Can we add this to the Death Knell Counter? Please?

Well, with the case of Steve Jobs getting cancer, "death" really was the operative word. Oh, and as a side note, when you google for "death knell" TMO comes up first.

This is typical CNN reporting: CNN never asks hard questions. CNN = the Compliant News Network.

CNN=complacent news ninnies

If you want to rant, there is a forum for it. There is also a forum for WN/P/P. Let's stay on the topic guys.

There is a significant difference between vapors and component suppliers having difficulty meeting demand.

Look at what IS shipping, but has back orders:

iPod mini - huge demand with problems from HD supplier.
G5 2.5 PowerMac - IBM working to get G5 chips out to meet demand.
AirPort Express - French site said 3-4 week delay. I ordered mine on Day 1

Coming Soon

30" Display - Needs graphics card that is due end of August
G5 iMac - See comment above re IBM

Available Now

All notebooks
New PowerMacs, except 2.5
New iPod "rebuilt from the ground up"
iSight

Vaporware?

Tiger - actually it's there, just not ready for release
G5 PowerBook - all right, that's one you can count.

Sure, the next big thing (30" displays, G5 iMac) ARE just around the corner, but the corner is about the end of this month. There are teams from IBM and Apple working on the next big things further down the road, great designers working on how to excite us with new products, and programmers that can make Bill Gates feel impotent. I'm not concerned about vapors at Apple. It's a term that is better used to describe Longhorn.

It's called the Reality Distortion Field:
- 3GHz by June 2004
- Worlds fastest PC
- You own the downloaded iTunes songs
- G3 will be fully compatible with OS X
- iPod battery designed to last life of product
- Buy OS X it's faster than OS 9
- Free iTools
- Buy a Mac get lifetime customer support

Why can't iLemmings see through the RDF, one falsehood after another.

I think I'll sign up to be a so-called analyst so I can deliver these catchy sound bites like "vapors, a lot of promise and hope." I'd hardly call last quarter's $2B in revenue "vapor." Stocks ride on people being confident about the future of the company, and if you look at the numbers, all of the key metrics, including revenue, income and margins, are going up.

A P/E of 36 seems about right for a tech company that people think will keep growing and innovating. Compare to some others P/E ratios like MSFT at 37, INTC at 22 and IBM at 18 and the ratio seems about in line with the percieved growth and/or innovation of each company.

If Steve did go away, for whatever reason, I'd hope they'd keep some of the other key players on board, like Jonathan Ives, since superior industrial design is one thing that sets Apple apart from the rest of the wanna-bes.

What is the deal with all these "analysts" hounding on Apple? Most of this tripe has no factual basis, yet it gets printed. Apple ain't perfect, but you'd get the impression that they're all smoke and mirrors, judging from some of these journalists.

Oh well....some of them seem to write a positive thing once in a while.

Apple has roughly $13 in cash supporting every share of stock or about $5 billion and the company is debt free.

The company is realizing double digit revenue and earnings growth each fiscal quarter.

IMHO AAPL is undervalued at less than $49 per share. What is causing Wall Street challenges in arriving at accurate valuation models is the lack of forward-looking estimates from management and needed changes in the valuation product mix.

The Mac is still Apple's revenue engine. But what's driving the industry-leading gross margins are the "beyond the box" products such as the iSight, iPod, Airport, .Mac, etc.

There isn't a competitor among the major PC makers that has the same high yield per customer as Apple. Ignoring the "beyond the box" contributions and looking only at Mac sales will lead to gross undervaluations of the company.

Further, as Apple transitions to dual or multi-division operations the valuations will need to take into account the nascent digital music player market as a significant contributor to revenue and earnings moving forward.

To call Apple's valuation "vaporware" is nothing more than a press play and the analyst knows it.

As interest rates rise so will Apple's earnings even without additional Mac sales. The successful introduction of the G5 iMac is at this time the only real question with regard to Apple's near-term performance. Solving the supply issues on the iPod ahead of the Christmas quarter will also add luster to AAPL's share price performance.

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kenaustus wrote:
Vaporware?

Tiger - actually it's there, just not ready for release
G5 PowerBook - all right, that's one you can count.

Can you really call it vaporware when it was never announced/promised?

Of the dozens of stories I've seen today, they all seem to have one thing in common. Each one cites some speculation of what might happen to Apple or Pixar if something happens to Steve. There is no evidence of any analysis. It's as if Apple or Pixar were some kind of one-man, sole proprietor operation.

Now, there are literally thousands of companies in this country. We're more than half way through the year, and out of those thousands of companies, I've got to think that there has been at least one or two CEOs that has been in need of some serious medical attention (whether from physical illness or from accidental injury), but I cannot recall hearing any similar "analyst" reports about the future of those businesses.

