Apple Computer's product availability has improved across the board, with the exception of the iPod U2 Special Edition, according to a Wall Street analyst.
In a research note obtained by The Mac Observer, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster told clients Thursday that Apple had reduced lead times, particularly for the Mac mini and iPod shuffle, which were until recently heavily backordered. He also noted that Apple had eight of the top 10 music players at Amazon.com, and that Tiger pre-orders was the number one selling software title, outselling even seasonal mega-seller TurboTax.
Mr. Munster told clients that:
The 1.8GHz Power Mac G5 estimated ship time declined to same business day from 5-7 days.
Both versions of the Mac mini decreased from 1-2 weeks to 5-7 days.
Both versions of the iPod Shuffle (512 megabyte and 1 gigabyte) declined to same business day from 1-3 days and 5-7 days respectively.
The estimated days to ship the PowerBook G4 has decreased from 4-6 days to 1-2 days.
The sole exception to having improved estimated shipping time was the U2 iPod Special Edition, which Mr. Munster speculated might be related to strong U2 Vertigo 2005 Concert Tour ticket sales.
Apple's delivery times are often watched by analysts, especially among its most popular products. This has been particularly the case with Apple's iPod product line, where massive success has come with the kinds of wait times that can drive customers to competing products. Many of Apple's most popular products are now shipping same business day.
Mr. Munster also made note of something often reported by Mac Web sites, that Apple's position in retailing giant Amazon's top selling lists remained strong. Apple currently has four of the top 10 best selling computers, eight of the top 10 best selling music players, and the number one selling software title.
He wrote, "Apple's OS X 10.4 (Tiger) operating system software, which has not been released yet, was the number 1 seller in the Software Top Seller category. Though it is hard to determine how the rank translates to revenue, it is safe to say that the success of the Tiger pre-order was a surprise to us, given that it is outselling the seasonally strong TurboTax software."
Mr. Munster maintained his Outperform rating on Apple's stock, which means he expects the stock to outperform the broader market. He also reiterated his target price of US$50 for AAPL.
Apple was trading down in the lower $42 per share range in Thursday morning trading, in moderate volume.
*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a small share in APPL stock that was not an influence in the creation of this article.
If you are interested in Apple's stock, join our forum members in the Apple Finance Boards, a moderated forum for Apple Investors and people who are interested in Apple's financial dealings. For other stories regarding Apple's stock activity, visit our updated Apple Stock Watch Special Report.
I meant to tell you this for a while but I faltered assuming that you may live in the UK and that the Apple stock there may indeed be under the APPL symbol as you declare in your disclaimer. If instead this is a typo I would recommend to correct it to the US listing under the symbol AAPL.
Take care.
Can you believe that it is the best selling software on Amazon before the release date is announced? A rather powerful indication that it is going to blow out the door when it hits the market. I ready to order the family pack on the first day (I have 5 Macs to upgrade) and will be interested to see how long it takes to ship.
*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a small share in APPL stock that WAS an influence in the creation of this article.
This author gets is all wrong. Apple hasn't increased production so the only explanation is that demand for these products has fallen substantially. Once the dedicated Apple-heads got theirs, Apple is left holding the bag with unsold inventory.
And with regard to Tiger preorders on Amazon, sure it is selling better than TurboTax. Taxes in the U.S. are due in two weeks, so everyone who wanted TurboTax has already bought it. A fairer comparason would be to compare Tiger preorders with Longhorn preorders (if that were possible). Longhorn would outsell Tiger 10,000 to one.
And with regard to Tiger preorders on Amazon, sure it is selling better than TurboTax. Taxes in the U.S. are due in two weeks, so everyone who wanted TurboTax has already bought it.
lol Where do you live? Here in America we have a little thing called "procrastination." It's the #1 hobby last time I checked. You may be a responsible person that gets things done early but I'm sad to report you're in the minority.
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Anonymous wrote: A fairer comparason would be to compare Tiger preorders with Longhorn preorders (if that were possible).
Yeah...but it's not possible. I'd sell a lot of flying cars if I had those too.
when it has 8 of top ten players on amazon? well i guess creative must really be hurting. seriously go to amazon any hour of day, their stats are updated hourly, Apple has at least 5 of top ten and up to 10 of top 20 at any given period. There is no unsold inventory when you are selling that much.
As for LongHorn, that is Apple to Oranges, as OBVIOUSLY there will be more demand, but it has no reflection on Apple profitability.
Go to the Apple store in Bethesda maryland where on weekends its so filled with shoppers you would think it was day after Thanksgiving. Easily pushing fire code limits. Go any other store in that Very Profiable mall, and no one pacsk people in llike Apple products. Dont believe me? Someone from MD can back me up im sure.
