 |
by
November 11th, 2008
Recently, I stopped by a local T-Mobile store, the home of the new G1 phone. This is the so-called Google phone, the mobile device with Google's Android operating system. Many in the press have anointed the Google phone as a potential "iPhone killer." That is, a device capable of knocking the iPhone off its pedestal as the most desirable and most well-reviewed smartphone on the market. While the iPhone is not yet the overall leader in sales, it's moving along here as well; latest reports show that the iPhone has surpassed RIM's Blackberry to reach second place in smartphone rankings (and an even more recent report has the iPhone as the #1 U.S. consumer phone, besting even Motorola's RAZR).
I spent a few minutes playing with the G1. Not enough time for a review but enough to know that I was not immediately impressed. The hardware design felt "clunky" — especially the flimsy-feeling sliding of the touchscreen, needed to reveal the keyboard underneath. As for the software, it had had some impressive features (including a few that I hope to see added to the iPhone someday, such as barcode reading and application multitasking) and a decent collection of built-in apps. But it did not have a particularly intuitive user interface. I had trouble just figuring out how to access the complete list of available applications. Perhaps I've become too comfortable with the iPhone to give the G1 a fair shake. But, as I indicated, reviewing the G1 is not really the point of this column anyway.
What I really want to talk about is this: The prediction that the G1 may be destined to overtake the iPhone for essentially the same reasons that MS-DOS (and Windows) practically managed to kill off Apple back in the 1980s and 90s. The rationale for this doomsday scenario notes that Android is an open source operating system (built on a Linux kernel) capable of running on a variety of different hardware devices. In contrast, the iPhone runs a proprietary operating system (Mac OS X) with hardware only from a single company (Apple). Eventually, so the argument goes, these Android advantages will overwhelm the iPhone, similar to how Windows overwhelmed the Mac.
This prediction is about as likely to come true as the proverbial pig flying. Let's ignore for the moment that, in the end, Windows did not kill the Mac. The Mac is now back stronger than ever, and it is Windows Vista that is struggling. Even so, Android and the G1 do not present the challenge to the iPhone that Apple faced decades ago. A RoughlyDrafted article from a couple of months ago presented a convincing case for this: "Unlike Apple's iPhone, Android phones won't have a slick user interface developed by professional artists, nor the iPhone's legacy of mature software development frameworks crafted over the last thirty years, nor the iPhone's tightly integrated hardware with award winning industrial design, nor its marketing power tied into the iPod and Apple's retail stores."
I agree. That article also offered a strong argument for why the openness of Android will not play a decisive role in the future success of the Google phone, any more than Linux has replaced Windows as the dominant OS on computers. In that regard, it's worth pointing out that Windows's success was not because it was an "open" system. It isn't any more open than Mac OS X. Actually, because of Mac OS X's basis in UNIX, Apple's OS is probably now the more "open" of the two. True, Microsoft licenses Windows to run on a variety of hardware platforms. Apple does not do this with Mac OS X. There may be some advantages to Microsoft here (and you'll continue to read articles advocating that Apple should similarly license Mac OS X). But both Windows and Mac OS X are proprietary systems.
Still, the most critical reasons that the iPhone's success is likely to remain undiminished, despite Android, applies just as well to any other competitor that may come along:
Development time is not an issue. Back in the previous century, developers faced some serious obstacles in converting PC apps to run on a Mac. Add that to the Mac's shrinking market share and many developers decided it wasn't worth the time and money. The situation with the iPhone is much different. The conversion process is much easier (recall those demos of how fast developers were able to get applications up and running even before iPhone 2.0 software was released to the public). And the iPhone's market share is not shrinking, but growing.
The iPhone rides on the coattails of the iPod. The iPhone is an iPod at its core. And the iPod is by far the leader in the MP3 player market. The iPod in turn is linked to the iTunes Store, the #1 music retailer in the U.S. This gives the iPhone a huge advantage right out of the starting gate, one that competing phones will find difficult, if not impossible, to overcome.
Apple will respond to the competition. One potential advantage of Android is that it is far less restrictive about what software is permissible. Indeed, the Android Developer Distribution Agreement states: "Google does not intend, and does not undertake, to monitor the Products or their content..." although it reserves the right to remove apps that violate obvious restrictions (such as pornographic or malware apps). I wish Apple had more of this spirit, instead of wasting its time working to prevent users from jailbreaking their phones. Google's approach certainly undercuts Apple's argument that it needs to maintain a tight control over what apps are allowed in the App Store so as to "protect" consumers. Still, Apple made a significant concession recently when it removed many of the restrictions from the NDA (non-disclosure agreement) that iPhone developers need to sign. Developers can now talk openly about released software.
