service desk and he had what I believe is one of the coolest looking devices I've ever seen. It was about the size of a box of 12 pencils, made of black and chrome, and when the service manager asked him about it, he said it was his cell phone, mp3player, and digital camcorder! It fit in the palm of his hand, but what had to be the lens was also 1/3 of it. This thing was unbelievable. It even had a speakerphone on it.
You can't buy that in this country...yet. I know some phones take digital movies, but the quality is awful. This thing is a full blown camcorder. (Thank goodness or we'd have people using the camcorders while driving!)
So, rock on Shuffle while you can (I have mine!). The ride may be short.
I think the audience for something like that will be minimal. Usually multi-use devices don't do much well at all.
Wed May 04, 2005 8:49 am Subject: cell and mp3?
QuoteStormbringer wrote:
Usually devices like that don't do any one thing well,except for Apple's devices, they do anything with perfection (Steve Jobs, please acknowledge my existence). Why would I want all that stuff shoved into one battery-drained device like the iPod.
But then I don't even carry a cell phone because my Windows friends won't talk to me.
Quotejimothy wrote:QuoteGuest wrote:QuoteStormbringer wrote:
[intentional misquote from a previous post]
manipulating another reader is humorless. Can we, please?
Whereas changing the wording of the quote is a cheap shot, deleting selected words without use of elipses to change the tone of the quote without actual misquoting is downright fun!
Wed May 04, 2005 11:34 am Subject: Re: No Really
QuoteAnonymous wrote:Quotejimothy wrote:QuoteGuest wrote:QuoteStormbringer wrote:
[intentional misquote from a previous post]
These iPods/Macs/Apple Fanatics/iLemmings are played out, juvenile, and humorless. Can we move past it, please?
Yes. You could stop wasting your time (and, by extension, ours) on these boards.
I bet the price of flash memory will continue to drop, production will continue to ramp up, and the 512 shuffle's price will drop anyway. Maybe not to $49, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $79.
QuoteMace wrote:
Even so, I feel Apple should at some point either release a 256 MBytes iPod shuffle or work with Sandisk or Lexar to come out with one, at a price point of $49. My take is this would happen in this coming Christmas.
...I feel Apple should at some point either release a 256 MBytes iPod shuffle or....
Why? That's like saying they will come out with a low end Mac with a 10 gig HD. The cost savings between 256 and 512 is almost nil. Like Billy K said, memory prices are dropping fast and hard. (i.e. I picked up a 40x 1gig SD card for 65 bucks, 8 months ago; not bad).
The 512 will continue to be their low-end music player for some time. They will NOT move backwards with this device.
That's my take on this.
QuoteEngine Joe wrote:QuoteAnonymous wrote:Quotejimothy wrote:QuoteGuest wrote:QuoteStormbringer wrote:
[intentional misquote from a previous post]
These iPods/Macs/Apple Fanatics/iLemmings are played out, juvenile, and humorless. Can we move past it, please?
Yes. You could stop wasting your time (and, by extension, ours) on these boards.
Yeah and my time too! It's valuable! That's why I'm posting on a mac news message board in the middle of the day! Oh wait I don't actually care. I just wanted to contribute to the length of this quote.
A 90% marketshare in harddrive based players. A near-instant 58% marketshare in flash based players. A 70% marketshare in online music stores.
So, where's that giant collapse of the iPod/iTMS brand I was hearing about? Where are the competing MP3 players and music stores that were supposed to stop Apple dead in their tracks? What happened, Reality Check? What happened, Chris Gorog? What happened, Sim Wong Hoo?
An earlier post regarding the popularity, or lack thereof, with regards to multi-function devices is on the money.
I observe consumer trends closely. It's part of my job. One thing that people tend to shy away from is any product that appears complicated to use. Regardless of whether a multi-function device is or is not difficult to use does not matter, the perception among a public already facing enough complexity in their modern lifestyle is that more functions equals more to learn and master and, even more challenging, is figuring out how such a product dovetails with the spontaneous kind of events for which it is so often designed for.
