I think people badly underestimate MS and the Zune.

The 1G Zune is far from competitive with the iPod, but as a first start it's not at all a bad product. If they adjust course on some of their stupider decisions (like the deeply crippled WiFi song "sharing"), work on slimming the thing down, release a nano-class model, create as many connections between Zune, 360s, and Vista as possible, and continue to pour millions and millions into the marketing campaign, it could easily become the #2 mp3 player. It won't come close to knocking off the iPod, but it can be a solid #2.

Point is, the Zune is not a diversionary tactic of any kind. It's an attempt at MS to ape the iPod-iTunes-iTS model pioneered by Apple... only 5 years too late. MS has little choice; Play for Sure is a bust, and Apple at the moment is flat-out winning the new standards war taking place in consumer media.

I don't see how a crappy portable music player helps the XBox. That makes no sense. But then again I have no idea what the basis for Mr. Cringely's opinion is. I guess that is the kind of detail one doesn't normally mention in a report such as this.

How does Apple threaten the XBox at all? Even when they get into my living room via an iTV, its not like my 360 is going anywhere. Heck no!

Guest, by the time M$ gets an improved Zune model out, Apple will be busy revolutionizing the cell phone industry. Plus there's the whole "iPod ecosystem" thing with tons of available accessories, car integration, airline integration, etc. It's going to be alot longer than you think before M$ can catch up.

Well, if you knew anything about the Zune ('s okay, not many people around these parts do) then you'd know it interfaces with the Xbox 360. It's not really super special in that sense (almost any USB device will). It can be considered a 360 accessory, launched (at least in my eyes) strategically around the release of the Wii and PS3.

And yeah, subliminally Microsoft's probably trying to push the 360 into the public eye, though the Zune isn't really doing much of anything in that respect. It's not so much a diversion as an attempt to get it in the spotlight and an attempt to integrate their systems using MS points (giving "Microsoft Money" a whole new meaning). Halo 3 anyone?

I think it's another long line of people thinking - man they were smart once - how can they be so dumb now - they must be doing some double secret negative thing to throw us off the track except the reality is they're like the hotshot in college but in the real world, life is much harsher. Just like the things that make some people a huge success in college but not after, same with a world driven by enterprise and one driven by consumers. Just think of their 'we'll get it right later.' works okay with corporations because no one wants to start training again from scratch but consumers - if you buy a lawnmower that you hate, will you buy the same brand again? Not likely, even if you have to relearn to use a new mower, you'll buy another brand - thar's why MS can't really sell anything to consumers from talking barney's to watches to MSN. Hell, people won't even use MSN search and it's ONE FREE MOUSE click away ... think about that. As for their only "success" if you think spending $400 to sell each unit is a success ... what is an Xbox really? A Pc that has no driver or virus issues and costs about 10% the price of a comparable gaming PC - so really, their only success eats into the base of people buying gaming Pc's ... Ms will do fine for the next 10 years selling an OS for wedding registry kiosk, telemarketers and cash registers but their time is done in leading anything.

I always enjoy Mr. Cringley's provocative opinions but I don't always agree. In this case, I think it helps to remember the truism that "nobody's incompetent at everything", reverse it, and apply it to Microsoft. In other words, I think Mr. Cringley is giving M$ more credit than they deserve. I'm willing to believe they're putting a bigger bet on the XBox than the Zune, but still, it's not really plausible that they were aiming at losing from day one when they created the Zune. As they've proven time and time again, they really do like to win and they really are tone-deaf when it comes to cultural issues. I think it can be difficult to believe that such a mighty giant can be so silly and irrelevant in this music, consumer electronics arena, but we should trust our eyes: Microsoft really is silly and irrelevant as far as MP3 players go.

Remember in 1985, Apple had a ten year head start on GUIs. Ten years later, Microsoft had caught up, but only because Apple had done them the favor of standing still for a decade. So it's understandable that M$ believes that with enough persistence it can catch up this time too. I myself don't believe that history will repeat since Steve Jobs has learned his lessons and Apple is not standing still.

