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NYT: Microsoft Victim of the "Single-Era Conjecture"

NYT: Microsoft Victim of the "Single-Era Conjecture"

by , 1:35 PM EDT, May 19th, 2008

The worlds of science and technology have many famous conjectures, hypotheses and laws: Fermat's Last Theorem, the Riemann Hypothesis and Moore's Law. Microsoft is struggling to confront what Randall Stross, writing for the New York Times, called the Single-Era Conjecture on Sunday. Namely, it's impossible for a company in the computer business to stay on top in two successive technological eras.

"Good luck to Steven A. Ballmer, the company’s chief executive since 2000, as he tries to sustain in the Internet era what his company had attained in the personal computing era," Mr. Stross, a business professor at San Jose State, wrote. "Empirical evidence, however, suggests that he won’t succeed. Not because of personal failings, but because Mother Nature simply won’t permit it."

A company cannot buy or merge its way out of the Single-Era conjecture. As far back as 1997, Clayton Christensen, a Harvard Business School professor noted that even well-managed tech companies try to prepare for the nest wave, but still lose market leadership.

It's not that Microsoft didn't see it coming. Bill Gates alerted his company in 1995 in the famous "Internet Tidal Wave" memo. As far back as 1993, Nathan Myhrvold, Microsoft's CTO wrote a memo: "Roadkill on the Information Highway" that spelled out how even the PC software business would be extinguished by digital networks.

Mr. Stross explained how it's been a few years since Microsoft made money in its on-line business and how the numbers have gotten uglier since. Meanwhile, Google's numbers are going in the opposite direction.

Microsoft is simply unable to dictate its own fate and escape from the Single-Era conjecture, the author concluded.

Observer Comments

Show: Subjects Only | Full Comments
Close Name:Guest
Subject: Not quite

not that MS wont' go down in flames, but Apple itself has been successful in more than one era. In the era of the Apple II, Apple was extremely domninant. They took a step back from that with the Apple ///, the early Mac, et al, but they are easily at the top of the game now in the areas where they specialize.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: wasn't on top

The conjecture suggests that its impossible for a company to stay "on-top." Apple wasn't on top in the first era.

Close Name:Tiger Posts: 1018 Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Subject: from the sound of it...

somebody's kicked off the Microsoft Death Knell counter.

Close Name:pfuey Posts: 2 Joined: 08 Feb 2008
Subject: On top

Apple was on top in the first era. I don't know the numbers off the top of my head but they started the personal computer era.

What I suspect Mr. Stross is saying (haven't read the article myself) is a company can't stay on top in 2 consecutive eras.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: Almost out of business

At the tail end of the 'personal computing' era, they were definitely not on top. They were for a short period at the beginning maybe, but not for long. I'd say MS was the clear winner in that era. It remains to be seen now in the internet era... don't count the butterfly out yet.

Close Name:tundraboy Posts: 23 Joined: 26 Jan 2007
Subject:

Thing is, to stay on top of 2 consecutive eras, you have to be willing to tear down what you built and start something new on top of the wreckage. That's very hard to do on a personal, emotional level. So, when you hesitate, somebody else jumps in, tears down your life's work and they build their own imposing edifice atop your rubble.

The first step microsoft should have done was to split their OS and Apps divisions. Then they should junk all legacy apps and win their customers all over again. The creative energy unleashed by the break up and inspired by the product rebuilding would have been a potentially awesome force. Who knows what new ideas that might have generated?

But of course they don't have the vision or guts to do what it takes.

Close Name:WetcoastBob Posts: 83 Joined: 17 Aug 2006
Subject: Two things.....

Two things come to mind from reading the article in the Times.

1) If Microsoft is in decline then what is in store for big business, government administration/research and everyone else who uses Windows in a big way? How about Google? Do they use servers from Microsoft? Lets face it.. the great majority of the world's IT is MICROSOFT! ....(SHUDDER) If everyone using Windows wants to bail out, where are they going to go??? Apple Inc. has SMB solutions. Not an option for big business.

2) Where does this leave Apple Inc.? The business model is very diversified. iTunes, an online endeavour is successful, and I think that Apple TV will eventually be as successful (note the efforts to tweak this). What about the software side of Apple? Will this go the way of Microsoft? (run aground) How important will "features" be in successive OS X versions? I have yet to see a compelling reason to upgrade to Leopard. As much as I think iWork '08 is fabulous, I know of long-time (all their life) mac people who are using Open Office and Google for word processing and spreadsheats. In my opinion the strength of the Macintosh computer is the combination of hardware and software. (1+1=3) Will this be able to span two successive technological eras??

Cheers:
Bob

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