This explains in part the popularity of the Shuffle. It does just one thing. It does it very well. It is inexpensive. People respond to that. Switch it on, it works. No-brainer. Commpare this to the complexity of turning on a mobile phone and finding the right button to do the job. Forgeddaboutit.
Anything below $99 is an accessory. Look for the 1gb shuffle to drop to the $99 price point and a 2gb (or something like that) to offered at the $149 price point. That is my bet for the xmas line up. $49 shuffle is a stretch in my thinking. I'm a campus reseller and people tend to lean toward the current 1gb, they aren't afraid of the additional expense. It is only $40 more at education price.
Thu May 05, 2005 2:10 am Subject: it's fuhgeddabowdit (from an old born/raised Noo Yawkah)
Quotecoaten wrote:
An earlier post regarding the popularity, or lack thereof, with regards to multi-function devices is on the money.
I observe consumer trends closely. It's part of my job. One thing that people tend to shy away from is any product that appears complicated to use. Regardless of whether a multi-function device is or is not difficult to use does not matter, the perception among a public already facing enough complexity in their modern lifestyle is that more functions equals more to learn and master and, even more challenging, is figuring out how such a product dovetails with the spontaneous kind of events for which it is so often designed for.
This explains in part the popularity of the Shuffle. It does just one thing. It does it very well. It is inexpensive. People respond to that. Switch it on, it works. No-brainer. Commpare this to the complexity of turning on a mobile phone and finding the right button to do the job. Forgeddaboutit.
Everyone is a guest. This is Yet Another Blog... do I really need to track another login and subject myself to another gross of junk mail?
That's a rhetorical question -- of course I do! It is a management strategy which disregards human responses.
I'd also like to name the intentional misquoting by removing bits of peoples comments as "Fox Echo" in honor of the "Fair and Balanced" reporting service of our corporate overlords.
Oh. Back on topic...
I think that Apple and Motorolla are going to do well by teaming up on cell phones for music. The other cell phone companies want to have control, but offer nothing but a fancy platform for expensive ringtones. When you compare the utility of using iTunes on the computer, iPod or iMotorolla device or even CD, then you have INCREASED the devices that someone can enjoy music on.
The other cell phone companies are brain-dead. They are going to lose big trying to squeeze pennies out of customers. Whatever gives people the most control and least hassles wins. Also, it has to make them look cool. Obviously, right now this is the iPlatform.
In 6 more months, all these companies who were going to bury Apple will be complaining about Monopoly abuse.
Thu May 05, 2005 11:08 pm Subject:
QuoteGuest wrote:
A 90% marketshare in harddrive based players. A near-instant 58% marketshare in flash based players. A 70% marketshare in online music stores.
So, where's that giant collapse of the iPod/iTMS brand I was hearing about? Where are the competing MP3 players and music stores that were supposed to stop Apple dead in their tracks? What happened, Reality Check? What happened, Chris Gorog? What happened, Sim Wong Hoo?
Good question. The answer is, Apple shut them all the f*** up by kicking major ass. The doubter haterade parade got it wrong, and there isn't much they can say about it. Can you say laughingstock?
Oh, I'm sure RC could spout some pathetic, delusional drivel about how "the end of Apple's dominance is near", but in light of reality, no one would take him seriously. There'd probably even be a part of RC's brain that would be yelling, "Ahhh, shut up bitch" to himself.
Most likely that phone was the Nokia 7280
http://www.nokiausa.com/images/phn/126x126/ph_7280_lrg_trans.gif
Specs and info:
http://www.nokiausa.com/phones/7280
It is now availaable in the US. Since it's Tri-Band GSM, likely any unlocked one could be actived with your local GSM carrier(s).
It's a pretty slick phone. Lots of nioe features, plus the
"Naviâ„¢Spinner" is pretty cool.
* art *
visit this site
htttp://spaces.msn/members/jameszimtuson
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