RC is doomed, here is the proof

http://securityawareness.blogspot.com/2005/06/mad-as-hell-part-vii-mactel-vs-wintel.html

Interesting read

All the Mac bashers and zombies who say that APple users are delusional and blind fanboys should take note of this article. This man's experience is the very core and foundation of why we love the Mac. It's speaks almost point by point to what we've been saying all along. The Mac is just better.

If you can't beleive us, take it from someone who had an open mind, and dared to think differently. This guy works in the so-called "real world" as many Windows IT zealots will call it, and he's finding his switch to be a triumph. Face the facts. We have chosen a better platform for computing that minimizes headaches and maximizes fun and productivity. The rest of the world is slowly waking up to that fact.

Welcome to the green side of the fence.

Another bad day for the Windows culstists. But then again, since Apple's never in trouble like they fantasize that it is, I suppose every day is a bad day for them.

It's comments like that that make people begin to doubt the rest of your writing Winn. Linux will NEVER achieve 12% market-share. No I am not against Linux. All my servers bar one run Linux or FreeBSD. And 16% for the Mac is just a start, it's going to get MUCH higher. If Apple releases OS X for Intel to run on PC boxes, Apple will take over from MS. The timing is perfection. Just as Longhorn is released and people see that it's not such a big deal in terms of being better, but a BIG deal in terms of requiring new apps and learning new ways of doing things, Apple will release Leopard. Switch to Longhorn or switch to Leopard? The choice will be clear, Leopards eat long horned animals for lunch.

Winn himself even said those numbers mean nothing. Personally I don't understand why Microsoft has managed to maintain more than 50% of the OS share.
I suppose it's like internal combustion engines. We all know they're bad for us and the environment but the government and economy would collapse if we were to shift to alternate resources. Too many companies are dependent on the Windows architecture and the support staff necessary to operate it.
I wish that Apple could get more large corporations to come out about their experiences with the Mac platform.

How many supercomputers did M$ have in the Top 500?

Oh, and Al, RC will respond as soon as he reformats his machine again...

Not just one person either but many in his company. All finding out how truly reliable the Mac platform is and secure it is as well. Pulling the plug on the PC's from getting to the internet was the best and probably the only way to keep them safe right now and maybe for the next 2 or more years at the rate Microsoft is going. It's definately a non-biased opinion from a real ex-windows person switching to the Mac.

I'm not even sure there are any Windows cultists - it's hard to find anyone who knows what an O/S is that thinks it's a good one. Sure, there are people into modding and benchmarking how many FPS they can achieve in Quake at 2000x1024, but I'd classify them as hardware cultists.

On the other hand, you do get a cult around Linux, BSD, Beos, and OS/X. In technical circles you will find people with a preference for Solaris or AIX. I've never heard anyone get excited about Windows as an O/S. The main reason given for using it is always 'compatibility'.

(Caveat: There are many developers who swear by MS development tools. Compared to using a platform like Eclipse I'm sure they're great, just as XCode is great compared to Eclipse),

As said, the main selling point for most people is application compatibility.

Rewind to about 1990, and no one had a PC at home. They either an 8 bit machine, or an Atari, Amiga, or Mac. All of which had better O/S than PCs and better GUI than the contemporary version of Windows, but none of which made in-roads into business. Even in business, the game wasn't settled, with IBM offering OS/2 against MS, and non Unix based O/S like Vax still kicking around on servers.

By about '96, all the other home computing players had been wiped out by commodity PCs and games consoles. There was no 'next generation' beyond the 16-bit. Everyone wanted 'compatibility' thinking this meant running the same software rather than compatibility of information. Although binary compatibility was pretty important at this stage - the big trend in corporate computing was for client-server computing, and those clients were always Windows.

Now : Those clients are almost always browsers. I work in a company supplying systems to banks, and ALL of them are replacing complex native client software with simple browser apps that focus just on what particular staff are doing. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out what implication that has for the desktop.

Although both Larry Ellison and Sun got it wrong in thinking they could flog Network Stations - simple computers running only browsers - what they got wrong was pricing them more than commodity PCs. If someone was smart at Apple, they would be flogging MacMini's to call centres and other big corporate offices - cheap and near silent (it's amazing how much noise a room full of PCs make).

Anyway, the point is that the O/S is becoming less important to people's computing use - both business and domestic. For gamers, it's still very important, although it's really the 3D hardware that counts these days, and I can imagine a trend away from DirectX to OpenGL if companies are going to be able to cross-sell the same game to Intel based Mac and Linux systems.

