I was a believer. When Apple execs first began selling off stocks at the end of April, I was a believer. "Well heck, I said, "one sell-order doesn't mean anything."

When the selling continued I said, "Look, Apple execs haven't sold any of their stock in years. It's about time."

Another sell-transaction and I said, "and besides, Apple's stock has been flat for a long time. Maybe these guys all promised Steve they wouldn't sell until, well, now."

Still another sell-transaction from an Apple exec and I was writing Apple looking for comment. I never heard back from them despite several attempts to get a comment. Undeterred, I said to myself, "Apple has been absolutely outstanding about reporting potential earnings shortfalls, and we haven't heard a thing about a warning." In other words, no news was good news, so everything was probably AOK.

When there was another transaction, some of the mainstream services began reporting it, and the San Jose Mercury news was able to wrangle a comment:

"A major part of Apple's senior management compensation is based on stock options. It's great to see some members of our management team get rewarded for their incredibly hard work by selling a bit of their stock," Apple Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs said in a statement released by the company.

"Hey," I said to myself, "that sounds reasonable." My belief was shaken, however.

When Apple's financial execs continued selling, including Peter Oppenheimer and Fred Anderson, my belief took a nosedive. These are the guys tasked with keeping Apple's books straight, and the people who have the best understanding of where exactly Apple's financial performance is. Throw in Tim Cook's sale, Apple's executive vice president of Worldwide Sales and Operations, the man who knows just how many Macs are being sold, and I don't know what to think.

Then we had Morgan Stanley and Salomon Smith Barney trading barbs regarding Apple's iMac shipments. Geesh...

Yesterday, Apple lowered guidance for the current quarter. That's the earnings warning whose absence had helped sustain my belief early on in the selling.

Apple's execs are some of the best executives in high-tech, and I don't begrudge any of them the opportunity to make some money. I think they have all done a remarkable job in the face of the worst technology downturn in some time, and I can't emphasize that strongly enough. I believe that Apple is the only PC company positioned to be relevant in the face of the commoditization of the industry under Dell's relentless pursuit to make the PC as meaningful as a microwave oven. I also believe that only Apple truly sees beyond the desktop. In other words, I am very confident in Apple's future.

I am also not accusing Apple's execs of insider selling; I have no evidence of that, and no information other than what is publicly available. I am, however, saying very strongly that this round of selling -- at least 9 sales from April 22nd to May 31st, and 15 filings for planned sales during the same period -- coupled with a late-in-the-quarter earnings warning, looks absolutely horrible for Apple. It is also the type of thing that tends to spark SEC investigations and investor lawsuits.

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