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April 13th, 2007
Recently the Sun darkened, puppies spontaneously burst into flames, and Paris Hilton offered her thoughts on quantum physics, and it made sense. The world has gone mad, I tell you. Mad!
Why?
Because Apple announced that they are delaying the release of its much anticipated OS X upgrade, Leopard, until October 2007.
Did you feel that? Even when I mention the new release date I can detect a subtle shift in the Earth's gravitational field.
I'm being ridiculously melodramatic, of course, but if you listen to the caterwauling around the Web you'd think some of those things I mentioned actually happened.
The delay, claims Apple, is due to them focusing more engineering and quality assurance resources on iPhone. In doing so Apple has poked a pointy stick at a hornets nest.
I'm not sure people have taken some things into account so, lets take a look at situation at the 10,000 foot level.
High Stakes Hype
Apple in entering a new arena; the handheld mobile market. This is something that Apple fans have asked for since the demise of the Newton, though perhaps not in the guise of a cell phone, but we take what we can get. What's more, the hype around the iPhone is absolutely amazing. Cell phone, PDA, and mobile computer makers are carefully watching what happens when iPhone becomes available.
For Apple, the stakes are extremely high. The company has nurtured the perception that its products are a cut above, that Apple devices not only work and work well, but that they work so well that you'll want to use them more.
The iPod did a lot to establish this image of Apple in the minds of consumers. Here is a little device that is so simple to use that anyone from 5 to 105 can use it without an instruction manual. It is easy to carry, easy to own, and do what you'd expect of it. It is why the iPod enjoys a 70 + percent portable music player market share, and it's a tough act to follow.
If Apple fails with the iPhone the resulting fallout could affect Mac and iPod sales, sort of "The iPod Halo Effect" in reverse.
Alone In A Colosseum
The cellphone market is a tough arena. This is a market where product life-cycles are measured in months. Walk into any cell phone store and you'll see a dizzying array of devices that literally do everything and let you make phone calls. Walk into the same store two months from now and many of the devices have changed; newer models, better features, cheaper prices keep this market in a crazy flux.
If you are like me then you change your cell phone every 12 to 24 months as your contracts expire. Apple is looking to provide a device that you'll want to hold onto for a bit longer than that.
Also, mobile phone carriers see the iPhone as a possible game changer. Instead of trying to maintain a constantly changing inventory the iPhone suggests that users will hold on to their devices and just add features; features equals more money, and they like more money.
Consequently, cell phone makers will have to change their marketing strategy as well, perhaps by reducing the number of models they offer and charging more for the one they do offer.
Why Not Hire More People?
It takes time to acclimate people to the way a company does business, and you don't stick new people in at the rear end of a project. The current Apple engineers and quality folks are, at this moment and quite literally, the only people on the planet who can do what they do, in the way that they do it.
A lot is riding on the iPhone. Of the two projects, it is the riskier one and it needs special attention to make sure that when it is released, the iPhone approaches the hype, and possibly exceeds expectations.
Taken In This Context...
... it is not hard to see why Jobs and crew decided on the delay.
So, sidestep the exploding puppies, it's not the end of the world, Apple isn't evil, Leopard will show its spots, and the iPhone will be a good thing.
Vern Seward is a writer who currently lives in Orlando, FL. He's been a Mac fan since Atari Computers folded, but has worked with computers of nearly every type for 20 years.
Just a Thought Archives.
Observer Comments
Fri Apr 13, 2007 4:05 pm Subject: Exactly
Quotegeoduck wrote:
And let's not forget that Apple has a very good OS now. 10.5 will add some nice, useful things but it isn't like 10.4 is awful. It actually works very well.
It isn't broken, so we can wait a few months until it is fixed.
On the other hand over the last few days my cell phone is acting up. It won't always disconnect automatically when I close the clamshell, keys don't always beep when pressed and such. I have had it for over three years, so no complaints about the faithful service it has provided, I just hope that it holds on for a few more months until I see what offers AT&T has for the iPhone.
QuoteSir Harry Flashman wrote:
It isn't broken, so we can wait a few months until it is fixed.
You must not be in a multi-user/network home directories (Through Tiger server) environment with a password-protected proxy server bound to a MS active directory. Oh, and of course, you must not want to watch embedded quicktime movies (even the Leopard preview) using Safari, or use Spotlight when in this environment. You must also not be trying to work directly on files in a workflow with a Helios-based asset repository system.
