Happy Endings Todd Stauffer
(tstauffer@webintosh.com)
Thinking Too Slowly
Considering that I might one day be forced to convince a WinTel-oriented Power Computing to take a look at my (now two-month-old) PowerCenter Pro, I'm not ending this week feeling really happy about recent events in Mac OS licensing. I'm not saying anybody did anything wrong -- but I sure did like Mac OS cloning while it lasted.
Hopefully Motorola, Umax (reported to be licensed for Mac OS 8) and others will keep their heads above water for the next few months, and Apple will cut them a break for forging ahead into new markets -- enterprise, the Far East and elsewhere. But, it really doesn't matter any more.
I think the plan is changing so drastically -- and so quickly -- that licensing is a dead issue.
The Speed of... Computing
It hit me the other day, just after Apple's buyout bid for Power Computing's Mac OS assets became official. Suddenly, I realized that I may be thinking too slowly about this whole Mac licensing thing. In fact, we all may be thinking very slowly. That's not necessarily a bad thing. But it could mean that Apple will soon become a company that we won't be as interested in.
Who? I'm talking about the "Mac faithful." Those of us who are busy surfing the Mac news sites and reading their latest Evangelist digest aren't slouches when it comes to supporting and reading about Apple. We're involved -- maybe even hooked.
But we're also used to a certain status quo. The market hasn't changed that dramatically in the past few years:
- Mac users are still generally creatives, educators, professionals, academics and home users who chose the road less taken.
- Computers are expensive machines that require lots of care and loving.
- The war between WinTel and Mac/PowerPC rages on even as the two converge in functionality.
- Pro-PC writers exhibit their "bias" in under-reporting Mac achievements; Mac users show "fanaticism" in their e-mail responses.
- Clones are the key to Apple's survival.
But I believe a lot of this is going to change. Why? Steve Jobs and Larry Ellison are thinking very quickly.
Network Computers
The first step in the bold new order will be the introduction of network computing solutions, initially aimed at solving the problem of getting that 1:3 computer-to-kid ratios that Clinton has called for in our schools. Network computers (NCs) are cheap computers, relatively easy to manage, still run most Mac applications, and rely on Zip or similar technology for personal storage.
Rumors abound that Jobs is pushing Apple's hardware people to put together some NCs in a hurry. (Even artistic renderings of potential NCs -- based on the old Next Computer-style chassis -- have circulated. Cool idea.) Larry Ellison is a board member. The eMate is meeting with success in schools, supporting the "diskless" NC concept.
Even the renewed energy for the Mac OS from Apple is somewhat telling. Sure, they want to make money soon by selling copies of Mac OS 8 along with new Power Macs. But I also have a sneaking suspicion that the Mac OS is going to live on for quite some time -- as the interface and underpinings for Apple's NCs. Maybe a color Newton OS would be a better choice, but a rock-solid Mac OS running on closed-box NCs could solve a lot of problems.
For this strategy to work, though, cloning had to fall by the wayside. Why? Because in order to compete with cloners, Apple needed to reinvent itself as a software company, along the lines of Microsoft. (I think it was Henry Norr who first named to two Apple spin-off companies "AppleHard" and "AppleSoft.") To build NCs, though, the company needs to stay together.
To Apple, that makes cloning irrelevant.
Rhapsody Too
Plus, Mac OS cloning may be irrelevant in the face of Rhapsody. Here's what I think Rhapsody is going to do:
- Become the OS of choice for creative professionals -- at least, those creative professionals who don't opt for Windows NT.
- Compete with NT (and grow the Mac advantage) as a Web server. Already, WebObjects puts Rhapsody beyond what Microsoft can do. Unix power with Mac ease of administration and security? Winner.
- Become the server OS for Apple's NC strategy.
- Compete for mindshare with NT in the enterprise -- especially where quick-turnaround Objective C (and other languages -- Java comes to mind) programming is essential. With Yellow Box for Windows, RhapTel and other options, write-once deploy-many may work better for Rhapsody than it does for Sun's Java.
So, I'm not convinced that Apple will be able to control Rhapsody cloning, if and when it happens. That could be a good thing -- it'd be interested to finally reach the point where a PowerPC machine might run a few OSes -- at least Mac OS, Rhapsody, and Be.
Power Mac Users
The Mac OS will stick around for a while, but I think we're expected to transition to Rhapsody if we can help it at all -- even as NCs work their way into companies where they empower IS departments to control their users' computing experience. And, once a few nagging bandwidth issues are solved in homes, NCs might make their way to the coveted "other 50%" of households that don't yet use computers. Maybe Apple can do some bundling with cable access companies for solid bandwidth using cable modems.
Otherwise, we'll see one or two updates to the Mac OS ("milk the Mac," as Jobs is quoted saying a while ago), but without the push to increase market share or compete against Windows 95/98. Content creators and others who want a Mac desktop can get one, but you'll be paying Apple's proprietary prices (in most cases) for the opportunity. Maybe their direct prices will be better.
But it does make cloning irrrelevant.
Customers Irrelevant?
I'm not convinced this is a great thing -- but, then again, I'm used to thinking only about Mac and WinTel desktops, not NCs, Rhapsody and other factors. But, at least the "vision thing" that Apple and Jobs are supposed to be so good at is finally at play here.
We tell Apple to innovate, then get upset when it looks like things are changing out from under us. But maybe it's time for computing to change again. Today's Mac is the Apple II, if you will, and now we're getting ready to move on to something else.
And if Apple "changes" itself into obscurity? There's always Be.
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