TMO Reports - Piper Jaffray: Apple Will Hit Street iPod Expectations in June Qtr.

by , 12:25 PM EDT, June 24th, 2005

On Friday, Piper Jaffray analysts Gene Munster and Michael Olson issued a new research report that begins: "The Street is generally aware that Apple will likely not show significant upside for iPod in the June quarter, but we do believe Apple will hit the Street iPod number of 5.5m units, up from 5.3m in March." Based on a survey the analysts conducted with 100 non-Apple U.S. retailers, they also believe that "the iPod business will reaccelerate as Apple enters into the seasonally strong September and December quarters."

Mr. Munster and Mr. Olson's survey touched on Best Buy (25 stores), CompUSA (25), The Good Guys (25), Circuit City (15) and Fry's (10). When asking about devices with 5GB or more storage capacity, they found that 63% of the sales reps they talked to recommended an iPod, with the 6GB iPod mini and the 20GB iPod the most popular two choices. In the under 5GB of storage category, 52% of the salespeople recommended the iPod.

Among salespeople who direct customers toward an iPod, 32% of them do so because they think it's easy to use, while 21% see believe that what Mr. Olson and Mr. Munster call "the massive eco-system of iPod accessories" is reason enough. 14% of them like the integration with iTunes.

Among all the salespeople who don't recommend the iPod, 25% pointed to the lack of an FM receiver while 14% think the iTunes requirement is too limiting and another 14% believe that other devices are simply better. In the 5GB or more storage category, 19% of the sales reps who don't prefer the iPod lead customers to a Creative MP3 player while 11% like what iRiver has to offer. In the under 5GB of storage segment, 13% of them recommend Rio's devices and 12% like Creative.

According to Mr. Munster and Mr. Olson, the big picture view of Apple is that the company's "domination in digital music is a critical piece to the story, but we do not believe iPod is the only growth avenue for the company." They continue to see evidence of the halo effect, pointing to NPD sales data that showed Apple picking up 2% U.S. retail market share in May, and "expect that by the end of [calendar year 2005] more than 35m iPods will have shipped, providing Apple with a greater scope of awareness for various products."

The analysts maintain their "Outperform" rating on Apple's stock and have set a US$52 12-month target price. As The Mac Observer posted this article, Apple's stock was at $38.41, down 1.23% for the day.