If had any of these "analysts" managing my portfolio, I think I'd be in the market for a new team of advisors.

Wall Street and "analysts" just don't/can't/won't understand Apple. Apple doesn't fall into any understandable model to them, so they've always been skeptical.

As far as all these "analysts" coming out and predicting or hinting at doom - they've always done that, and they've always been wrong. See, if an analyst predicts that Apple stock is overvalued and will fall drastically, they're basically placing a bet that it will. If the stock tanks, they look like a sage and reap the benefits (greater prestige, more clients). If the stock doesn't, nobody really remembers. It's a win-win for them to bash Apple.

It really is baffling to me that they can question Apple right now - one of the only tech companies that is doing well and completely liquid. But, you know - this is just another reminder of how a great many people will never "get" Apple - whether they're consumers or industry analysts.

I haven't bothered to look at RC's post, the banality of it may actually make me yawn. I think (s)he has much more in common with the analyst in question than just a lack of belief in a healthy future for Apple.

Hold on...Scroll up...View...(yawn)...Close. Well, my head didn't explode from the extremity of the boredom it induced. Not quite. Wouldn't bother opening it if I were you, though, it's not worth the effort. RC used to at least have an argument and an entertainment factor. Most of it's turned to vapor, empty promises and nothing round the corner.

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AFCdtLoeb wrote:
If you want to rant, there is a forum for it. There is also a forum for WN/P/P. Let's stay on the topic guys.

Those comments were on topic, AFC, at least so much as CNN was source of the article in question, and the quality of reporting is relevant.

FWIW: While I disagree with their assessment of the network as a whole, this particular article was shoddy, at best.

Look at me! I'm the off topic police!

There, I said it

I think this analyst is way off line with his catchy one liner, but face it while Apple is not a one man show, Steve Jobs certainly is not your run of the mill CEO and his importance to the success of Apple is certainly bigger than most CEOs.

CNN=Communist News Network

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AFCdtLoeb wrote:
Can we add this to the Death Knell Counter? Please?

I've noticed over these past many months people saying time and again that Steve Job's is not all that.

Even saying that Job's was 'Holding Apple back" with his arrogance.

I think I've seen several posts that that effect on the web...

Yet here we have the world tripping over itself now that Steve is ill...Major new organizations and business analysis worrying no only about Apple's future without Steve, but Pixar's as well....Odd that.

"All glory and praise to Allah"

Cleric jim

CNN = Corporate Nonsense Nincompoops

CNN=better on its worst day than Fox News on its best

Ok, I agree that analysts are idiots when it comes to putting a dollar value on Apple.

However, let's just theorize for a moment... Steve Jobs is dead. Who's at the helm? Who continues to motivate (and at times, berate) the designers, programmers, thinkers behind the products that are Apple? Anyone? Anyone?

Can you, in your right mind, take Steve Jobs and Bill Gates and switch them and have the same world we have today? No way. Bill is a programmer, a ruthless businessman. Steve may also be somewhat of a ruthless businessman, but he beats Gates in spades with his ability to inspire (squeeze?) the best out of the people he has working for him. Steve is NOT a programmer.

I use the term programmer above because in real world cases, if you take a programmer and a designer and set them side by side to design a website for the same company, with the same color scheme and logo, you will see two different sites emerge. The programmers site will be navigable, but probably a little square. The designers site will show links between the color scheme and the mission of the company. And so forth and so on.

Visionary? Jobs. Emulator? Gates. And though one "rules the computing world" the other, most definitely, give the "ruler" something to lust after day after day after day.

So what if Jobs keeled over today? Who's the replacement?

I believe that is what is at the heart of the SERIOUS, VALID analyst in terms of looking at Apple longterm.

Check some history too with the auto industry. It wasn't until someone with the passion and zeal and vision for the mustang came along that finally pulled that particular car out of near death to renewed stardom.

Lack of vision, leadership, passion, and an ability to manage others into a common goal under those can cripple any project, any product, and certainly any business. And therefore, cripple its income, and its value to the consumer and business sectors.

Just a thought.

- - really does not make it quite so fearmongering and FUDish as the comments here have made it sound. The author does have a quite valid point when he says that a lot of Apple's future is tied to the strong personality of Steve Jobs, and it is quite valid to take events such as his cancer operation as a "What if?".

However, any company's CEO could be killed crossing the street tomorrow, so it really shouldn't take an event such as surgery to realize that fates sometimes turn on odd events - - its just as statistically (un)likely for Bill Gates to suddenly cop a confession on his illegal monopoly practices and apologize to Steve and Apple with a $25B "will you forgive me?" peace offering.


-hh