You see, these things all worked fine in 10.3. They don't in 10.4.. even 10.4.9. I've put in a number of Apple Bug reports.. still nothing. So we're mostly still on 10.3.. not by choice. We own 10.4 for all of our [150 or so]machines, but still can't roll it out completely.
So Broken? It depends on your environment. I had hoped that the significant changes in Leopard would also get past these issues...
Fri Apr 13, 2007 4:22 pm Subject: No reason to bash...
Fri Apr 13, 2007 4:39 pm Subject: No I am not
n/t
Quotebrett_x wrote:QuoteSir Harry Flashman wrote:
It isn't broken, so we can wait a few months until it is fixed.
You must not be in a multi-user/network home directories (Through Tiger server) environment with a password-protected proxy server bound to a MS active directory. Oh, and of course, you must not want to watch embedded quicktime movies (even the Leopard preview) using Safari, or use Spotlight when in this environment. You must also not be trying to work directly on files in a workflow with a Helios-based asset repository system.
You see, these things all worked fine in 10.3. They don't in 10.4.. even 10.4.9. I've put in a number of Apple Bug reports.. still nothing. So we're mostly still on 10.3.. not by choice. We own 10.4 for all of our [150 or so]machines, but still can't roll it out completely.
So Broken? It depends on your environment. I had hoped that the significant changes in Leopard would also get past these issues...
Fri Apr 13, 2007 4:44 pm Subject: four months = five years...
to some people.
The younger you are the slower time seems to progresses. A four month delay is less than a hiccup or the blink of an eye in the grand scheme of things. It will go by so fast for most of us who are very busy with work that it will hardly be noticed (brett_x and his cobbled-together but imaginative workflow aside).
No, four months is just not very long at all. Keep delays in perspective. It is not five years or even one year. It is 120 days or so. A mere 16 weeks.
Fri Apr 13, 2007 5:31 pm Subject: Quantum Mechanincs
QuoteGuest wrote:
'Zakly. "Apple" has NEVER bashed Vista for being late. The commercials bash it for being complicated, overly restrictive (allow or deny), having hard to understand error codes, virus-ridden...but nothing about being late.
WE have given M$ heck for not being able to field LongWait (I mean Longhorn) (Oops I mean Vista), not Apple!
FWIW, Steve Jobs (and perhaps Phil Schiller) has made fun of Vista being long overdue in keynote events.
Bryan
Editor
TMO
QuoteDude, Your problem lies in the fact you’re using a M$ product.brett_x wrote:QuoteYou must not be in a multi-user/network home directories (Through Tiger server) environment with a password-protected proxy server bound to a MS active directory.Sir Harry Flashman wrote:
It isn't broken, so we can wait a few months until it is fixed.
Fri Apr 13, 2007 6:04 pm Subject: MS Active directory problems...
I've seen this issue before, in a k-12 education environment where they were trying to use an Xserve with Active Directory, I know they had a workaround for it but yeah, I also remember it was quite a pain.
That said, I kind of wish that all of these different companies that are trying to promote their own "open" standards for various things from file formats to networking architecture would stop breaking each others code so egregiously, I think its clear that the reason things like Active Directory, Samba and WMV are hard/annoying/buggy on MacOS is because MS wants it that way. The same could be said for QT on Windows, though whose specific fault the problems with that software might be debated, I know I still have a perfectly stable QT on win 2k HD image from several years back, boots fine and plays back medium res movies ok even in emulation. Apply one of Microsoft's updates to that drive...bam half my movies stutter or just won't play. I'm not suggesting that Apple is innocent in this at all, they're just as capable of aggressively (ruthlessly even) promoting a format/standard/whatever that they want, despite the compatibility problems with some files MP4/h264/x264 is a perfect example.
I'll bet Steve Jobs gets a little dirty thrill every time he sees a torrent go online in a QT MP4 compliant format because of the growing popularity of the 264 codec with the video iPod, AppleTV, etc-cmon, you know he has a whole folder of crazy hack and torrent rss feeds in his safari, he wants to keep up with the crazier members of the mac base-because regardless of whether or not the copyright holder for the file gets paid you need hardware to play it back on, and Apple is swiftly moving into a position of strength in video again. Of course I'm sure MS will have a response, whatever you think of them they are quite crafty in the standards arena in particular.