And when Apple reports its earnings in April, and you are shown to be wrong are intellectually honest enough to admit that?
There was piles of ipods sitting unsold during christmas, and by all accounts, other than your opinion based on no facts or research, they have been selling more.
When you can back up anything you say with facts, and no opinion, you might have something worthwhile to say.
Mr. Munster looked up product availability on the store.apple.com web site and a sales listing on Amazon.com site and issued reported on that.
I hope Mr. Munster's customers are satisified that he is working hard for their money!
Hey, I'm thinking of put together a new research service where I actually read MacObserver and report on what stories are published. I think I'll call it the Wall Street MacObserver Insider Daily Tracker (WSMIDT). I bet I can charge a lot to all those people interested enough to want to know what is on MacObserver and lazy enough not to go to the website and find out for themselves.
Earth to Mac worshipers, the Mac mini is not going to save the Mac. Check Apple's website, none of the top sellers are Macs! 90% of the top sellers are PC products like the iPod! After all the hype, the truth about the Mac mini has come out, an underpowered toy that doesn't even meet the minimum requirements for Doom 3.
RealityCheck wrote: Earth to Mac worshipers, the Mac mini is not going to save the Mac. Check Apple's website, none of the top sellers are Macs! 90% of the top sellers are PC products like the iPod! After all the hype, the truth about the Mac mini has come out, an underpowered toy that doesn't even meet the minimum requirements for Doom 3.
So...you're saying that the only way Apple can sell MORE Macs is if they sell LESS iPods?
I've heard of the "halo effect" but I had no idea these two products were so closely linked! I have to admit, I don't really understand how this works, but I'm sure you've got it all worked out.
Sorry, RC, looks like you'll need to increase your Ritalin dosage. If you click on the Top Sellers link on the Apple Store, you'll see that several Macs are on the list, including the Mac mini, PowerBook G4 and iBook G4.
No, they aren't in the top ten, but one could speculate that top selling items tend towards the less expensive Mac products. All of the products in the top ten are under $350.
Everytime I read TMO, I wonder if it's even worth commenting on some of the stuff that RealityCheck writes. Since work is a little slow today, here's my two cents. (Which happens to be two cents more than RC's weekly paycheck.)
On Amazon.com stats...
Tiger is selling well since there's a lower price on the product. The Apple Store will retail the product at $129, and certain resellers will offer other incentives. Also, not everyone lives close to an Apple Retail store, so most are going to order (or preorder) this product through an online seller. TurboTax and a computer operating system are two different products - I'm unsure why the analyst would even comment on that. Also, you can efile through TurboTax's website for free - meaning you DON'T have to buy the product to begin with if you have a very simple return (1040). Just a dumb comparison.
On Mac sales...
I'm not sure why most people would think Apple's computer sales would be ranked very high on Amazon to begin with. It's a pretty mute point to look and say, "See, look, Apples suck, they're not in the top ten!". Come on.
On going from backlogged orders to next day supply...
I think the poster said, 'try using some common sense.' Common sense is usually a substitution for ignorance, actually. Shuffles and other iPods went from 3-5 weeks, to 2-4 weeks, to 1 week, to within business days during a 1 to 2 month period.
Here's an example - ever order a pizza, and they say it'll take 30 minutes until it's delivered. Then, 15 minutes later, it's at your doorstep. "Man, they must not have been as busy as they thought!" NO, NO, NO. The pizza place overpromised the delivery time because they wanted to give themselves some cushion and also be able to impress the customer if the pizza arrived early. This is the same with order delivery times. Quote 4 weeks, delivery in 3 weeks. The customer is more impressed and more likely to do business again.
Instead of "TiPO," it would have been much more apt (not to mention witty) if the previous guest had suggested the potential name change for this site to be "TyPO."
(Sorry TMO, you're a great resource, I just couldn't resist!... )
CloseViewName:Intruder- TMO Mac SpecialistPosts: 2928Joined: 07 Jul 2004 Thu Mar 31, 2005 3:49 pmSubject:
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Guest wrote: A fairer comparason would be to compare Tiger preorders with Longhorn preorders (if that were possible). Longhorn would outsell Tiger 10,000 to one.
Funny...people are starting to question whether or not Longhorn is worth the wait, and what incentive there is to actually "upgrade." And this is from a PRO- Microsoft site (although I am seeing more XServe ads at the top lately). So, 10,000 to 1? Care to make bets? Apple sells 1M copies of Tiger, you gotta sell 10B copies of Longhorn. I'll gladly take you up on that bet.
