Not sure what to make of this...I checked the apple site for iphone availability and it shows a lot of stores (especially in California) sold out of the 8GB iphone.

Any rumors that we'll see a bump up in memory-- "twice the memory, same price"? personally, i'd like to see a price cut....



http://www.apple.com/retail/iphone/availability.php

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blue sequoia wrote:
Not sure what to make of this...I checked the apple site for iphone availability and it shows a lot of stores (especially in California) sold out of the 8GB iphone.

Any rumors that we'll see a bump up in memory-- "twice the memory, same price"? personally, i'd like to see a price cut....



http://www.apple.com/retail/iphone/availability.php

Good catch!

Let's see what tomorrow brings. It could be something and it could be nothing.

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blue sequoia wrote:
Not sure what to make of this...I checked the apple site for iphone availability and it shows a lot of stores (especially in California) sold out of the 8GB iphone.

Any rumors that we'll see a bump up in memory-- "twice the memory, same price"? personally, i'd like to see a price cut....



http://www.apple.com/retail/iphone/availability.php

Definitely could be the case. Many many stores out of the 8GB. A few are out of 16GB too. Last week when I looked, all stores had stock of all phones. It may possibly be that Apple stores have gotten little inventory as supply went into filling the channel. I have been seeing demand shift from 16GB towards 8GB. I get the feeling that demand has risen from the value-oriented, new-to-apple consumer, ones less likely to fight the crowds present soon after release day. Potential those who have been influenced from seeing friends with new iPhones. It's hard to say. Just some thoughts.

We'll likely have a much better grasp of the situation in the coming days as inventory either improves or continues to dry up.

Great observation.

As of 12:30 CDT- Apple's website shows 46/190 stores with 8GB stock, or 25%. Only 5 stores are out of the 16GB White.

Only 2 in CA have 8GB models. Doesn't appear inventory improved any from yesterday. In fact, got worse.

Interesting. Wonder if AT&T stores are experiencing the same.

I think as a minimum it shows that Apple will book most all the revenue for the Iphones made to date, since they are not sitting in inventory at Apple stores. In my mind this strengthens the case for 8 M for the Qtr.

Best Buy effect?

Face it, how many people live within an hours drive of an Apple store, maybe 40% of the USA? { I mean a REAL hours drive, the one we actually face, traffic, lights, etc. NOT the hypothetical coverage charts that are so often used. }

Toss in a thousand BB stores, and channel fill them, and you have a completely different dynamic.

All things being equal, would you rather go to an ATT store, and buy ONLY the iPhone, whereas you can go to the Best Buy and get the phone, cases, and check out all the optional things that are out there to compliment the phone?

The other thing to keep in mind, is the DEMAND was actually throttled by people locked into existing contracts with penalty fees to exit out. As those rotate off, that provides a continual stream of "potentials" that can buy iPhones without getting whacked by their current carrier. Given that MOST people today have cellphones, I suspect that "I would buy one, BUT for the penalty clauses of my current carrier" is larger than most folks thought.

Of course, with the utter collapse of the pricing for NAND memory, adding another 8G can be done at the manufacturing level for around $15, almost inconsequential if you can mark the product up $50 or so, or just make things more attractive at the same price for higher memory.

Buyer psychology:
Previous owners and savy tech buyers realized that 16G was a wiser choice, in light of the App Store's bounty and the personal need for more movies, music, etc. that experience has taught us to want.
Thus the initial buyers were the most ardent, and wanted 16G phones.

New adopters, and those less aware of the App Store's 3,000+ items stepped in line later and bought the $199 iPhone, increasing the demand for the 8G.

Eventually there will be a 32G phone, which will totally mess with our minds.

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TanToday wrote:
Best Buy effect?

Face it, how many people live within an hours drive of an Apple store, maybe 40% of the USA? { I mean a REAL hours drive, the one we actually face, traffic, lights, etc. NOT the hypothetical coverage charts that are so often used. }

Toss in a thousand BB stores, and channel fill them, and you have a completely different dynamic.

All things being equal, would you rather go to an ATT store, and buy ONLY the iPhone, whereas you can go to the Best Buy and get the phone, cases, and check out all the optional things that are out there to compliment the phone?

The other thing to keep in mind, is the DEMAND was actually throttled by people locked into existing contracts with penalty fees to exit out. As those rotate off, that provides a continual stream of "potentials" that can buy iPhones without getting whacked by their current carrier. Given that MOST people today have cellphones, I suspect that "I would buy one, BUT for the penalty clauses of my current carrier" is larger than most folks thought.

Of course, with the utter collapse of the pricing for NAND memory, adding another 8G can be done at the manufacturing level for around $15, almost inconsequential if you can mark the product up $50 or so, or just make things more attractive at the same price for higher memory.

I think the adding of memory has little to do with cost and almost all to do with board space. With SJ obsession with thin, the engineers need a higher capacity in the same PCB space. Looking at the teardown from the 8GB touch they are using a single 64 Gbit chip for 8GB I would assume the 16GB is using a single 128Gbit Chip which is the largest chip currently built and the 32GB would use two chips. The Iphone design has room for a single memory model so unless they redesign the board or flash is produced in a higher density then 128Gbit the Iphone will be stuck at 16GB. That said I would expect a 256Gbit in 2009 since capacity doubles about every year.