I guess my thing is that the end result, just like the bogus HDDVD vs Blu-ray boondoggle in progress, is that some portion of consumers inevitably are screwed out of a bunch of money, and one company or the other gets blamed when a variety of tactics and factors affected the outcome. The same HD disc example, Sony is winning because they have such a tremendous catalog of video content and they built the format into a major console. Microsoft and the HD partners are losing because their content offerings are weaker and MS has explicit refused to build HD-DVD into the 360, the Elite was their last chance and they passed it up. I personally think a $499 Elite with HD-DVD and a slightly smaller drive (80GB perhaps) would have been their best shot to strike back, but they seem to have conceded. I'm one of the foolish who got the HD-DVD attachment, I don't feel too bad because in my eyes $250 to watch Fear and Loathing and Full Metal Jacket in HD was money well spent, but it would have been nice if I could look forward to more movies in the future, as it is I'm left with a $200 external DVD-ROM for all intents and purposes, oh well I occasionally use it as a makeshift USB hub for my iBook 
Wow, that went way Off Topic, heh I just get worked up because it seems like its always (in the eyes of consumers/media) the responsibility of the company that really doesn't control the offending product to fix problems, is what I'm trying to get at.
From what I know about SJ (which is limited by my never being within, oh 500 miles of the man) I suspect that after his making such a big deal about it last fall he was really not happy about this delay. SJ may have understood the delay but I suspect the poor schlep who had to walk into SJ's office and say "I'm sorry sir but we just aren't going to be able to get Leopard out before the end of summer" got his a** handed back to him on a platter.
Unless Jobs made the call himself that is.
I'd also like to point out that the Leopard engineers have been very busy because they also had to adjust OSX for Apple TV, and it is highly likely the miniature version of Leopard will be going into the next version of the iPod as well as the iPhone. That new iPod most likley will be coming out this year as well.
Moreover, Apple bashed Vista before Leopard was late. Besides, Apple said the release is feature completed and will be given to developers in June. It is likley we will see more details then. Also, Apple likely will update some software this week.
QuoteVSeward wrote:Quotecjh6973 wrote:
I am not a Mac hater by any means at all, in fact I like them. But Apple has no reason to bashing Vista for being late.
Vista was YEARS late. We're only talking a few months here.
Quotegeoduck wrote:
From what I know about SJ (which is limited by my never being within, oh 500 miles of the man) I suspect that after his making such a big deal about it last fall he was really not happy about this delay. SJ may have understood the delay but I suspect the poor schlep who had to walk into SJ's office and say "I'm sorry sir but we just aren't going to be able to get Leopard out before the end of summer" got his a** handed back to him on a platter.
Unless Jobs made the call himself that is.
Well, maybe some schlep got diced. I would like to think the troops at Cupertino would have learnt by now that you present the evidence, and it needs to be overwhelming evidence, that a delay should be enacted, and wait for SJ to see the wisdom of it. I really can't imagine that at Apple, making any judgment calls of that magnitude would be done by anyone else than Jobs.
Sun Apr 15, 2007 9:37 pm Subject: DELAY...Most of you dont get it
QuoteRainy Day wrote:QuoteDude, Your problem lies in the fact you’re using a M$ product.brett_x wrote:QuoteYou must not be in a multi-user/network home directories (Through Tiger server) environment with a password-protected proxy server bound to a MS active directory.Sir Harry Flashman wrote:
It isn't broken, so we can wait a few months until it is fixed.
I'm well aware of that. But in case you haven't noticed, MS is sort of a standard for enterprise environments. I only manage the Macs and we have over 5000 other computers here that aren't macs.
My point is that it is the most common proxy server out there. Apple's authentication method worked just fine in Panther, but it doesn't in Tiger.. and there's nothing I can do about that except use a 3rd party proxy helper (far from ideal- much more overhead and training for users) or stay on Panther and keep submitting bugs to Apple.
I agree that 4 months isn't much longer, but it has been nearly 2 years since Tiger was released.. and it's still broken if you ask me.
