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Analysts Speculate on Next Week's Apple Announcement

TMO Reports - Analysts Speculate on Next Week's Apple Announcement

by , 1:35 PM EDT, October 5th, 2005

American Technology Research's Shaw Wu and Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster have weighed in with their thoughts on what Apple will likely introduce at its media event next Wednesday.

Mr. Wu, who currently has a "Hold" rating on Apple's stock, expects Apple to introduce not only the long-awaited video iPod but also new Power Mac G5s with dual-core PowerPC processors and PCI Express "iMac, Mac mini, eMac, PowerBook and iBook are also likely to see speed increases," he wrote.

As for the new iPod, Mr. Wu noted: "Competitors Samsung, Creative Technology, iRiver and Archos have shipped portable video devices for some time, albeit without much success. We think a key area to watch is the price points AAPL will set for these new devices. If AAPL can charge under $400 and preferably $299, we believe it will sell well. At higher price points, we believe it may be difficult to drive high volume.

"From our understanding," he added, "the first set of video content available from the iTunes store will be music videos and video podcasts. At this point, we do not anticipate full-length feature movies but would not be surprised to see some test movies in the future as the studios are still figuring out their future business model vs. today's movie theater and then DVD approach."

Finally, Mr. Wu wrote: "We are also picking up indications that AAPL could announce an optional external 'video out' module that attaches to an iPod video, meaning one can output the video to a TV or external screen."

Piper Jaffray Weighs In

In contrast, Mr. Munster expects Apple to introduce either the video iPod or an iPod with a smaller form factor but a capacity larger than 10GB. "If a video iPod is introduced," he wrote, "we would expect new iTunes video content would also be incorporated in the announcement."

He agreed with Mr. Wu that the price for a video iPod would need to be less than $400. "That said," he wrote, "a first step into portable video would open the door for future product innovations as the company continues to branch out into more of a central player in digital and mobile convergence."

Mr. Munster also addressed what he doesn't expect to see next week, which includes a new Mac, "other than incremental changes to speed and memory," and an Apple-branded cell phone. He doesn't expect Apple to introduce new Macs before the company starts shipping computers with Intel processors in the middle of next year. As for the fabled iPhone, "we would not expect such a product to be launched for 12 or more months," he wrote.

Mr. Munster continues to maintain an "Outperform" rating on Apple's stock, with a $60 target price.


If you are interested in Apple's stock, join our forum members in the Apple Finance Boards, a moderated forum for Apple Investors and people who are interested in Apple's financial dealings. For other stories regarding Apple's stock activity, visit our updated Apple Stock Watch Special Report.

Observer Comments

Show: Subjects Only | Full Comments
Close Name:Guest
Subject: More Speculation

CBS, CNN, and ABC/ESPN video podcasts are a given. A few Pixar/Disney movies for sale would be nice. Pixar selling movies this way would be seen as validation of Apple's DRM, since it was Jobs himself who warned other studios not to sell digitally until DRM was secure. Disney could really jumpstart this if they offered the upcoming movie Narnia for sale soon after its debut.

It would be great if Apple, as rumored, upgraded its Airport Express with analog and digital video out, H.264 decoder, bluetooth, and an iPod dock.

Lastly: Will there be a bluetooth remote control for the Airport Express/iPod combo?

Close Name:Guest
Subject: New video iPod

While I think that a new video iPod would be great, the capacity and transfer speed of the current disk drives in the iPod would make every choppy high-resolution movies. I do not think the technology for small disk drives would support large data transfers without the addition of either a better drive/faster transfer rate or different technology -- i.e non-disc memory. For this reason I think the video iPod is in the future rather than within the next few weeks.

Close Name:Bosco Posts: 1002 Joined: 03 Jun 2002
Subject: My guess: iPod Photo getting built-in camera

OK, my $20 is on the regular iPod (nee iPod Photo) getting a built-in camera like the Palm Zire 72, but with much better resolution. 3 or 4 megapixel at least. Camera lens on back side of iPod.

Close Name:Tik Tok Posts: 21 Joined: 05 Oct 2005
Subject: Speculate/Wish

I agree that a video iPod without a data transfer upgrade from current would not be pleasant. I do hope that the iPod will finally be able to upload digital photos from digital cameras directly. Finally, does anyone think the iPod needs an FM receiver to answer competition?

