Let the games begin.

Ok, well, honestly I think Microsoft will be the first real competition that iTunes gets. Windows Media Player is pretty decent these days. I still PREFER iTunes, but I can't say that WMP displeases me in any big way. So I bet the store will be similar.

I'm sure MS will go with the $0.99 pricing to be competetive. If they find ways to integrate the store with other MSN or Windows features then that could be their big difference that helps them out.

Apple has the advantage of being first and having the iPod. I don't know that those advantages can be overcome no matter HOW good this thing is. To fight back iTunes it'll have to actually be BETTER and I don't really see that happening. BEST case, it'll be the same quality and in that case it's still several months too late.

We'll see.

While I don't like Microsoft's tactics, you missed a few rather major things they've done right

1. X-Box - Granted, I hate the fact that they bought out argueably the best Mac Game company ever (Bungie), this the X-Box is a cool system.

2. MS SQL Server - Granted, stolen from Sybase but it's now a major player in the SQL database arena.

3. MS Flight Simulator - Not as popular now with all the action games but it was and still is one of the best flight sims out there.

I see this fight outcome going one of three ways of which two help Apple:

1. MS wins the downloads battle at which point Apple opens the WMA capability that iPod is already able to play.

2. Apple wins and continues to battle MS but with something that MS can't win at. This makes for a major selling point of not just the iPod but the Mac as well since iTunes and Quicktime are becoming so entrenched.

3. Real wins the battle with Apple and MS buys them out. This would give them the ability give away software (and add it to the OS as standard) that would let WMA files be converted on the fly to work on the iPod. This could be bad and why I think Apple has to fight this battle or buy out Real.

The real question about the potential success of MS's music store will be how close they copy Apple, and how problem free their software is. (That does present a problem, doesn't it?)

It a good bet that they will copy the look and feel of The Music Store. Will they throw in things like Gift Certificates and Allowance? Wouldn't be surprised. Will you be able to buy songs and download them to your iPod? Whoops. That's only have the business right there. How about Free Music Wednesdays.

I have a feeling that before long Steve Jobs will be able to say, "We showed you how to do it and you still didn't get it right."

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with Sony floundering about like an 8-track tape out of water

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Other details include features similar to some of those being offered by Apple with its iTunes Music Store. From the article:

It is unclear how much Microsoft would charge per track, but it is understood that major record labels granted the software giant similar terms to those offered to Apple, which sells single tracks for 99 cents.

People familiar with the music store praised its user-friendly interface. It will include a powerful song search engine and a feature that would recommend artists and tracks based on customers' musical preferences. Consumers will also be able to share playlists and chat with each other.

"It will be 'share, talk and buy' for those who want it. They are really going for a feature-rich music experience," said another person familiar with Microsoft's music store.

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Guest wrote:

3. Real wins the battle with Apple and MS buys them out. This would give them the ability give away software (and add it to the OS as standard) that would let WMA files be converted on the fly to work on the iPod. This could be bad and why I think Apple has to fight this battle or buy out Real.

MS Project is also the defacto PM tool used in businesses, though I think the latest version is included in Office Professional on Windows. Visual Studio also needs no introduction.

Microsoft has been fended off many times, so it's not just a possibility that iTunes will remain the #1 online music store. However, Microsoft doesn't need to dominate. All they need is something around 35%-40% of the market before Apple will probably have to cave and offer WMV-compatible iPods. If Apple is going to win this "war," they must dominate this market the way Microsoft has dominated with Windows and Office.

And even with Apple's current leading position, that is very hard to do.

What if... MS already licensed Apple's DRM for their WMA and when MS launches their music store it's annouced by MS as being iPod "compliant" while Apple annouces iPod support for WMA downloads from the MS store.

By the time MS gets it's act together, public interest will have waned. Kind of like making a portable cassette player 5 years after the walkman. True MS did this before with windows, but that time Apple wasn't interested in making anything for non Apple people. This time they made iTunes for windows and the ability to make the iPod work on it too. Dell, who probably has more of a brand name recognition than MS when it come to home consumers already has tried and failed to take Apple's crown. MS will probably make a lukewarm clone of iTunes, that will inadvertantly be a carrier of viruses and worms, but they will have their branded versions of anti-virus software to sell you at the same time.