For a lot of what the non-gaming community use their computers for, it's already an irrelevance. We're running a mixed community of Macs and PCs at home, sharing the same audio, video, images and documents. Not the software that produces or edits them. But at last we are approaching the situation where we would have been 5-10 years ago if we'd had a mixed market of incompatible machines.

In short, domestic users want their computers to be more like other appliances. You can play the same CD in any player, but some give better quality audio, others more features, and some are dirt cheap.

For the 92-02 period, Windows was the 'format', but now that is shifting to the data. And I also think consumers are up for format change in a way that they didn't use to be - DVD took over from video far more rapidly than CD replaced vinyl. And that's despite DVD being non-recordable at first. MP3 and iPod have taken off fast too.

As for those stats : Who knows what the end percentages will be. I don't see Apple ever being anything other than the Sony of the home computing world, and 16% sounds way high unless OS/X starts running on generic Intel boxes. Maybe 16% of the US market, but globally, pirated copies of Windows are the most popular home O/S.

Linux : yesterday I watched two of our top developers (one of whom only runs Linux both at home and work) spend all day trying to install Red Hat on recaltriant PC, to create a new internal test server. If it had been Windows, we'd have handed the job to our MS certified techies, who are far cheaper than programming talent. So we're not quite there. My general impression is that desktop Linux is about where Windows 95 was. At some point it will reach it's ME (in my mind the first decent consumer version of Windows - i.e. plug'n'play). And as other analysts have said, all it needs is a hardware company to do what Apple did with BSD, and the market might take off.

It will happen - especially in the emerging markets (where their governments are backing efforts to reduce dependency on US suppliers), and especially in the public sector and big business (anywhere you might be looking at changing 100 machines or more and you have to account for TCO. Small businesses will stick with what they know, and there's an army of MS certified techies out there who will also vote with sticking with what they know.

I just find it hard to imagine that Windows will have even a 75% market share in, say, 20 years time. Just as 20 years ago I'd never have thought that something so behind the times could have become so dominant. And if you look at the wider underlying pattern, the trend has been to Unix based O/S since the 1960s.

MS will certainly still be around, but like IBM they will have transformed what they do - and they're already doing it. Embracing the OASIS model for the next generation of MS Office shows confidence that people will continue to purchase and use Office for what it offers rather than because they're locked into MS format - which seemed the previous rational behind upgrades. With .NET they are trying to persuade developers that it's a more productive way of developing web applications than Java/Eclipse or LAMP, recognising that end users don't care what type of system they're connecting to.

(And I've bought MS Office twice since OpenOffice has been available, as I think it offers value for money - too many people focus on the cost of software while ignoring the cost of productivity - i.e. the developer mentioned before spending all day installing Red Hat is on an $80000 salary. If something increases his productivity 1%, it's worth $800).

I think that there is a tendency to think that MS is lost and will simply give up. I don't think that is going to happen. They simply have too much money and enough bright people to fight back.

They do have problems with Linux gaining strength over time and Apple having the potential to gain some serious market share now that they have decided to solve their chip problem.

For Linux the key will be delivering a GUi that an average person can use, both for the OS and for their basic apps. That gives added strength to the lower priced boxes for discount outlets from Wal-Mart to BestBuy. The extra kick will come when China starts flooding the market with boxes $100+ cheaper than Dell can deliver.

For Apple it is going to be the ability to deliver excitement at a price the average consumer can buy at a price that is acceptable to them. Mr. Ives will probably have as much influence on the market as the engineers and programmers.

Both Linux and Apple have the potential of breaking the 10% market share barrier, but it will be a bum fight. Apple's leverage is their ability to deliver on design, engineering and excellent software. Linux's ability will be based on a very large number of programmers that are working hard to make it happen because they love the project. MS will fight on for the money.

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Guest wrote:
The extra kick will come when China starts flooding the market with boxes $100+ cheaper than Dell can deliver.

I'm glad to see someone add China to the equation. They have recently had an industrial revolution like no other civilization in recorded history. The government owns the business and they're not scared to sell. They hire the smartest people for cheap and have a huge labor force, all union free. They compete like Microsoft, they ignore trademark and copyright and they'll give it away just to to stay in the game. By being a government as opposed to a specific country they pretty much get away with it. They also support the Arabs by buying more of their oil, there is no embargo on a counrty that doesn't observe human rights, it is China after all. China is emerging as a huge player in the tech game and is on their way to being a super power like no other if we don't wake up.