I expect that Apple will continue to do whatever is necessary to stay ahead of the competition. For the moment, however, it needs to do very little. iPhone owners are happy with the App Store and app developers are largely content with the money they are making.
Apple "gets it." The very term "iPhone killer" amounts to free advertising for Apple. It implies that, even though the iPhone has been out for little more than a year, it is already the device to beat. It is interesting to speculate on why this is so. Why, for example, isn't the iPhone described as a potential "Blackberry-killer" — especially so when you consider that the Blackberry smartphone has been around since 2002? Here's why:
Apple succeeds because it is willing to rethink basic assumptions. Apple's strategy for success with the iPhone was not to develop a smartphone that was only marginally better than the competition. They certainly had no intention of coming up with a device that could sync with iTunes but offered little more (see: the ill-fated Motorola ROKR with iTunes). The iPhone, as with the Mac itself, emerged from a willingness to start from scratch and a desire to create the absolute best device possible. When the rules don't fit your ideas for the device, don't change your device; change the rules. That's what Apple did with the iPhone.
Add to that Apple's attention to design (something most other companies give too little attention) -- and you have a tough combination to beat.
With hindsight, it's often easy to see why such a strategy is the smart way to go. But few companies have the foresight to see this. Apple does.
That is how the iPod came to dominate the music and video world (remember, the iPod was far from the only MP3 player on the market when it was first released) and it is how the iPhone is similarly succeeding. And that's why other companies wind up chasing after Apple instead of vice versa.
The iPhone's long-term success is not guaranteed. There is still plenty of opportunity for Apple to falter in the months and years ahead. Even now, not every Apple product is a resounding winner. But, as long as Apple maintains its core strategy, I don't see the G1 phone -- or any other smartphone -- keeping the iPhone from continuing on its ascendant trajectory.
Ted Landau is the founder of MacFixIt, and the author of Take Control of Your iPhone and other Mac help books.
Send polite comments to , or post your comments below.
User Friendly View Archives.
Observer Comments
if you buy a 8 gb sd card, you could have an argument for a iphone killer, just got my card the other day so you might want to rethink that...
and I have it syncing flawlessly with itunes
http://ita.sourceforge.net/index.htmli
added and extra i to the link sorry, but it still works
http://ita.sourceforge.net/index.html
Please, please, everyone remember that the G1 is just what the name says that it is. The name does not mean Google 1 as much as it means Generation 1. The g1 iPhone had a number of missing features out of the box as well. Remember when you had a static home screen and couldn't even rearrange the icons. Yeah, I do too. In fact, the first iPhone should be considered a Beta version anyways. Released in one market, at one price, and received numerous upgrades. Since then, the iPhone has been updated with hundreds of new features. Give the G1 some time. I don't think anyone should even review Android for at least one year. It's still in Beta.
Agree that Windows Mobile is a more likely target of Android.
One thing I have not seen discussed yet is that Dr. Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google, is on the Apple board. During the original iPhone keynote Steve Jobs said there are many relationships between the boards. What does that mean in terms of the strategies of the two companies?
While I agree with the article, we should never underestimate the strength of "good enough." Apple has the lead right now and they need to keep pushing so they can stay far enough out ahead to avoid "well this phone is good enough." I think they're in good position because I have a feeling that the iPhone isn't about being a cell phone, it's about a mobile computer that can make phone calls. That's the big desing shift that Apple is leading.
This isn?t a comparison? when I went to this article I expected the 2 phones to be compared with one another. The articles started off with some quick comparisons to make it seem like this was a honest review of both phones. Soon after it turned in to a fanboy article?
I would have a G1 right now if it wasn?t for T-Mobile? T-Mobile is the only reason the G1 won?t be an iPhone killer anytime soon.
Another quick comment, I am still waiting for these dreaded problems with my Vista 64-bit OS? it?s been a year and nothing so far. Seems like these apple fanboys read some articles somewhere then they just quote it acting like they are experts when it comes to Microsoft.
Interesting article, and good comments. The G1 is a nice start for a promising platform. I considered buying the iPhone, but decided against it, since I can't accept its limitations and the proprietary lock-in. The G1 I would probably buy, but I will wait for other offerings from Sprint and other companies, and perhaps the G2 before buying. The Android Market also needs a little more time to mature. The first generation iPhone had shortcomings, and so does the first generation G1. I agree with the posters here that note that Android is aimed more at WindowsMobile than the iPhone. iPhone users are Mac enthusiast who like the Mac philosophy and want a Mac and nothing else please.
