Forrester Predicts Blu-ray Will Win DVD Wars [Updated]
Forrester Predicts Blu-ray Will Win DVD Wars [Updated]
by , 9:25 AM EDT, October 21st, 2005
Forrester Research is predicting that the Blu-ray format will win out over HD-DVD in the battle to become the next DVD format standard, according to a Reuters article. The Forrester report goes on to say that consumers will pay the price for this standards war with confusion and doubt, especially if HD-DVD supporters don't back down.
If both formats emerge in DVD players and computers in 2006, consumers will be left with the uncertainty of who the winner really is, and will most likely wait another two years before regaining confidence in the DVD player market.
Both technologies promise to bring higher capacity, better quality DVDs to consumers, but they are not compatible with each other.
Sony's Blu-ray technology lets a DVD hold at least 25GB per disc, and is backed in part by Apple, Dell, Hewlett Packard, Sony Pictures, MGM and Walt Disney. Toshiba's HD-DVD, by comparison, holds less data at 15GB per disc. It has the backing of Hollywood studios including Universal Studios, Warner Bros., and Paramount Pictures. Technology heavyweights Microsoft and Intel also support Toshiba's technology in part because it's much cheaper to transition current disc production facilities to support HD-DVD than it is to support Blu-ray.
The film studios are now the key to breaking the stalemate, and Paramount made the first move by announcing that it will release movies in both formats. Warner Bros. followed suit on Friday announcing that it, too, will sell DVDs in both formats, leaving Universal Studios as the only Hollywood studio outside of the Blue-ray camp.
Apple's decision to support Blu-ray places it in what looks to be the winning camp. Even if there is a long and bloody battle on the consumer playing field, Apple will still fair well because of its position as a media delivery power house.
If consumers take a "wait and see" attitude towards the new DVD formats, they will focus instead on video on demand, downloadable video, and viewing programs on the Internet. Apple's iTunes Music Store is ready to provide that content, and may prove enticing to studios if they see weak DVD sales.
There is still a slim chance that a unified DVD format can be agreed upon, but Apple stands to be a winner regardless of the outcome.
[Update: This story has been updated with additional information.]
Observer Comments
I love how analysts get paid for this. Blu-ray already had MGM, Sony and Disney. Then right after Paramount and WB announce support, they "predict" that blu-ray will win. Thanks guys! We couldn't have figured that one out without your "expert" analysis!
One of the other nice things about blu-ray is that alot of people will spell it "blue-ray" and that will piss off lame people that get annoyed at spelling and grammer errors. Presant company excepted of coarse.
Do you really think readers want a grammar lesson? Do you really think the author publically wants to be told he or she made a grammar error? I do not. If you feel compelled to make yourself appear smart, comment to the author directly. Otherwise, your just being rude. Grammar lessons are completely off topic.
PS:
I did not proof read this post, so have fun finding the errors.
In fact Apple currently has more support for HD-DVD in its professional software than it does for Blu-Ray. DVD-SP supports HD-DVD authoring (albeit to standard DVDs, as that's all that's currently available). I don't think Apple really gives a hoot either way to be honest. I'm betting they'll wait and see how things pan out, and probably support both until that happens.
And from my point of view it's way too early to call a winner yet. In fact at the moment I'd say HD-DVD is ahead thanks to M$'s support. When M$ ships drivers for HD-DVD drives and not for Blu-Ray, and when zillions of Windows users can copy their HD movies to their hard drives and their Media Center PCs, and they can't with Blu-Ray... Think about it. But honestly, the thing that will kill them both if the backers don't wake up and smell the coffee burning is the requirement to have HDCP from end to end. How many people are going to get a new graphics card and monitor just so they can watch HD movies on their PC in HD resolution? Yeah exactly. When, oh when will the studios realize that draconian copy protection is pointless and even harmful? Probably about the same time Congress wakes up and realizes that software patents are a bad idea.
Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:30 am Subject: Holographic Storage will Obsolete Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD
Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:30 am Subject: Holographic Storage will Obsolete Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD
Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:30 am Subject: Holographic Storage will Obsolete Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD
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