CloseViewName:Guest Thu Mar 31, 2005 4:47 pmSubject:
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Intruder wrote:
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Guest wrote: A fairer comparason would be to compare Tiger preorders with Longhorn preorders (if that were possible). Longhorn would outsell Tiger 10,000 to one.
Funny...people are starting to question whether or not Longhorn is worth the wait, and what incentive there is to actually "upgrade." And this is from a PRO- Microsoft site (although I am seeing more XServe ads at the top lately). So, 10,000 to 1? Care to make bets? Apple sells 1M copies of Tiger, you gotta sell 10B copies of Longhorn. I'll gladly take you up on that bet.
Well, of course if you are upgrading from a crappy OS to what Longhorn is supposed to live up to then yeah, agreed. You also have to look at the market share base when talking upgrades to OS's and ratios for the same. If I was forced EVERY day to work in Windows 2000 or Windows XP and the upgrade would give me a more stable, virus free (yeah, right) environment I'd the first be in line for the upgrade. Oh yeah, wait...that's right I am and do work on a ThinkPad (boy, is there i missnomer). At home, I have a dual G5 1.8 with OS 10.2. Do I have to upgrade for a great OS? No, I'm already there. Am I going to upgrade for the bells and whistles Tiger is going to offer? You bet. Somepeople wont but my point is, sure, place your bet...but talk apples to apples and oranges to oranges...ya fruit.
Guest wrote: This author gets is all wrong. Apple hasn't increased production so the only explanation is that demand for these products has fallen substantially. Once the dedicated Apple-heads got theirs, Apple is left holding the bag with unsold inventory.
RealityCheck wrote: Earth to Mac worshipers, the Mac mini is not going to save the Mac. Check Apple's website, none of the top sellers are Macs! 90% of the top sellers are PC products like the iPod! After all the hype, the truth about the Mac mini has come out, an underpowered toy that doesn't even meet the minimum requirements for Doom 3.
1) The Mac is already selling well.
2) Try running Doom 3 on a low-end PC without pulling your hair out in frustration.
CloseViewName:Guest Thu Mar 31, 2005 5:20 pmSubject:
Good lord, the Windows zealots are actually trying to spin Apple's increasing success into a sign that its doomed. Well, I guess they have to work with what they're given. The only news about Apple lately has been good news, after all. Poor, poor liars. Things have just gone from bad to worse for them.
"This author gets is all wrong. Apple hasn't increased production so the only explanation is that
demand for these products has fallen substantially. Once the dedicated Apple-heads got theirs,
Apple is left holding the bag with unsold inventory. "
You'd be absolutely right if you weren't lying. Unfortunately for you, though, Apple's rankings on Amazon prove without even a possibility of doubt that demand for their products hasn't dropped off. And since demand hasn't dropped off, the only explaination is that Apple has indeed ordered an increase in production. You lose.
"And with regard to Tiger preorders on Amazon, sure it is selling better than TurboTax. Taxes in the
U.S. are due in two weeks, so everyone who wanted TurboTax has already bought it."
I guess you don't live in the United States, or have even heard of it, because the closer it gets to tax day, the bigger the mad frenzy to file taxes gets. Of course, you could be from the United States but also a complete lair. I think that's more likely.
"Mac Market share dropping to 1.5%
Which is very bad for the Mac Platform."
Except that Mac sales have been on a steady rise. Whoops! Did another fact get in your way?
"Mr. Munster looked up product availability on the store.apple.com web site and a sales listing on
Amazon.com site and issued reported on that. "
You're right, it shouldn't have been reported that Apple products are now more available, or that they're doing well on Amazon. People should go directly to store.apple.com and Amazon.com to find out the news. Oh, wait a minute, no they shouldn't. News outlets exist so people can find out a story without going directly to the source.
"Earth to Mac worshipers, the Mac mini is not going to save the Mac. Check Apple's website, none
of the top sellers are Macs! 90% of the top sellers are PC products like the iPod! After all the hype,
the truth about the Mac mini has come out, an underpowered toy that doesn't even meet the
minimum requirements for Doom 3."
The Mac Mini is in the Apple Store's list of top sellers, along with a PowerBook and an iBook. You said it wasn't. The link says you're a liar.
Also, calling the Mac Mini a toy because it can't run a certain game makes no logical sense. It's like if I called you a breakdancer because you can't breakdance. It also ignores the fact that OS X is Unix based, making it very much more serious than Windows. Coincidently, that's also why it's so much more secure.