G1 users will be people with a broader range of hardware and software needs, who are willing to accept a less slick and well-crafted package in exchange for greater power and flexibility.
This isn?t a comparison? when I went to this article I expected the 2 phones to be compared with one another. The articles started off with some quick comparisons to make it seem like this was a honest review of both phones. Soon after it turned in to a fanboy article?
I would have a G1 right now if it wasn?t for T-Mobile? T-Mobile is the only reason the G1 won?t be an iPhone killer anytime soon.
Another quick comment, I am still waiting for these dreaded problems with my Vista 64-bit OS? it?s been a year and nothing so far. Seems like these apple fanboys read some articles somewhere then they just quote it acting like they are experts when it comes to Microsoft.
...and by the time its" reviewable"? What , maybe iPhone will be in say "zeta" (as opposed to beta for all you No-Greek alphabet knowers) it will be a while before anything comes close. I've fiddled with a few of the other touchphnes. They all feel flimsy and desperate. And don't get me started on that new blackberry. To let them tellit in their new commercial,THEY came up with a touchphone first--- a marketing strategy to be sure, but a lame and laughable one.
I've had my iPhone (not 3G) for almost a year and I'm very happy with it. In a year when my contract expires I'll take a look at both Android and iPhone and decide which way to go. But I would buy and recommend to others, an iPhone today as it is a very nice product that does a whole lot of things very nicely. It meets my needs and like any product, that's what's important.
I think that as people that are into technology, like is suspect many people commenting are, that we forget that the average consumer could care less about operating systems, and open source or not. They care about what they can do with it,how easy it is to us, and how it looks. This is especially true for small devices like cell-phones. I'm a seasoned software developer and switch to mac years ago after living on the bleeding edge with linux(and windows in vmware when necessary) for years. The reason I switched is that for the things I actually spent my time doing, apple had thought out some much better. It is so much more intelligently done and just beautiful! The same goes for iphone. While there are some limits in the current SDK(like baground processes), but for the most part I understand why they exist and I'm sure apple resolve them once they work out the right way to handle them on resource limited devices such as iphone. In either case I'm sure everyone will be happy when Android, and the rest of the competition copy enough of the iphone interface.. Maybe in G2.
Tue Nov 11, 2008 2:22 pm Subject: Andy I likes it - and that says a lot
Andy Ihnatko DID compare the iPhone to the G1 and did not find it lacking. Andy knows his stuff and his second edition of his iPhone book is soon to hit the shelves. Read his "brain dump" here:
http://ihnatko.com/index.php/2008/10/16/the-great-google-phone-brain-dump-part-one/
QuoteI wish Apple had more of this spirit, instead of wasting its time working to prevent users from jailbreaking their phones.
http://gizmodo.com/5079259/google-seals-up-android-jailbreak-in-automatic-update
I guess Google is evil too! In fact, it's even more eviler than Apple because it forces the update on users!
[quote="Anonymous"I considered buying the iPhone, but decided against it, since I can't accept its limitations and the proprietary lock-in.[/quote]
Me neither.
The 7,500 apps currently available from the App Store are too limiting for me. There's not enough power and flexibility there.
I can't even accept the G1 Android because it's only available from the proprietary T-mobile network.
What to do, what to do...?
Tue Nov 11, 2008 9:16 pm Subject: Open source will beat everything everytime over time.
Quotevery true, how can the iphone be regarded as a truly smartphone? I mean come on, it can't even have multiple apps running at once! PCs have been doing this for how many millions of years? (figuratively speaking)Guest wrote:QuoteAnonymous wrote:
The IPhone is not a smartphone!
Right! Its a dumphone. As a matter of fac, its a stupid phone!
It entertains me when people invent theories just to squash the theories. Truth be told, the Google phone is never meant to "squash" the iPhone. It is designed primarily to prevent Microsoft from gaining a monopoly in the phone OS market as it did in the PC market.
Google could have sat around and waited for the iPhone to become dominant... but in time, Microsoft could have squashed them since Apple decided to go with the walled garden approach which eventually comes back to haunt them.
So, with the iPhone... and the Google phones that will be rolling out over the next few years... and with Blackberry, still keeping some momentum going... Microsoft doesn't have a chance.
Why pretend the Google phone was supposed to be anything different?
