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Dvorak: Time to Sell Apple Stock (Maybe)

by , 5:25 PM EDT, June 7th, 2007

John Dvorak, who wrote for MarketWatch on Thursday, invoked the age old investor's maxim: sell on good news and buy on the bad. In this case, since no company can have as much good news as Apple, he advised to sell short.

Mr. Dvorak's reasoning went as follows:

  • Sell when other people are buying.
  • A report of iPhone keyboard problems from an undisclosed source. Mr. Dvorak, however, is "not convinced."
  • Apple bought into the gropupthink that people want to surf the Web on a handheld device, and he doubts that premise.
  • The functionality of the iPhone will be duplicated by competitors, and Apple "will be trading water."

Hedging even his own advice, Mr. Dvorak advised that selling short can wait. Perhaps until the device actually ships. Even so, he said the time will come.

Recently, Bloomberg News polled Apple analysts regarding Apple stock.. Twenty-three of them said "buy" while only four said "hold." None were advising "sell."

Stocks can be risky, and no one knows what tomorrow's headlines will bring. However, right now, Mr. Dvorak seems to be a lone voice.


If you are interested in Apple's stock, join our forum members in the Apple Finance Boards, a moderated forum for Apple Investors and people who are interested in Apple's financial dealings. For other stories regarding Apple's stock activity, visit our updated Apple Stock Watch Special Report.

Observer Comments

Show: Subjects Only | Full Comments
Close Name:Sir Harry Flashman Posts: 792 Joined: 08 Feb 2007
Subject: Not yet

"Mr. Dvorak seems to be a lone voice" no news there

Even if there are some problems with the iPhone, Leopard is coming in a few months and that may help keep the stock up.

Disclaimer: At current prices I own a fully loaded Pro Mac (with big dual displays) worth of Apple stock. I wish that I had invested more way back when, coulda, shoulda, woulda.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: I certainly wouldn't take his advice

I certainly would not take his advice. Unless of course you want to lose money. Just because he hates Apple doesn't mean Apple can't make a good product. And those that try to copy the iPhone will be missing a very big key ingredient. OSX

Close Name:farmerbob Posts: 23 Joined: 11 Apr 2003
Subject: As a joke . . . .

I bought my Niece and Nephew, whose Father is a Windows IT person for a large corporation, to creep him out, $200 each of Apple stock at $10 per share. So . . . now they have about $2600 of creepiness each.

We don't talk about it.

Close Name:Guest
Subject:

Quote
farmerbob wrote:
I bought my Niece and Nephew, whose Father is a Windows IT person for a large corporation, to creep him out, $200 each of Apple stock at $10 per share. So . . . now they have about $2600 of creepiness each.

We don't talk about it.


If you bought at $10/share, that was prior to the last split, so they each have about $5000.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: Dvorak is close on this I think

I see the stock leveling near the 28th and possibly taking a dive with the first quarter sales for the iPhone. It might be hard to sell at this point shortly before the release as there is quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding how well it will be received. I figure Apple will cut the price at some point later on and then the stock will climb again. I expect that eventually it will climb to 170 and split as well maybe around 140's. A great stock for the long haul, Apple got nowhere else to go but up once they stabilize the iPhone introduction and meet their sales projections.

Close Name:Tiger Posts: 1018 Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Subject: iPhone is going to rule, and here's why...

People have been griping and moaning about Apple going with the EDGE technology instead of 3G.

As of today, I'm sure that will stop. 3G is dead in the water in the US for now, and at least tied up in the courts for years.

http://news.com.com/Import+ban+on+3G+handsets+could+hurt+industry/2100-1036_3-6189555.html?tag=nefd.lede

Close Name:Guest
Subject:

Quote
Tiger wrote:
People have been griping and moaning about Apple going with the EDGE technology instead of 3G.

As of today, I'm sure that will stop. 3G is dead in the water in the US for now, and at least tied up in the courts for years.

http://news.com.com/Import+ban+on+3G+handsets+could+hurt+industry/2100-1036_3-6189555.html?tag=nefd.lede


You've misread that article. 3G networks are not "dead in the water" as you say. This is an import ban on a specific Qualcomm chip because it infringes on the rights of Broadcom. There are numerous ways in which this will not make 3G networks disappear (which simply won't happen). Bush could veto the order (not likely, but a possibility). Qualcomm would win on appeal, the order doesn't go into effect for 60 days and it's likely that if an appeal is in process a stay will be granted. I don't know the likelihood that Qualcomm would win on appeal, but if you read the whole article you'd see it's likely that another outcome will happen during the appeals process. That is Broadcom and Qualcomm will reach a settlement which aleviates the infringement of the Qualcomm chip on Broadcom's patent. I would suspect that the settlement is the most likely outcome of all of this, but failing all of that, manufacturers will end up using Broadcom's technology instead of Qualcomm. None of these outcomes are 3G being gone.

Close Name:bluebox Posts: 461 Joined: 25 Jul 2006
Subject: I agree only on this point

I think Dvorak is a villiage idiot, an Apple "permabear" to be sure. In his worldview, saying negative things about a company and its products that carry a legion of users/fans on its back is a sure-fire way to bring eyeballs to his blog/mag, thereby generating the ad dollars he needs to perpetuate his brand of lunacy.

As a near-to-long term investor (including AAPL), have to concede Dvorak's notion of selling into the iPhone launch event. (He's not alone; Jim Cramer on CNBC has been saying this for the past week, and I have to agree. It's the way the Street works, and is definitely the way AAPL trades.)

I've doubled my money since legging in last July. Big money (hedge/mutual funds) are ready to take profits from the past two months run-up. AAPL is ahead of itself, to be sure. It will sell off in/by July, at which point it will be time to leg back in ahead of the next quarter (back-to-school).

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