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The Biggest Competitor to Vista: Windows XP

by , 3:15 PM EST, January 25th, 2007

Microsoft's own Windows XP will be the biggest competitor to Vista and be the main factor in Vista's slow growth according to Gartner. The Gartner report was cited at the Sydney Morning Herald on Tuesday.

The Gartner report said that Vista would only end up on about 12 percent of PCs found in the home this year. It isn't expected to surpass XP until 2009.

Meanwhile, some analysts have predicted that Vista's emulation of Mac OS X's look-and-feel would open the door to Linux. However, Gartner's figures contradict this view and predicted that Linux's share would remain constant at around 4.1 per cent until at least 2010.

Gartner expects Apple's market share to remain at just under 3 percent.

In a related analysis at InfoWorld, the difficult and tedious process of migrating to Windows in the Enterprise was detailed. Businesses face the prospect of rolling out Microsoft Exchange Server 2007, Microsoft Office 2007 and Vista all the at the same time. Even with Microsoft's deployment tools, the process will take years.

The InfoWorld story provided insight: "IT managers already en route to Vista land are finding that their users simply don’t want Vista. What they’re really after are Office 2007 and Exchange 2007 — business-critical apps they perceive as essential to getting their work done."

These two studies by Gartner and InfoWorld reiterate the idea that while Vista adoption will be slow, and driven by the pace of business adoption, the entrenched Windows XP users, by and large, will be switching to Vista eventually and that Moc OS X and Linux will remain far behind.

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Observer Comments

Show: Subjects Only | Full Comments
Close Name:davebarnes Posts: 118 Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Subject: Grammar Nazi

"The Gartner Group said that Vista would only end up on about 12 percent of PCs found in the home this year. It isn't expected to surpass Vista until 2009."

should be "...surpass XP until 2009."

Close Name:Biff Posts: 1479 Joined: 08 Apr 2004
Subject:

People aren't going to be buying XP instead of Vista. People just aren't going to be rushing to upgrade to Vista because its not that compelling. XP isn't competition. Everyone has XP already, its not stealing away from Vista. But I suppose saying that isn't as cute and "clever" as saying XP is Vista's biggest competitor. Who cares about accuracy.

View Name:Guest
Subject:
View Name:Guest
Subject: Actually I think they will buy XP
View Name:Guest
Subject:
View Name:Guest
Subject: Is that supposed to be 'Mac OS'?
View Name:Guest
Subject: Moc OS?
View Name:Guest
Subject: XPee and Vis-duh
View Name:Guest
Subject: analysts
View Name:Guest
Subject: People will still buy XP
View Name:Guest
Subject: wha'ts with all the hate?
Close Name:LaurieF -   TMO Forum Mod Posts: 3498 Joined: 15 Jun 2001
Subject:

Yeah - it's what's made you so literate, eh? If only your parents had spent more money on your education instead of your Vista box, we might be able to easily read what you had written…

Realistically, there are millions upon millions of XP boxes out there, a large number of which will not run Vista well, if at all. Come the time when their owners get a new box, they will have a choice of getting one with Linux on it, possibly, or they'll by a Mac with OS X. But most likely they'll get one with Vista. A percentage of those will say, "Oh, I'll stick with what I like, thank you." and keep XP.

But in time they'll tend to move to Vista. But it won't happen overnight. If they see the light and come over to our side, that's fine. Good on them. We like them.

But if they don't, it won't make much difference to Apple. Which monopoly do you prefer?

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