Close Name:aryugaetu Posts: 15 Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Subject: Invitation's Red Curtain Graphics

Red velvet curtains have had a very long history in Russian culture to announce the unveiling of a major royal Russian event. It is obvious that Apple is moving their headquarters to Moscow, and they plan on capturing the entire eastern European (and possibly Asian) computer markets.

Also note that red in most Asian cultures is equivalent to white in western cultures, meaning purity and newness. Such an announcement is obviously meant for a completely new introduction into these markets as the beauty and elegant fonts of all Asian countries are very well designed in the Mac OS. With China's and Russia's low labor costs, Apple will be able to take over the world's computer market will all new price cuts that no other US computer maker can possibly match, and still maintain the unprecedented ease of use and natural virus immunity of the Mac OS.



...or maybe a video iPod and movie download service.

Close Name:miranderm Posts: 30 Joined: 15 Dec 2001
Subject:

This has GOT to be good. Christmas coming and Apple need to be forthcoming with a product of substance. My track records of predictions has been on an average 2 years precocious and yes I'm still expecting the g5Emac. This "one more thing " I think will be 3-5 more things. The Paris expo being such a dud was not of design but now the time is CRITICAL!
#1 video iPod , #2 Video IPod phone, #3 EMac g5
#4 some kind of givaway lure -mac-mini monitor-stock option etc (unsure)
#5*****Mac/Wintel hybrid its .....all over microSoft.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: Doesn't Matter

microSoft is dead? Heh. I'm the CIO of a programming firm and I will NEVER have a Mac touch any horizontal surface in these offices. I do, however, use an old iMac as a doorstop.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: CIO, huh?

Who's the CEO, your mom?

Close Name:Guest
Subject: rediculous - physivic of FL

so what. I love apple, but only for mac os x. why can't other manufacturers muster the capital and design purity to make competing music players? aren't there as many talented individuals working outside apple as within? of the MP3 market, apple has 75%!!!? 'One more thing....' I can't guess, but to say that the video iPod ("iPod A/V", presumably, or just "iPod Video") paradigm is a very educated perspective, probably right — but suspense is a wash on me — I'm thinking something bigger. perhaps they've finally decided to market Mac OS X for Intel hardware. it would not have made sense to announce that without testing the waters first, or even at the same moment Mr. Jobs (aka iCon) demonstrated something most of us thought we wouldn't see until Bill Gates bought Apple - the Mac OS running on Intel hardware by decision of Apple itself. It would have been too big a bomb. But anyway, I think apple is cool, but I'm hoping the video ipod also reflects the increase in 1.8" drive capacity (80GB I read and 100 I expected).

Physivic, Orlando, FL

Close Name:Guest
Subject: iPod video?

Apple has said many, many times that an iPod with video capabilities is not a good idea, and that people don't want to be watching video on a tiny 3" screen. So I dont think Apple is making a video ipod

Close Name:Guest
Subject: ONE more thing....

Excuse me Mr. Wu, didn't you hear, is "ONE" more thing. Not three or more things!

Read my word; he will introduce the new generation iPod in mini size!!!! That's why they have to kill off the iPod mini first. He can not introduce the new iPod at that time because people will mistakenly is the new iPod mini replacement.

Do you think steve will introduce a new G5 Mac, mini mac or other stuff with just a mini upgrade? No way!!!!

Close Name:Guest
Subject: when is this?

What event are you guys talking about? and what is it?

Close Name:Guest
Subject: check ArsTechnica - physivic of FL

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20051004-5390.html

there's the Apple Special Event article on arstech

you have a point about watching video on a 3" screen but the reason I figure it'd be named "iPod A/V" is because it would output, like the current 'Photo' models do, to a TV with a standard analog composite dongle.

