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The Vista Migration Is Not an Opportunity for Apple

by , 2:05 PM EST, January 30th, 2007

A Gartner analyst maintains that Apple shouldn't consider the Microsoft Vista rollout an opportunity, but rather a diversion from Apple's strengths. The Gartner analysis was presented at the IT-Enquirer on Tuesday.

Because Vista is a distraction for IT professionals who would rather go about their business rather than spend day and night testing and certifying Vista for their organization, Gartner analyst Michael Silver has proposed that this is the wrong time for Apple to push Leopard as an alternative. The reason is that, given that Windows is so dominant in business and given that businesses have made the commitment to engage in the migration, Apple's Leopard message would fall largely on highly stressed and deaf ears.

"The less-risky, but slower growth, strategy for Macintosh is for Apple to continue focusing on its chosen markets (that is, consumers and certain enterprise niches) and let it bleed into mainstream commercial computing virally," Mr. Silver stated. "Enterprise users will increasingly select the compute tools they will employ to perform their work tasks ... and Apple will benefit from this evolution. A bolder frontal attack on the enterprise PC market ... to more rapidly build share involves significantly higher risk,” the analyst concluded.

The slower growth course means that the sales of Apple Macintosh hardware will continue to rise, as it has in the recent past, but not at the rate some might hope for.

This is a significant message. While Apple loyalists believe that Apple should pit its advanced Leopard OS directly against the Vista migration, that viewpoint doesn't take into account the view of investors who see this kind of uphill battle a diversion from Apple's surging strengths in entertainment. Apple's recent name change suggests that Apple agrees.

In summary, Mr. Silver believes that in the near term, Apple should focus on its own strengths, blend the Mac OS X technologies into home entertainment, maintain its high profit margins and market cap, and generally steer clear of directly confronting businesses who are firmly committed to the Vista upgrade process over the next 18 months.

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Observer Comments

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View Name:Guest
Subject: Slow and steady
Close Name:jbruni Posts: 78 Joined: 14 Jul 2006
Subject: Gartner

I would take advice from Gartner with a heavy dose of salt. Gartner recommended outsourcing and now companies are finding out what a disaster that was. Gartner recommended virtualization as a means of saving money in the data center and companies are finding out that hardware costs were not as big factor as Gartner led them to believe.

Close Name:deasys Posts: 259 Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Subject:

"There, there Apple: be a good little boy and stay in your own sandbox.

"Don't scare people with your silly ideas."

Close Name:davebarnes Posts: 118 Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Subject: Down deep Gartner likes Macs

Gartner was almost a 100% Mac company in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

View Name:Guest
Subject:
View Name:Guest
Subject: And....
Close Name:reboylin Posts: 6 Joined: 06 Dec 2001
Subject: Vista not a OS X Opportunity

This appears to be Jobs' plan as well. Of course he could surprise us; but Leopard may have some features that get attention without any of Apple's marketing. It appears that Apple really doesn't want to expand in the area of corporate support and marketing. that may just counterweight the creative engineering that makes Apple different. We don't want another Microsoft on our hands!

Close Name:Tiger Posts: 937 Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Subject: saw Gates on TV today

Commentator asked him point blank if this wasn't just a little TOO reminiscent of Mac OS X. His response was priceless.

"We're way ahead. Especially with Media Center and the remote."

He then went on to show all the components and hardware that they have partnered with. It was a veritable "system" bigger than my stereo.

I immediately thought of AppleTV and it's one little box.

Yeah. They're way ahead alright.

Close Name:JulesLt Posts: 136 Joined: 06 Jul 2005
Subject: And what are Apple doing . . .

. . . if you look at their strategy, that is pretty much exactly what they're doing. The TV ads imply it's a consumer machine, almost an 'anti-work' machine - when in fact it's a perfectly capable platform for business tasks.

There's also the fact that in the enterprise Apple would be going up against Novell, IBM, Oracle and Red Hat, who are all pushing Linux alternatives (that will let companies re-use existing hardware). Java and .NET are also the two main enterprise development platforms.

Where you can see Apple making an effort is in targeting small development shops - the Teams app they're building, Ruby On Rails support in Leopard Server, etc - basically the kind of companies that will be delivering web based solutions, maybe using a lot of Adobe/Macromedia tools too, where it doesn't matter what tools they use.

I think they're right on the viral thing though - I want our sales and marketing team to be using Keynote right now.

Close Name:horvatic Posts: 99 Joined: 27 Jun 2003
Subject: Not necessarily committed to Vista

"who are firmly committed to the Vista upgrade process over the next 18 months".

Not necessarily committed. Look at the polls and most businesses are NOT going to Vista for a long time. To many outstanding issues. No virus protection, video and sound drivers, and compatable software to name a few.
Apple won't push now until Leopard comes out and makes Vista look as old as it really is. 5 years in the past.

