So...if a bunch of imaginary stuff happens...Apple will be in trouble?

Ok, I'm glad someone explained that to me. I feel so much more educated!

He thinks Apple will need a bailout, essentially because of how well things are selling right now. I guess some people just have to keep searching for that dark cloud behind every silver lining.

Seriously though, this time of the year all of the political pundits/financial predictors/TV talking heads/end of year columnists, throw in a couple of off the wall predictions just to keep their predictions from sounding like those from all the other political pundits/financial predictors/TV talking head/end of year columnists.

Amusing but silly.

At least under that scenario the company sells for $80 per share or a $16 per share premium over today's price. A sale at the price noted would value the company at over $32 billion and about $6.5 billion more than the company's market cap today or an increase in the company's value of about 25%.

That's not a "bail out". It's a sale at a premium price

I was just thinking yesterday, now that Apple's doing so well, I'm gonna miss the ADKs. Glad to see there are still some loonies in the press to keep me amused.

over the future of the Mac. As the competition adds more features to cell phones, mp3 players, and the like, Apple will be caught, you guessed it, resting upon thier laurals. But, heck at least they are going out in a blaze of glory...which makes for a good movie script. Oh yeh, meet the John Wayne of the computer world, Steve Jobs. The last of the "one button" cowboys.

The first is that Apple puts intensive efforts into inventory control - lack of which hurt Apple in the days when Steve was not around.

Then there is the fact that when an iPod is shipped it is sold - one can gather dust on a retailer's shelf (if the retailer isn't good at inventory control) but it doesn't go back to Apple.

Now let's consider the future - with around half a billion in R&D each year Apple sure does.

Finally, old John thinks the flash iPod will fail to gain traction? LOL

[quote="Guest"] "Apple will be caught, you guessed it"...


No, I'm really stoopid. I can't guess anything like smart people like you.

Apple. Those lazy laurel layers. Damn them! No forward projection at all. All they do is get at the end of the line and follow everyone else.

Someone needs to teach them about innovation.

I f I knew for sure that Apple would be bought out in 2005 at 80 bucks a share, I would mortgage my house to buy as much stock as I could get my hands on. Unfortunately, I would then have to take up residence next to Martha Stewart.

+

On Tuesday, I was at a Kaufgfman's dept. store in Monroeville Mall (Monroeville, PA, USA, near Pittsburgh). They has several kiosks on the ground floor displaying consumer electronics, with inventory of said electronic devices tucked behind locked glass cabinets. One display has the Sony HD Walkman; its glass cabinet was packed to the max with unsold inventory. Another display had the iPod and iPod mini. The iPod kiosk's glass cabinet was completely empty; even the display mini was missing. Which, of course, means that anyone and everyone buying music players at that one particular store chose Apple over Sony.

This isn't shocking. What is shocking is Markman's prediction that suddenly, in 2005, without any reason whatsoever, worldwide consumers are going to stop wanting iPods. His market saturation joke aside (2.7 iPods per person), why does he think demand is simply going to go away? Has he no idea of how many Walkmans sold, and how far iPods have to go to meet that mark? (That means plenty of room for iPod market growth in 2005, Mr. Markman.)

Then there's that "other" Apple product: Macintosh. As I've said in the TMO forums, interest is increasing -- based on my own observations at my day job -- amongst die-hard Wintel users. One of my bosses bought an iBook for his son for XMas (due to iPod halo effect and Windows security issues), a member of our crack IT staff is buying a G5 iMac (due, mostly, to Windows security issues), and several others have either bought iMacs or iBooks, or intend to do so in the near future. (As the resident Mac expert, they come to me with questions, which gives me a good handle on increasing interest in the Mac.)

And let's not forget the quiet product at 1 Infinite Loop: XServe. Its market share is increasing dramatically. And with major companies like Oracle releasing new products for OS X Server, the future looks brighter and brighter for Apple in the IT space. No, they're not going to replace Windows or Linux, but they aren't going to go away, either.

Finally, just a brief aside regarding corporate culture: Right now (12/30/04), log onto the websites for Microsoft, Dell, and Apple. Microsoft and Dell -- the Wintel juggernaut -- have Home pages displaying business as usual. Apple does not. There are no iMacs, iPods, iBooks, or XServes displayed anywhere. Instead, there are logos and links to seven major charitable organizations working to bring relief to the Indian Ocean tsunami victims, along with a brief statement from Apple all too reminiscent of its Home page statement in the wake of 9/11. That speaks volumes, IMHO.

Perhaps like never before in its history, Apple is doing everything right. The idea that they will need bailed out in the span of only one year -- because of a mere two product failures -- is preposterous. Anyone with any knowledge of Apple's history knows the Company has survived far, far worse, in far worse circumstances.

Wow...how can I get me one of these journalism jobs where all that's needed to claim a paycheck is a page of uninformed drivel???