I think your mini-size ipod is a good idea, but capacity should increase. notice the lack of applause at the 2 and 4GB announcements Jobs made at the recent WWDC address. Many such addresses have garnered immediate applause at the price point announcements - but this time, not so. One needs no research articles to cite the capacity and performance increases driving the whole PC industry since the very beginning (i.e. 8-bit memory addressing, then 16, then 32 in mid-nineties, now 64 thanks to AMD pioneering it). All of this costs big bucks and has made the PC bigger over the years. I agree that smaller is better with respect to portable items, but the temporenaety of a complete music library in one's pocket is sure to require something other than just sound to drive sales. Plus, with the bigger distinction in size between the hard-drive based players and both the other iPod lines, there should, from a marketing perspective, be a line drawn in performance as well as capacity... since the price points are destined to muddy without technological advancement across the board.

The video machines make a lot of sense. But I still think OS X would be a miracle for us Intel-compatible hardware owners. I, for one, would wipe my machine instantly if I could simply pay apple a hundred bucks to reduce my stress level. I use a 64-bit AMD machine, but I'm using a 32-bit MS OS b/c the 64-bit XP version has not the third-party hardware support that XP SP2 has. Just a timing issue, sure, but Mac OS is currently very sophisticated.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: Finally can be free of cable and satellite

Would love to see ipod video. Instead of 50 channels of junk can get an hour or so of what is worth watching !

Close Name:Guest
Subject: DUH!

The Mac Mini has only just had an update. Anyone expecting it to get another only a few weeks later is insane.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: test

test

Close Name:Biff Posts: 1479 Joined: 08 Apr 2004
Subject:

Quote
Guest wrote:
microSoft is dead? Heh. I'm the CIO of a programming firm and I will NEVER have a Mac touch any horizontal surface in these offices. I do, however, use an old iMac as a doorstop.
HAHAHA!! Dude what is this 1999?! Too funny. Programming firm. What the hell is that? You sell programming? Oh wait that sounds about right. You and your buddy are consultants? WOW!

Close Name:Guest
Subject: Apple is Slick, I bet we already have video ipods...

Wouldn't it be nice if the nanos and the ipod colors already were designed to play video, and all apple is going to do is have a firmware download to add this feature to our preexisting ipods?! It would drive their music video sales because everyone would already have the devices to download to!

thats my .02

Close Name:Guest
Subject: iTunes Jukebox

Apple is producing an iTunes Jukebox. It's a standalone iTunes client for the home that's intended to integrate with existing stereo equipment. It includes an 120gb HD, wi-fi, and a built-in iPod dock all in a stylish, compact enclosure with a 10" color LCD display. And, here's the kicker... it runs on an Intel chip and retails for $399.

Close Name:Guest
Subject:

Quote
Biff wrote:
Quote
Guest wrote:
microSoft is dead? Heh. I'm the CIO of a programming firm and I will NEVER have a Mac touch any horizontal surface in these offices. I do, however, use an old iMac as a doorstop.
HAHAHA!! Dude what is this 1999?! Too funny. Programming firm. What the hell is that? You sell programming? Oh wait that sounds about right. You and your buddy are consultants? WOW!


What the hell do you program that you think Macs are junk? The fact that they are built on Unix makes it the most powerful tool right out of the box. I hope you're not stuck in a Windows world where all you know how to do is VBScript.

Close Name:Guest
Subject:

Quote
Guest wrote:
microSoft is dead? Heh. I'm the CIO of a programming firm and I will NEVER have a Mac touch any horizontal surface in these offices. I do, however, use an old iMac as a doorstop.


And you thinking is as outdated as the dinosaur operating system you embrace.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: Apple pioneered 64bit

Apple, not amd pioneered 64bit processors for the personal market.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: x86-64 - physivic of FL

apple?! APPLE!?!?! apple was the second-to-last to release an OS capable of utilizing 64-bit memory addresses. MS is most recent: april 30 of this year. but Doesn't linux count? anyway the 64-bit Opteron was released a couple months before the G5:

AMD:
http://www.amd.com/us-en/Corporate/VirtualPressRoom/0,,51_104_543_10218~70129,00.html

APPLE:
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2003/jun/23pmg5.html

Opteron is used in servers but also in high-end PCs - which now cost a lot less than the fastest G5s. I really wanted a G5 but bought all wintel stuff b/c for under 800 bucks I built a fast machine with reasonably strong specs. for that much Apple only sells the mini - which is only as upgradeable as a laptop.

Me likey steve jobs

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