View Name:Guest
Subject: Wrong, wrong, wrong.
View Name:Guest
Subject:
Close Name:Terrin Posts: 357 Joined: 29 Jan 2006
Subject:

Truth is businesses do not like untested OSes. Accordingly, businesses likely will frown on both Vista and Leopard at least in the short term.

Close Name:acdc1174 Posts: 677 Joined: 16 Apr 2004
Subject: Confusion of terminology.

There is, I think, a large difference between a "commitment to the migration" and having Vista preloaded on all the new machines businesses will be purchasing. Commitment is not the same thing as a lack of options. Besides, nothing is stopping these businesses from nuking Vista and reinstalling an existing site license of XP (or 2000 for that matter, MANY businesses are still on 2000) until all the Vista kinks are worked out. But hey, it's good spin.

View Name:Guest
Subject: Saw Bill Gates on TV today
View Name:Guest
Subject: Doesn't factor Vista HW Requirements
Close Name:rwahrens Posts: 42 Joined: 19 Jul 2006
Subject:

Quote
Guest wrote:
[quote="Tiger"]Commentator asked him point blank if this wasn't just a little TOO reminiscent of Mac OS X. His response was priceless.

"We're way ahead. Especially with Media Center and the remote."

He then went on to show all the components and hardware that they have partnered with. It was a veritable "system" bigger than my stereo.


And Steve Jobs is accused of having a "reality distortion field" ??!


Yes, Gates has one, too. Except his is turned to reverse! (Distorts HIS reality, not the audience!)

Close Name:hangtown Posts: 109 Joined: 03 Dec 2005
Subject:

Quote
jbruni wrote:
Gartner recommended virtualization as a means of saving money in the data center and companies are finding out that hardware costs were not as big factor as Gartner led them to believe.


Virtualization in the data center has nothing to do with OS X, but rather allowing single powerful servers to run multiple copies of something like Windows 2003 Server, etc. I don't see companies using virtualization to let their employees use macs and run windows when needed. I know where I work this will never ever even be considered, let alone implemented.

Close Name:hangtown Posts: 109 Joined: 03 Dec 2005
Subject:

Quote
Guest wrote:
The Gartner analysis doesn't make much sense. A lot of existing corporate PCs simply won't run Vista effectively. Many companies need to upgrade their hardware before updating their software. This is the perfect opportunity for Apple to really push the Mac as the best hardware to run Vista and OS X. No other vendor can offer that kind of flexibility.


I'm not sure what everyone's background is here, but does anyone else work in fortune 500 companies? They don't care about the flexibility to run OS X, they are never going to do it as far as they are concerned.

I too would love to quit having to use windows of any variety at work, but it's just not going to happen in at least the next 10 years, probably longer, actually probably never. They could possible move to macs running windows natively (not using virtualization) but there's no reason for them to not get the slightly cheaper PC's they are using already.

I see why everyone here including myself would like it, but I honestly see no reason for companies entrenched in windows running custom windows apps to do anything besides eventually move to Vista. They are testing it where I work with that end in mind now.

Close Name:algr Posts: 282 Joined: 07 Aug 2003
Subject:

Quote
to more rapidly build share involves significantly higher risk


Higher risk of what? If companies really feel they have no choice but to buy new hardware and a new OS, what is so risky about encouraging them to shop around before buying?

View Name:Guest
Subject: Not an accurate statement
Close Name:zewazir Posts: 374 Joined: 03 Dec 2002
Subject:

It would seem to me that Apple is already in the plan outlined. Apple has been marketing themselves as a consumer electronics company since the first iPod. With the advent of the Intel Macs, with their dual boot capability, the push into the cconsumer market is stronger than ever. Dual boot is not aimed at businesses, but rather the home user, who is being told they can have all the ultra-coolness of Apples iLife, the intergrated ease of running MP3 player, photo albums, home movie editing, and even music composition, and NOW it can even be fully compatible with any work you have to bring home from the office!! All on ONE machine!

I also believe this is going to eventually start to affect business decisions. More and more we see people working primarily from their homes or using their personal computers instead of the office computers. This trend has increased dramatically as laptops are now available that seriously compete with desktops in ability.

For a long time now, the business place has been a strong if not primary factor in the decision of which home computer to purchase. I believe in the coming years we will start to see this trend reverse itself, as the home workers start to demand their business IT dept. support what they want to use at home. With Macs starting to make a significant infiltration into the home computing market, this trend will start to put pressure on businesses to support Macintosh, which in turn will increase awareness (not to mention capability and understanding) of Macs and OS X in the IT depts.; all without Apple needing to do anything other than market themselves as the cool consumer electronics company.

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