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Guest wrote:

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Guest wrote:
The extra kick will come when China starts flooding the market with boxes $100+ cheaper than Dell can deliver.

I'm glad to see someone add China to the equation. They have recently had an industrial revolution like no other civilization in recorded history. The government owns the business and they're not scared to sell. They hire the smartest people for cheap and have a huge labor force, all union free. They compete like Microsoft, they ignore trademark and copyright and they'll give it away just to to stay in the game. By being a government as opposed to a specific country they pretty much get away with it. They also support the Arabs by buying more of their oil, there is no embargo on a counrty that doesn't observe human rights, it is China after all. China is emerging as a huge player in the tech game and is on their way to being a super power like no other if we don't wake up.

Not to mention the big navy that they are building while ours is shrinking, state of the art, and very quiet, submarines among other vessels. Now they are have a bid to buy Unocal Oil from us, which comes with some valuable military technology. What was it Santayna said about learning history or repeating it? Sooner or later things are going to get very interesting that part of the world.

Before I talk about Linux and its future role in the world, I would like to respond to a previous post.

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Al Swearengen wrote:

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Guest wrote:

I'm glad to see someone add China to the equation. They have recently had an industrial revolution like no other civilization in recorded history. The government owns the business and they're not scared to sell. They hire the smartest people for cheap and have a huge labor force, all union free. They compete like Microsoft, they ignore trademark and copyright and they'll give it away just to to stay in the game. By being a government as opposed to a specific country they pretty much get away with it. They also support the Arabs by buying more of their oil, there is no embargo on a counrty that doesn't observe human rights, it is China after all. China is emerging as a huge player in the tech game and is on their way to being a super power like no other if we don't wake up.

Not to mention the big navy that they are building while ours is shrinking, state of the art, and very quiet, submarines among other vessels. Now they are have a bid to buy Unocal Oil from us, which comes with some valuable military technology. What was it Santayna said about learning history or repeating it? Sooner or later things are going to get very interesting that part of the world.

I am sorry to disagree with your assumptions...and they are big assumptions about China's future. China's economy will begin stagnating in about 5~10 years because the Chinese government wants to stop their economy from overheating. 5% of the population has 95% of the country's wealth in China.

These are the reason for China's overheating economy.

1st reason, China's economic growth rate was due to that country industrializing and finally coming to the modern age from a medieval infrastructure. This has occurred with South Korea and it is happening now with Southeast Asia.

2nd reason, China's currency is pegged to the US Dollar. The Yuan is greatly undervalued and that has been part of the driving force of the China's growth. China has had so large an influx of capital is due to her cheap educated labor market that now labor wages are rising in China because there are not enough labor supply to fill the labor demand. Those jobs are going to Southeast Asia.

The only reason China is buying Unocol Oil is that she wants to be the world's oil refinery. USA has not built a new refinery since the late 1970s because of environmental laws. By buying Unocol Oil, they can now sell cheap refined gasoline to the USA. That is good for the US environment, bad for China's environment. China has little concern for environmental damage, just as she has little concern for human rights and labor rights.

The reason China will not become a Superpower like the USA is because she does not believe in Property rights, such as Intellectual Property Rights, Trade Mark Rights, Copyrights. This is why China will just be the world's factory. Until China respects Property Rights she will be a very efficient world's factory, but just only a factory. China is the World's factory but she will never become a World superpower. Maybe an Asian Superpower but not a World superpower.

On the note of the military, the USA military is 2 generations ahead of any military in the world, that includes China. Let China waste her money of antique submarine technology.


Sorry about my rant but I had to respond to these fallacies about China.

Now....Linux programming and other computer related programming, the main country to be thinking about is India, not China. While China is the world's factory, India is the world's computer programming powerhouse. India, not China, will become the world's next Superpower. India is democratic and values property rights.

India has more computer programmers per capita than any other country. Because of India and their move toward Linux, Linux will become more user-friendly by the end of this decade. I greatly doubt that Linux will be more easier to use than Apple but Linux will start to take more of Windows's market share than Apple Mac OS will, just because of Mac OS is tried to hardware.

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Anonymous wrote:
Let China waste her money of antique submarine technology.

Don't knock the utility of diesel submarines. They are quieter than nuclear boats and nearly impossible to detect and track. And they are relatively inexpensive (read you can buy more for your buck). Combined with quality torpedoes, they are a deadly opponent and outstanding as coastal protection forces, which is the primary purpose of the PLAN.