It looks like the 8 GB 3G iPhone shortage at Apple retail stores is continuing into the weekend. My WAG is a reposition of the 8 GB models to other distribution venues (BBY and T).

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DawnTreader wrote:
It looks like the 8 GB 3G iPhone shortage at Apple retail stores is continuing into the weekend. My WAG is a reposition of the 8 GB models to other distribution venues (BBY and T).

Sure does. 46 stores had stock Thursday night, and tonight that number appears to have dropped to 36. Also, 16GB White stock outs - increased from 5 stores to 10. All same stores, no new shipments it looks like.

Apple store here has been out all week as far as I know. I asked BBY manager at a store close to AAPL, said he hasn't really noticed any lift on the surface, but told me he could give me firm numbers tomorrow.

I definitely agree that Apple might be directing demand to BBY and T so that those partners experience some foot traffic and firm sales. At least for the onset. Apple stores cannibalize a good amount of demand from BBY & T locations in proximity.

It may also be the supply diverted into the channel for BBY openings couple weeks ago that resulted in Apple stores not receiving shipments to match demand.

Certainly makes sense that BBY and T would see a disproportionate amount of 8GB stock due to the differing customer demographic between those two and and Apple stores.

The scarcity of some iPhone models may also be due to something they are doing with the power adapters. Since they started a recall, they need to pack the new ones with the new iPhones they sell, and maybe they started later on the 8GB packages.

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lulli wrote:
The scarcity of some iPhone models may also be due to something they are doing with the power adapters. Since they started a recall, they need to pack the new ones with the new iPhones they sell, and maybe they started later on the 8GB packages.

When you insert logic into the discussion of a topic that involves speculation and intrigue you take much of the fun out of it.

Seriously, that's a plausible reason.

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turleymuller wrote:


Certainly makes sense that BBY and T would see a disproportionate amount of 8GB stock due to the differing customer demographic between those two and and Apple stores.

I'd like to know the sales ratio at the Apple retails stores of the 16 GB model versus the 8 GB model. It would make sense T and BBY would see more traffic in the 8 GB model.

Our man P.E.D. has picked up this thread.

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DawnTreader wrote:

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turleymuller wrote:


Certainly makes sense that BBY and T would see a disproportionate amount of 8GB stock due to the differing customer demographic between those two and and Apple stores.

I'd like to know the sales ratio at the Apple retails stores of the 16 GB model versus the 8 GB model. It would make sense T and BBY would see more traffic in the 8 GB model.

That's a good point. I would like to know too. At launch, 16GB was stocking out way ahead of 8GB. Don't know what the ratio of inventory was, but I would suspect that that Apple stocked more 16GB due to the higher ASP. Surveys point to higher demand for 16GB opening weekend as well. But since then, it could have shifted some, or maybe not.

Store manager at BBY said he didn't see any lift this week at his store when the Apple store was out of 8GB. Don't believe the usual Apple store customer is price sensitive. "out of the 8?, give me the 16". People rather have more storage than not enough, thus I think more sales would be lost from people wanting a 16. but only have 8GB stock, than those who want 8GB, but only have 16GB stock.

For people who are price sensitive, I would think the reverse is true, which would be more prevalent at BBY and T.

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artman1033 wrote:
Our man P.E.D. has picked up this thread.

UPDATE: Either Apple shipped a ton of iPhones overnight or someone fixed its availability widget, because by 9 p.m. Saturday the situation had reversed: all but 14 Apple stores now report that they have 8 GB iPhones in stock.

So it must have just been the new power adapter was going to be ready, and it was better not to continue shipping the old one.

Well, It does look like there is solid demand for the 8GB. As stores sold out dropped from 153 to 13 Saturday night, they have increased Sunday night up to 40.

Interesting to note that of the the 13 stores sold out on Sat night, more than half of those had inventory the day before when 153 stores were out. Also, 5 stores that also had 8GB on Friday night that still had them Sat night were sold out Sunday. Assuming Apple still keeps supply in Fort Worth/Memphis and fedex overnight,, stores should be getting replenished the next day. Yet, If the sold out number were to continue to creep upward, then I would think that would indicate demand is outstripping production.

While stores without 16 GB black has only gone from 1-2-4, White models went from 10-7-17. ( Fri-Sat-Sun)

It may be that there is a large number of buyers who are business oriented; that is, they aren't going to be loading the phone up with music and videos, posibly not even games. They want the iPhone as a phone, as an internet portal and for e-mail. 8 Gigs would serve this group just fine.

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willrob wrote:
It may be that there is a large number of buyers who are business oriented; that is, they aren't going to be loading the phone up with music and videos, posibly not even games. They want the iPhone as a phone, as an internet portal and for e-mail. 8 Gigs would serve this group just fine.

without videos, 8G should be fine.