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Guest wrote:
What if... MS already licensed Apple's DRM for their WMA and when MS launches their music store it's annouced by MS as being iPod "compliant" while Apple annouces iPod support for WMA downloads from the MS store.

Just like Real's music store, if Microsoft doesn't have the portable vehicle to transport their music, they just won't be able to gain a successful foothold in this cutthroat business. Sure, Microsoft can piggy-back its music through the "other" music players out there, but none of them have a majority stake like Apple's iPod. Without iPod compatibility, Microsoft's music store will just be a conveniently built-in Windows feature.

Artists have more venues in which to peddle their wares.

I just hope that the artists are gaining something from this.

Sony and the other major record labels have been gouging and price fixing long enough. and the artist got a mere pittance plus the piracy.

"The Financial Times, for instance, points out that Microsoft's MSN online service claims 350 million unique visitors each and every month"

I have to wonder how many of those "visitors" are just hits on the MSN search engine? It is the default in IE, and is automatically invoked when you don't type a complete URL.

Microsof twill buy it's way in. And let's not forget - roughly 3 million iPods have been sold - and I'm sure that all 3 million of those people will continue to use the iTMS. However, 3 million isn't really THAT large of a number. Comparitively to the US / UK population using computers. So there's still a large chunk of people Microsoft can appeal to. Especially money pinchers - Microsoft sells songs for $.89 a track - and cheap MP3 players - wala. That's how they got rich in the first place.

Not only that, but some people think it's all huge that every computer HP sells comes with iTunes. Well, that's amazing, but every computer that HP, Dell, Gateway / e-Machines, etc etc etc - all come pre-bundled with Windows, and Windows Media Player. So every single machine will already have the Windows Music Store.

I could go on - but I'm tired.

Has everyone forgotton about the European ruling on WMP - which there is little doubt will be upheld. The argument so far seems to be that MS has the advantage of a huge user base with WMP. While that may be true, it's position may be less clear in Europe where it will have to offer windows without WMP ? at a lower price. I can easily see PC's being offered with the 'free' iTunes rather than WMP ... which would be very interesting.

Well, Microsoft was totally taken by suprise by Apple's music innovations (both Ipod & Itunes). And I'm sure they'll rush a music store to the market soon.

Apple has a few advantages:
- the Ipod - Itunes combo
- first mover advantage
- huge momentum & hype
- bugfree easy to use software

However we all know Microsoft don't we? They kill innovation by including their own versions in windows or the just buy up the competition. And yes, they NEVER get it right the first time around but they've got billions to spend! MSN made huge losses but is profitable now, Xbox still makes a loss but they've got the patience to sit out the rough ride...

Sooner or later MSFT WILL have a comparable and attractive product, they've got resources, money, influence, time & allies like Dell and others on their side.

It's a shame but it's very naive to think that Apple can dominate such a lucrative market on its own (though granted with a huge partner as HP at its side).

What should/could Apple do to stay a dominant player?
- keep improving ipod design
- lower prices and grow user base fast
- roll out Itunes as soon as possible in the whole of Europe, Japan & other big markets.
- keep feeding the Ipod Hype
- make more powerful allies
- ramp up production to satisfy demand
- grow it's mac sales & keep some phenomenal features for mac too... ( built in dock for iMac? or something cool like that - HP could do the same for the Hpod)

The good thing is Apple is doing just that and I'm sure the Apple brand will glow even brighter with some Imac frenzy and more deals like the recent Motorola one.

That been said, I think Apple isn't powerfull enough to dominate this market. Apple probably will have to satisfy itself with a duopoly (Itunes - MSFT?) or maybe even a few more players. Especially if local & regional players arise. When this happens the market will be more mature but if Ipod - Itunes stays closed to those smaller music stores, they could be driven to the microsoft standard.

As for legal action & rulings in Europe. They're an empty box, too little too late and Microsoft will always be able to find a loophole of some kind.

Apple created iTunes and the iPod as an "experience" more than anything else. The term "google" has become common because of its popularity and success. When was the last time you heard someone say they had "yahooed" for information for their term paper?

Sure, Microsoft's music store will make a go of it. It will be conveniant, cheap, and easy for any mom, pop, or grandparent to get some tunes. But I doubt it will ever become a destination the way the iTunes Music Store is.

Ditto, the iPod. Lots of copycats but still the leader for many reasons. By the time the competition has caught up Apple will have moved on to more features and new products.