Some credit to Amazon as well for putting a large donation image on their home page too. Apple doesn't have much going on post-Christmas and pre-Expo but Amazon does have a whole lot of customers spending gift cards, etc.

and a weird one at that.

Read what he says about Sirius:

"Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI:Nasdaq - commentary - research) does another secondary offering to raise $250 million and offers the bulk of it to outgoing <B>Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld</B> for a seven-year broadcasting deal. In a press release, Sirius management says it believes the devotion of Rummy's global audience will translate into millions of subscriptions. Sirius stock soars on the news"

It's crook when so many Mac users seem to have lost their sense of humor!

The original article was satire, it was full of mildly funny jokes like this, only one of them involving Apple. It wasn't subtle, it wasn't a troll, anyone who had the slightest vestige of humor in their make-up and actually read the article could tell it was a joke.

OK, there's always a group of people who'll fire off an email before they engage their brain, but I've come to expect better from Bryan than this.

I had a tough time telling if the author was serious or not, then I read a previous column of his:


"One more thing: My column did not say that Apple Computer was a better stock than Sirius. It said that the companies represented two different successful paradigms: One in which users select and download music to listen to, and the other in which users enjoy it passively without commercial interruption.

This year, I pointed out, the stock representing active choice was beating the stock representing couch potatoes. Next year could be different. In fact, it wouldn't shock me to see Apple gobbled up at a premium before long by a larger company like Sony or Philips Electronics."

He then goes on to explain how great Rhapsody and Napster are. Here's the link:
http://www.thestreet.com/funds/supermodels/10200449_2.html

One thing is for sure, I'm not going to be taking stock advice from him.

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Guest wrote:
It's crook when so many Mac users seem to have lost their sense of humor!

The original article was satire, it was full of mildly funny jokes like this, only one of them involving Apple. It wasn't subtle, it wasn't a troll, anyone who had the slightest vestige of humor in their make-up and actually read the article could tell it was a joke.

Hmmm...I've re-read it several times and I think you may be right. But I take issue with this:

Quote

Guest wrote:
...anyone who had the slightest vestige of humor in their make-up and actually read the article could tell it was a joke.

Yeah, see, the problem with that theory is that what he wrote isn't really "funny" by any definition. I agree with you now...it probably IS a little bit of satire...but it's hard to recognize satire when no effort is made to make it funny.

I mean, I guess because Phillips is not the company that would really buy them in such a situation...? That's the "funny" part? Why not say that McDonalds bought them? If the joke is that it's an unlikely buyer, why not pick a more unlikely one?

And 2.7 iPods per person? Wouldn't something like "153 iPods per person" actually be kind of funny? With "2.7" Bryan actually had to do MATH to show how it was an unrealistic number. Having to do MATH to understand that it's an exageration is supposed to be satire?

As I said, if it IS a joke it's done very poorly.

I have a freind that works at CompUSA and another that works at an Apple store. When I asked them how they were doing selling merchandise, the Apple freind said it was selling well. The CompUSA guy said they would have "had an easier time keeping crack in stock". That warms my heart.

He can't be serious. Why would Philips want to buy Apple for $80 if the company is failing. Is he hinting at a joint venture between Philips and Apple?

Right around the 2.6 iPods per person comment it was obvious this article was intended to be humerous. Given that we have established this fact, does this really count as a death knell?

that we Mackies used to call Wintel folks humorless (among other things). The whole article was written with tongue firmly in cheek. READ IT ALL!

To TMO Editor: you should know better than to publish this as deth knell #44. Jeez...

TMO made me read an article I could easily have done without … None of the content in the whole piece is serious, except maybe the stock values mentioned, which might be worth considering. His setting of an expected $80 value on AAPL totally contradicts the commentary and seems pretty bullish to me (that’s a 25% upgrade from today’s closing !)… Why would investors keep bidding such high prices if the iPod were sitting on store shelves ? I know they are often crazy, but usually, with Apple, it is in the other direction: sell your stock every time Apple announces a profitable quarter …
The whole piece is in the same type of tongue-in-cheek (read Sirius or HP as well …), outrageous, not-very-funny kind of humorous …
Not worthy of ADKC rating …
Sorry iJack, looks like I was writing my rant while you posted yours
Note to Bryan: you probably boosted his readership by a factor of 10 … and I wonder how many flames in his email … ?!?!?

Sarcasm is not satire. That guy rates "dork"!

I read through his entire piece quite carefully because I also thought he may have been joking. However, nothing else was remotely funny or silly, and he compared this year's predictions to last year's, even rating his own misses and hits. One doesn't look for where one was right and wrong when you are joking around in the first place.

To me, that said he was being serious about the predictions, even if he tried to use humor to make some of his points.

Also, I believe his exaggerations about Apple were intended to drive home his point, and were not subtle attempts at humor.