Mr. Cringley asserts that "Apple has to respond to the Zune", but he doesn't provide any proof. I don't think Apple does have to respond. In this field, I think Apple sees M$ for what they are, irrelevant and silly and easy to ignore.

But what about Microsoft's Plays For Sure hardware partners? Are these companies going to respond to the Zune? What's the correct response to this betrayal? I myself don't know, but it sure makes M$ look silly, irrelevant and desperate too!

Chris Jones

Quote

Guest wrote:
Apple at the moment is flat-out winning the new standards war taking place in consumer media.

In my opinion, it is not xbox that MSFT is trying to protect but its role in the battle for the living rooms in people's homes. If Apple wins, media is encoded for quicktime and not windows media and MSFT loses its hold on this market and possibly many others. In my mind, it is that simple and that important to MSFT. The stakes are much bigger than xbox.

Neal

If M$ sells the box the media is viewed with, how upset could they be if it's quicktime?

Quote

Guest wrote:
If M$ sells the box the media is viewed with, how upset could they be if it's quicktime?

MS is a software company. Apple is a hardware company. While Apple doesn't mind if a new revenue stream is generated from all that QuickTime content out there, MS shudders at the thought of losing Windows Media Format market share for content delivery. With the possible exception of keyboards and mice, MS hardware is losing money. X-box or Zune; they cost more to make than they sell at retail. They live or die by the volume of their licenses (Windows, Office, WM, Win Mobile, games...). On the other hand, iPods cost about $80 to make (the full-size video ones). Macs are very similar (if not as drastic) story, with retail around 60% on top of parts price. Apple essentially gives its software away (more-or-less; although they've done quite well with FCP), focusing on manufacturing and selling beautifully designed boxes. Fundamental difference in philosophies will never make MS a competitive hardware product.

Not to mention the bureaucracy that has infected MS at all levels of product development (layered management structure, hazy decision-making process, everyone covering their own a$$...). With or witout Zunes in the market, Apple (with SJ heading it) will continue to innovate, because SJ will keep pushing for innovation. They don't need a challenger in the market in order to be motivated. SJ is doing a fine job already.

I say it is not a decoy but the Zune is a total failure. It was supposed to compete with the iPod head on and instead it flopped big time. Now the excuses start coming out like this one. It was a decoy, we expected the sales numbers that we got. Yea right, what a bunch of poppy cock. Face it, the Zune was a total failure and did not meet expectations period. Adding an FM radio does nothing for an MP3 player. Adding wireless does nothing either when it is totally locked down and so limited in range and what it can do. The software crashed in typical Microsoft fashion and they had no movies available for sale even though it was supposed to be able to play them.

Quote

jbelkin wrote:
I think it's another long line of people thinking - man they were smart once - how can they be so dumb now - they must be doing some double secret negative thing to throw us off the track except the reality is they're like the hotshot in college but in the real world, life is much harsher. Just like the things that make some people a huge success in college but not after, same with a world driven by enterprise and one driven by consumers. Just think of their 'we'll get it right later.' works okay with corporations because no one wants to start training again from scratch but consumers - if you buy a lawnmower that you hate, will you buy the same brand again? Not likely, even if you have to relearn to use a new mower, you'll buy another brand - thar's why MS can't really sell anything to consumers from talking barney's to watches to MSN. Hell, people won't even use MSN search and it's ONE FREE MOUSE click away ... think about that. As for their only "success" if you think spending $400 to sell each unit is a success ... what is an Xbox really? A Pc that has no driver or virus issues and costs about 10% the price of a comparable gaming PC - so really, their only success eats into the base of people buying gaming Pc's ... Ms will do fine for the next 10 years selling an OS for wedding registry kiosk, telemarketers and cash registers but their time is done in leading anything.

Quote

vasic wrote:
MS is a software company. Apple is a hardware company.

This sounds good (or at least amusing) in theory, but nobody, including Cringely, has said HOW the Zune is supposed to make any material effect as a "diversion".

Quote

Biff wrote:
Plus there's the whole "iPod ecosystem" thing with tons of available accessories, car integration, airline integration, etc. It's going to be alot longer than you think before M$ can catch up.