Diesel submarine research drives development of lightweight, high capacity, fast charging batteries and pushes the state-of-the-art.

I used to hunt submarines for a living, found some, but never sunk one, it was only a "Cold War" at the time. These modern diesel electric subs are very quiet, they are not WWII type of boats. China does not, or not yet, need the range and endurance of a nuclear powered sub. All they need is to control water around the yet undeveloped oil fields in the South China Sea, explains China's interest in buying Unocal Oil. The Spratley Island oil fields are claimed by China, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philipines, sabers have already rattled over the claim. http://www.american.edu/projects/mandala/TED/ice/spratly.htm

We are getting way off topic here.

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Intruder wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:
Let China waste her money of antique submarine technology.

Don't knock the utility of diesel submarines. They are quieter than nuclear boats and nearly impossible to detect and track. And they are relatively inexpensive (read you can buy more for your buck). Combined with quality torpedoes, they are a deadly opponent and outstanding as coastal protection forces, which is the primary purpose of the PLAN.

Diesel submarine research drives development of lightweight, high capacity, fast charging batteries and pushes the state-of-the-art.

There is some irony is a nominally Communist state managing to be competitive because it's labour isn't unionized.

I would disagree with the assertion that China's growth will be limited because it lacks IPR. They are happy to deal with IPR on hardware patents, etc, on exported goods. They will be happy to enforce and protect IPR when and where it suits them. Protecting the interests of Western media and software doesn't, and while those firms might have major clout in Washington when it comes to changing copyright law, they are nothing compared to those benefitting from Chinese labour.

(And to be honest, it is much the same situation in India, hence the creation of the export zones where different laws apply. Internally there is about a 0% market for Western IP. Pakistan similarly refuses to protect the IP of Bollywood).

My predictions : A Chinese flavour of Linux will dominate the Asian market. Public sector and big business use of Linux will continue to drive that market, but the consumer market will lag behind Windows and MacO/S until someone is prepared to stick some money (as in millions) behind a consumer focused distribution. Dell could be doing that now, if he wanted his own Mac O/S, but I would wager MS would not give bulk discounts to any vendor offering machines that dual-boot into another O/S.

Windows marketshare will continue to fall each year, but this will be increasingly irrelevant to MS who will be making more money out of on-line gaming (X-Box live is ahead of the other console players), Office (which is now selling itself on it's features rather than format lock-in), .NET based servers, premium (non-OEM) Windows licences to purchasers of LinTel and MacTel boxes who want to dual-boot legacy Apps, and formats like WMA - which will win the war if Apple refuse to sub-licence. (Just look at Sony and the number of format wars they have lost with technically better products. Consumers do NOT like being tied to the same hardware vendor. Which is also what will stop OS/X expanding beyond a certain point, and why Windows 'won' for so long.

Longer term predictions :
Longhorn will be the last version of Windows as we know it. The next step has to be a complete bottom up re-design over a Unix based framework, and a Classic-->OS/X style upgrade path.

Jobs WILL license OS/X to other companies, but only once figures show that Apple has maximised it's marketshare - i.e. when the graphs show a declining curve, and surveys show a far lower number of people who say they are planning to switch. They will probably do something like offer OS/X without iLife, or restrict the maximum spec to prevent canibalisation of their hugely profitable PowerMacs.

Funny, I thought Americans were the "free market" advocates...so when you wanna buy someone else's oil companies, fine...but when you are about to sell one or even IBM's personal computer division, it's a matter of national security...

Get a grip and drop hypocrisy, guys; your arses have been kicked for a long time already...and China is no poor Iraq.

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Guest wrote:
Funny, I thought Americans were the "free market" advocates...so when you wanna buy someone else's oil companies, fine...but when you are about to sell one or even IBM's personal computer division, it's a matter of national security...

Get a grip and drop hypocrisy, guys; your arses have been kicked for a long time already...and China is no poor Iraq.

Obviously the voice of experience. But you Brit's have already been down this path, haven't you? Even so, your observations are on the mark.

For what it's worth, i do agree with the others who have said that China and India are upcoming powers to be reckoned with. I also think the US has already seen its heyday, but most of us "Americans" haven't a clue about that yet. If history teaches us anything, it's that NO society has remained top-dog forever. And once the handwriting of change is on the wall, its already too late to change your fate; social-economic inertia is too strong a force.

But like the British, we Americans won't know our sun has set until long after the black of night. Eventually, we'll figure it out, though. Good ol' American ingenuity, and all that, don't you know?