And about the Mini being the savior of Macs, that would imply that Macs are in some kind of trouble. Which they aren't. Infact, the exact opposite is true, with sales numbers showing a steady rise in the number of Macs sold. And since the iPod Halo Effect is now proven, more iPods sold translates into more Macs sold. Man. Today's such a bad day for liars, isn't it, Reality Check?
"Dismal Mac sales is taking its toll on support."
Mac sales have been anything but dismal. Or didn't you see Apple's last quarter report? You know, the one where they experienced the greatest numbers in their entire history? I believe it was during the rise of their share price from $12 to $80+. The one that showed Mac sales improving. Or am I not supposed to mention that fact?
So far in this thread, there's been an assorted number of lying Windows worhippers and one person that doesn't understand the concept of news. Man. With opposition like that, how can Apple ever survive?
One might argue that people are clamoring for the Tiger update because there are so many insufficiencies with the present OS. That is certainly what one would read here if the preorders were for Longhorn. If 10.3 is so good, why upgrade?
CloseViewName:Guest Thu Mar 31, 2005 9:23 pmSubject: Duh?
The reason to compare Tiger sales to TurboTax is because TurboTax has year after year been in the top 5 of all packaged software sales. Granted that TurboTax builds its sales over a 4-5 month period, during which it is the top seller every month (check npd.com for broader software sales tabulations). So the point is that the Tiger pre-orders are impressive - topping TurboTax, at least at Amazon.com.
Now about the Apple Top 20: the list is ranked by unit sales, not by revenue. So, duh, the iPod, iPod mini, and iPod shuffle are selling millions of units per quarter, while the Mac sells in the 100s of thousands of units per quarter. The fact that the Mac mini even appears shows that it is selling way better than the Cube and as well as other Mac models.
Thinking before posting usually helps to cover up ignorance.
If one assumes that the Top Sellers list is listed by units sold, then the Mac mini would come in as Apple's #1 computing product, with the PowerBook and iBook not far behind.
Actually, I owned a low-end Epson not long ago. It was the worst printer I've ever owned.
agreed. don't waste your time with low-end Epson printers unless you are RealityCheck and still have a hundred years of IT experience to gain before you can start to even barely make sense.
the Canon Pixma line is cheap, yet decent quality, and their Mac driver support is nothing short of brilliant. before the trolls jump on my Canon Pixma flag waving, try the ip1500 for yourself... about $50+ us dollars, great Mac support and of course Windoze support.
epson has gone down the toilet in my books...
*fllushhhhhhhh*
CloseViewName:Intruder- TMO Mac SpecialistPosts: 2928Joined: 07 Jul 2004 Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:22 pmSubject:
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Guest wrote: One might argue that people are clamoring for the Tiger update because there are so many insufficiencies with the present OS. That is certainly what one would read here if the preorders were for Longhorn. If 10.3 is so good, why upgrade?
Or one might argue that Tiger offers some additional features (such as Spotlight, Automator, Core Video, etc...) that make it a compelling upgrade.
I don't think anybody here has ever claimed that 10.3 is perfect. No OS is. There is always room for improvement. The key here is that some are seeing the slow feature reduction occurring in Longhorn as making it no longer a compelling upgrade. XP may be "good enough" to most users when comparing the cost vs features in whatever Longhorn ends up being.
I'm a hopeless Mac supporter in need of love. No OS is perfect. There is always room for improvement - wow, I came up with that by myself! The key here is that some are seeing the slow feature reduction occurring in Longhorn as making it no longer a compelling upgrade. XP may be "good enough" to most users when comparing the cost vs features in whatever Longhorn ends up being.Note I said "whatever," as in I don't have a clue what I'm talking about.
"comparing the cost vs features in whatever Longhorn ends up being.Note I said "whatever," as in I don't have a clue what I'm talking about."
No, meaning, with good reason, "whatever is left after MS is done cutting promised features out" …
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Anonymous wrote:
A fairer comparason would be to compare Tiger preorders with Longhorn preorders (if that were possible).
Well I am sure this wouldn't be fair. What is Apple's installed user base? M$ is about 10 times the size. What would be fair is percentages and adoption rate. Let's see if LongHorn is adopted as quickly as OS X. Is it even as big of a jump as OS 9 to OS X?
> A fairer comparason would be to compare Tiger preorders with Longhorn preorders (if that were possible). Longhorn would outsell Tiger 10,000 to one.>
You'll have to wait until 2007 for---what is it?----Oh yeah---longhorn.
By then Apple will be releasing the next cat--Pussy!
You iLemmings are silly. I have a first generation iPod that is still working fine after all these years. What's wrong with Apple? How do they expect me to buy more Apple products if they keep on working? This spells doom for Apple hardware sales, you iLemmings!
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