Analysts: nano Sales Slowing Near-Term, But Look to New Video iPod
TMO Reports - Analysts: nano Sales Slowing Near-Term, But Look to New Video iPod
by , 12:40 PM EST, March 9th, 2006
Wedbush Morgan analysts Craig Berger and James Schneider on Thursday issued a PortalPlayer research report in which they said that NAND flash consumption has slowed, portending a slower rate of iPod nano shipments that will hurt the audio processor maker in the short-term. "Based on other checks," they wrote, "we expect unit shipments will decline by 10-15% QtoQ in Q2, generally worse than investors anticipate."
However, looking ahead to the second half of this year, the analysts saw an investment opportunity "ahead of a likely sharp ramp in demand and orders." They cited "independent confirmation from a reliable industry source" that Apple will likely launch a redesigned video iPod "this spring, possibly as early as its 30th anniversary on April 1."
They see such a device "layered in at the top of Apple's existing iPod product portfolio, likely offering a larger size LCD screen, a bigger battery, and high storage capacity to accommodate full-length video, at a retail price point of US$400-$500. We note that Apple's existing device is called the iPod (not the Video iPod), and think Apple retains this device for customers seeking a music playback device, with the Video iPod targeted at video enthusiasts."
Mr. Berger and Mr. Schneider expect Apple will use PortalPlayer's audio decoding processor in the new device, "given Apple's design schedule constraints, PortalPlayer's software 'stickiness,' likely Video iPod device processing requirements, and the execution risk Apple faces should it change processor suppliers."
However, they are still cutting their 2006 and 2007 EPS estimates for PortalPlayer, in light of "softer iPod demand overall, combined with some existing iPod cannibalization, [that] will more than fully offset the incremental demand created by this new Video iPod."
Observer Comments
It's no surprise that iPod sales drop off in the quarter after the Christmas season and there is no reason to believe that the nano will be any different. The new 1 Gb model might boost sales a bit, but the strongest iPod sales will always be after a new, major model is introduced and the holiday shopping season.
The true Video iPod would be one of those releases that would generate rapid, significant demand when introduced and probably be hard to find during the Christmas season buying.
it's true - the new ipod video device is actually the exact same samsung model of the new microsoft origami UMPC. it will just have an Apple logo on it, instead of the Samsung lable.
consternation is reigning in redmond over this fiasco.
the new ipod will not use windows for tablet software, and thusly, will have an eight hour battery life, due to using better batteries and more intelligent software. prices are very different, with the redmond device going for 8 big ones and the ipod for 5.
samsung scored a real coup here, selling the same device to both microsoft and apple without either of them knowing about it.
you heard it here first.
april first will really be april first this year.
regards,
roger
"Sorry. No refunds."
Apple had revenue of $5.75B in Q1 and projected revenue of $4.3B for Q2. That's a 25% drop in revenue QtoQ. Apple said they expected both Mac and iPod revenue to drop QtoQ, but that even $4.3B would be the best Q2 ever.
These guys see a 10-to-15% QtoQdrop in nano sales. Since the nano is the largest portion of iPod sales (by units), I'd say that's good news, not bad.
Also, a few analysts said right after the Apple projection that the time to buy back into Apple would be at the end of Q2 (end of March) if you could take some risk of a Q2 disaster, or after the Q2 financial results were announced (mid-April) if you were willing to forgo some upside (assuming Q2 was not a disaster). So nothing new in their report since they didn't give any clue as to whether Q2 was going to be a disaster (i.e., revenue under $4.2B)
Thu Mar 09, 2006 11:54 pm Subject: April Fools Day is going to be big this year
QuoteGuest wrote:
it's true - the new ipod video device is actually the exact same samsung model of the new microsoft origami UMPC. it will just have an Apple logo on it, instead of the Samsung lable.
consternation is reigning in redmond over this fiasco.
the new ipod will not use windows for tablet software, and thusly, will have an eight hour battery life, due to using better batteries and more intelligent software. prices are very different, with the redmond device going for 8 big ones and the ipod for 5.
samsung scored a real coup here, selling the same device to both microsoft and apple without either of them knowing about it.
you heard it here first.
april first will really be april first this year.
LOL! Ha ha! Now that would be funny.
Oh well, i can see April Fool’s Day will be a major event this year; folks are already starting to practice their delivery. I can’t wait.
QuoteGuest wrote:
it's true - the new ipod video device is actually the exact same samsung model of the new microsoft origami UMPC. it will just have an Apple logo on it, instead of the Samsung lable.
consternation is reigning in redmond over this fiasco.
the new ipod will not use windows for tablet software, and thusly, will have an eight hour battery life, due to using better batteries and more intelligent software. prices are very different, with the redmond device going for 8 big ones and the ipod for 5.
samsung scored a real coup here, selling the same device to both microsoft and apple without either of them knowing about it.
Rubbish.
The Video iPod is will posess a demonstrably iPod-esque appearance, and will almost certainly have the same form factor as the current larger iPods, with a 4" widescreen.
The Samsung UMPC is much larger, with a 7" screen, and will Windows XP capabilities. It has capabilities far beyond those needed by a humble portable video player, and is also far too large to be a useful iPod.
It's also far too ugly to be sold by Apple:
http://www.microsoft.com/windowsxp/umpc/hardware.mspx
I can't see the first UMPCs being much of a success, due to their size & weight - I'd rather carry a couple of pounds of Sony Vaio or iBook around with me, and benefit from the fully functional keyboard they offer.
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