Mon Apr 16, 2007 10:55 am Subject: IT problem
Quotebrett_x wrote:
...My point is that it is the most common proxy server out there. Apple's authentication method worked just fine in Panther, but it doesn't in Tiger.. and there's nothing I can do about that except use a 3rd party proxy helper (far from ideal- much more overhead and training for users) or stay on Panther and keep submitting bugs to Apple.
I agree that 4 months isn't much longer, but it has been nearly 2 years since Tiger was released.. and it's still broken if you ask me.
Actually, yours is one of the few legit gripes I've heard since Apple's announcement.I hope it is obvious that my article wasn't about you.
In my IT job I'm aware of only a small handful of Macs on our networks, and they have not had much of a problem doing anything. That's not to say that there are no problems, just that the users haven't complained. (as opposed to our zillion an hour complaint rate from Windows users)
I do hope the problem you see is fixed in Leopard.
Vern Seward
QuoteYou been reading too many creatively worded Sony press releases? A few thousand James Bond discs isn't going to be enough to keep them afloat. All you have to do is watch the big box retailer's flyers and you'll see how this is going to turn out.DaiMac wrote:
I'm one of the foolish who got the HD-DVD attachment, I don't feel too bad because in my eyes $250 to watch Fear and Loathing and Full Metal Jacket in HD was money well spent, but it would have been nice if I could look forward to more movies in the future, as it is I'm left with a $200 external DVD-ROM for all intents and purposes, oh well I occasionally use it as a makeshift USB hub for my iBook
But 2 months is still considered late!
Vista was YEARS late. We're only talking a few months here.
QuoteTerrin wrote:
n"]Moreover, Apple bashed Vista before Leopard was late. Besides, Apple said the release is feature completed and will be given to developers in June. It is likley we will see more details then. Also, Apple likely will update some software this week.
QuoteVSeward wrote:Quotecjh6973 wrote:
I am not a Mac hater by any means at all, in fact I like them. But Apple has no reason to bashing Vista for being late.
Vista was YEARS late. We're only talking a few months here.
But 2 months is still considered late! Geez!
QuoteTerrin wrote:
n"]Moreover, Apple bashed Vista before Leopard was late. Besides, Apple said the release is feature completed and will be given to developers in June. It is likley we will see more details then. Also, Apple likely will update some software this week.
QuoteVSeward wrote:Quotecjh6973 wrote:
I am not a Mac hater by any means at all, in fact I like them. But Apple has no reason to bashing Vista for being late.
Vista was YEARS late. We're only talking a few months here.
QuoteBiff wrote:
You been reading too many creatively worded Sony press releases? A few thousand James Bond discs isn't going to be enough to keep them afloat. All you have to do is watch the big box retailer's flyers and you'll see how this is going to turn out.
Hmm, no just my understanding of recent HD disc sales was that Blu Ray was kicking ass, please feel free to link a report to the contrary. What's being featured on big box retail flyers has no direct correlation to national overall sales, sorry, as a former retail drone I know better, most of the time we featured stuff that we wanted to sell, hoping it would be the hot stuff.
As an HD-DVD owner I would honestly love to be proven wrong, I hate Sony for the most part.
QuoteMy point is that the retailers have gotten bored of the big Blu-ray push. Before it was full page ads in the flyers and big displays in the store. Now those are going away. HD-DVD players for $300-$400 are there now. There are now over 100k standalone HD-DVD players sold. Compare that to Blu-ray where 98% of the players are PS3s. Do you honestly think a format where 98% of the players are video game consoles is going to be the successor of DVD? The only thing Sony has left is Spiderman. Will that be enough?DaiMac wrote:
Hmm, no just my understanding of recent HD disc sales was that Blu Ray was kicking ass, please feel free to link a report to the contrary. What's being featured on big box retail flyers has no direct correlation to national overall sales, sorry, as a former retail drone I know better, most of the time we featured stuff that we wanted to sell, hoping it would be the hot stuff.
As an HD-DVD owner I would honestly love to be proven wrong, I hate Sony for the most part.
Tue Apr 24, 2007 12:05 pm Subject: HD-DVD apparently getting crushed...
Not to resurrect a dead thread, but I saw this link on Kotaku earlier indicating that Blu-Ray is beating HD-DVD handily in sales dept.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=24395
Like I said previously, I'm an HDDVD owner so I don't want things to go this way, hopefully something will turn it around.