But there implementation of the device is excellent. Bill Gates wasnt the first to dream of graphical operating system theory or design either, Mercedes didn't make the first car.
The point is when someone does something well, or better than others it doesnt matter that they didnt think it up first, just that it is a better product. I think you might find that 99% of iphone users dont give a crap who thought of making a touch screen phone, they just like that their phone works well, looks good and is fun and easy to use.
Like you, I am defacto biased in that I own one of the devices in question; in my case its the G1. Boringly, the main reason I went with the G1 is I'm already on T-Mobile along with 5 family members and that saves us a bunch. Frankly, I miss the way I was able to operate my BlackBerry with one hand so much of the time. But all in all, the G1 is doing much more for me.
But the real reason I'm writing is that I challenge your conclusion that an open platform can't overwhelm a closed one.
I found the "closed" features of the phone I switched from, the BlackBerry 8800 frustrating. Case in point, I could not setup groups for texting or my bluetooth would fail. Minor point, right. But this software issue NEVER got addressed by RIM. What could I do about it? Nothing.
If such a weakness exists in my G1 / Android, I'm going to place my hopes in open source programmers to solve it.
Case in point 2) the G1 shipped with NO facility to create a shortcut. Within a week, Any Cut showed up and solved the problem. This app addresses an OS level issue. Will iPhone apps developers be able to overcome OS level weaknesses? Probabaly not. Will Android developers? Definitely.
Want a one click way to turn off all power hungry features on my G1? Didn't ship with it. Will someone develop an app to do this? I'm betting on it.
Want to set the phone to silent with one click, AND let me set a time to auto-turn it back on? Didn't ship with it. Will someone develop an app to do this? I'm betting on it.
I'll place my hopes in the hands of open platforms and programmers, thank you.
BTW, I paid for iWorks on my MacBook. Then bought Office 2008. What did I end up preferring? OpenOffice 3.0
I stopped reading once you said you could not figure out how to get a full listing of the applications. Theres a tab at the bottom of the screen thats big as day. Anybody with the slightest lick of sense or even curiosity would touch that arrow pointing up. This would then reveal the full list of applications.
MY ONE YEAR OLD SON....immediately opened up the app tray as soon as he had my phone in hand. You'd have to be dumber than a one year old to not be able to find this. Nice try but just let the IPhone speak for itself. The fanboyish crap makes people look utterly foolish when they try to make up issues with another product.
Recent Headlines - Updated January 9th
- Thu, 5:56 PM
- Macworld Expo 2009 - Orbicule Announces Undercover 3 with Location Technology
- 5:49 PM
- News - TOM BIHN, Waterfield Designs Release 17” Unibody MacBook Pro Notebook Cases
- 3:50 PM
- Macworld Expo 2009 - Targus Shows File Share Cable for Mac
- 3:40 PM
- Macworld Expo 2009 - Blackmagic Demonstrates Video Recorder
- 3:14 PM
- News - Microvision Demonstrates SHOW WX Laser Projector
- 2:53 PM
- Just a Thought - First Time: A Closer look at Macworld and San Francisco
- 12:35 PM
- News - Mac Gamers Can Now Fight For Good or Evil in City of Heroes
- 12:12 PM
- News - EVE Online to Expand the Known Universe in March
- 11:53 AM
- News - Feral to Ship Rome: Total War Gold in March
- 11:19 AM
- News - Freeverse Says Commander: Napoleon at War is on the March
- 10:34 AM
- News - Whither Macworld Expo?
- 9:47 AM
- News - Paragon Issues 30 ‘Talking’ Dictionaries
The Mac Observer Reader Specials
- Download Typestyler, still the Ultimate Styling Tool for Internet, Print and Video Graphics. Works great in Classic with a Native OS X Version on the way. Free Tryout: www.typestyler.com
MacPro Memory 667Mhz With Apple Spec Heat Sink - 2GB $62 / 4GB $80 / 8GB $158. Click to Maximize your Macs...
Mac observers can now play Party Poker for Mac as well as Mac casino games by going to MacPokerOnline.com.
RamJet Memory: Upgrade a MacBook to 4GB RAM for $99! Add a 320G MacBook Hard Drive for $73! MacBook Pro 17" 8GB Kits Available Now! Click hereFor the latest Apple products use Ciao a comparison website to find laptops like MacBook Air. Then find the best prices on MP3 players and use our comparison tool to evaluate cell phones.
Laptop Hardware Provided by TechRestore - Overnight Mac & iPod Repairs.
