| International Data Corporation has released its projections for growth in the computer industry in 1999 and Apple shows up twice in the report.
In Japan, growth is projected to be below the worldwide average at 6%, but IDC cited the popularity of the iMac as part of the growth Japan will see. According to IDC:
"Japan is showing further signs of waking up and is currently undergoing a "soft" rebound, largely based on strong consumer demand. Apple's iMac continues to draw strong consumer attention. Prices on older PC models dropped in January, and a slew of new offerings hit the market in February. Year-over-year Q1 1999 unit growth is projected at 6%. Unlike other regions, Japan is expected to show positive sequential growth (6.2%) this quarter."
IDC also said that Apple may benefit from the world-leading growth in consumer purchases in the US. According to IDC:
IDC believes the vendors that will likely gain market share on a sequential basis this quarter will be those pegged to consumer growth in the United States, Western Europe, and Asia/Pacific, including Japan. In the United States, Gateway 2000, Compaq, eMachines, and possibly Apple will benefit from consumer growth."
Worldwide growth for all of 1999 is expected to be 14.3% for the entire industry although Q1 sales will decline over Q4 of 1998 by 14.7%. This is normal for this part of the year.
On the slightly bad side, IDC is not projecting Apple to be in the top 5 computer vendors for 1999. Compaq, Dell, Gateway, IBM, and Hewlett-Packard are projected to make up the top 5.
The Mac Observer Spin: It's good news for Apple when analysts acknowledge potential growth for the company. As pointed out in yesterday's Apple Trader "Apple Stock: All Good Things Come To Those Who Wait," much of the market likes to pretend that Apple does not exist. Fortunately IDC is looking at the facts (at least from our perspective). Of course, the report does not guarantee that Apple will actually see growth. In fact, Apple is cited as only "possibly" seeing growth in the consumer market, but we think that IDC is right on the money except that Apple may be able to break into the Top 5 club. Time will tell.
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