Mind you, I was wrong before...once before...and I could be wrong here, too.

Seriously, though, I respect the opinions of those who think it was all a joke, but I personally do not believe that to be the case.

Thanks for comments!

Bryan
Editor
TMO

FUD read about the man "Markman is co-inventor on two Microsoft patents". So obviously he has an hidden agenda. Or subconciusly wants MS to succed and Apple to fail...

/macmicke

First of read about Mark : "on D. Markman is publisher of StockTactics Advisor, an independent weekly investment newsletter" Then go to his newsletter and read further about him :"Markman is co-inventor on two Microsoft patents..." And more: "He was managing editor and columnist at MSN Money from 1997 to 2002..." Well in my eyes His agenda is spreading fud about companies he doesnt want people to invest in. Trying to make his own prophesies come true. And at the same time he has an intresst in MS and its success. And right now the war between Apple and MS is in the musics area...

Apple is already grossing more than the GDP of several developing nations! and in fact is almost a small developed nation...

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Bryan wrote:
I read through his entire piece quite carefully because I also thought he may have been joking. However, nothing else was remotely funny or silly...

The hit retail phenomenon of the year is Build-a-Bear Workshop (BBW:NYSE - commentary - research), which went public at $20 in November and rises to $60 by the end of 2005. The teddy-bear customization chain rides a wave of new popularity after it introduces iBear -- a stuffed animal with built-in satellite radio, MP3 player, cell phone and digital camera.

If the author did his research correctly, he would realise that although Philips is an electronics giant, they are actually not profitable in their CE (consumer electronics) division which accounts for most of their revenues - only their medical division makes money at present....

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Guest wrote:
If the author did his research correctly, he would realise that although Philips is an electronics giant, they are actually not profitable in their CE (consumer electronics) division which accounts for most of their revenues - only their medical division makes money at present....

Well, that's not quite true. I don't know if it's "CE" or not, but their TV's, radios, coffee makers, electric razors, toasters, and lightbulbs, etc., do very well in the EC and much of that gear is branded and sold here in the U.S. as Norelco.

Philips also sell EC countries a whole bunch of defence electronics and gear.

Christ! Doesn't anyone around here have a sense of humor? The WSJ writer intended to be tongue-in-cheek. But, predictably, the clueless, starting with the person who posted this tripe, are piling on him. Only someone completely humor-impaired could misconstrue what was said as an attack on Apple. The remarks were actually a nod to the success of the iPod. It embarrasses me to share owning Apple products with the idiots displaying their ignorance here.

Well its pretty obvious that its a joke. Maybe the Death Knell Counter uses a short instead of a long to store the number of minutes since the last death knell so this story was just a way to keep the TMO web server from crashing.

Quote

Bryan wrote:
I read through his entire piece quite carefully because I also thought he may have been joking. However, nothing else was remotely funny or silly, and he compared this year's predictions to last year's, even rating his own misses and hits. One doesn't look for where one was right and wrong when you are joking around in the first place.

I agree. Under the scenario mentioned Apple would be acquired at a 25% premium to current trading levels. I've started a topic on whether or not Apple should accept an $80 per share offer in the Apple Finance Board forum.

Many may not like the idea of Apple being sold, but what would be in the best interest of shareholders if an $80 per share offer came along?

Can Apple be reasonably expected to follow-up the success of the iPod with products that will add another 25% or more to shareholder value within the next 12 months?

iPod phenomenon is not sufficient to push AAPL over $80. Increased Mac sales, sale of another big-hit device/application and success of the wireless broadband strategy will.

If Apple has no more idea after iPod, $80 is a good price to let go.

Apple will never be bought or bailed out as long as Steve Jobs is in charge. Apple success is so tied to Jobs vision and ego, the are odds of him being miffed and leaving apple after such a "bail-out" becuase he wouldnt want o be 2nd fidle. He is leadership in running Apple is as much about him being satified with this "hobby" of directing one of the most exciting tech companies around. If he is no longer happy, he does have Pixar to run. This would leave the buyer/Partner holding a company adrift it also gives Apple protection from ANY hostile take-over.


And what would Philips gain from Apple that Philips NEEDS so bad to offset that risk? The long touted IBM rumors for last decade make more sense than a anything else.

if you do some basic maths it is easy to see that the population of america is less than 1/25 of the world population and although many others may be below the poverty line it still leaves huge room for expansion and ipods are selling well everywhere it seems.

Well, the stock is over $81 now. Philips?

<crickets>

5 million iPods sold in one quarter, how much traction do you need philips? I think you jumped the gun on this one and just shot yourself in the foot so to speak. It's end of April now and even it's latest rendition of the iPod, the iPod shuffle already has 43% of the flash player market in 3 months. All the others still have at least 70%. There's your traction.