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Vista Delay to Boost Apple, Leopard for Christmas

Vista Delay to Boost Apple, Leopard for Christmas

by , 10:20 AM EST, March 23rd, 2006

UBS analyst Ben Reitzes sees Microsoft's announcement that Windows Vista is being delayed again as bad news for Dell and a good opportunity for Apple. The continuing setbacks in the next version of Microsoft's operating system are putting PC manufacturers in a tight spot. Dell has been working to improve its position in the consumer market, and will likely see delays of its own while waiting for the consumer version of Vista.

Apple is in a much better position since it will have completed the transition to Intel processors for the Mac product line before the end of the year, eliminating concerns over "holdouts" waiting for the chip transition to complete. Mac OS X 10.5, or Leopard, is due as early as November, giving Apple another opportunity to gain market share.

Mr. Reitzes expects Apple to release Mac OS X 10.5 in time for the holiday buying season. He speculates that Apple will enhance the features in Spotlight, Dashboard, iChat, and Safari's RSS capabilities. He also expects that Leopard will include more features geared towards home digital entertainment and HD formatted content, positioning the Mac as a solid offering to consumers as they head into the holidays.

Previously, analysts were predicting a 10 percent growth in the non-Mac PC market for 2006. Microsoft's delay, however has Mr. Reitzes calling that prediction aggressive. He expects fewer and fewer consumers will buy Windows-based PCs leading up to the eventual release of Vista.

The iPod will likely remain a top gift during the holiday season. The recent addition of Quanta as a video capable iPod supplier should help Apple to meet consumer demand, leading Mr. Reitzes to speculate that concerns over supply issues are overblown.

UBS is maintaining its buy position and target value for Apple's stock at US$100. Apple is currently trading at US$60.93, down 0.74 (1.20%).


If you are interested in Apple's stock, join our forum members in the Apple Finance Boards, a moderated forum for Apple Investors and people who are interested in Apple's financial dealings. For other stories regarding Apple's stock activity, visit our updated Apple Stock Watch Special Report.

Observer Comments

Show: Subjects Only | Full Comments
Close Name:davebarnes Posts: 130 Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Subject: I predict: no effect

The average consumer has no clue about Windows Vista. (The average consumer doesn't even know what an operating system is.)
People buy Windows machines because:
1. it is what they have at work
2. it is the safe choice
3. the store doesn't sell Macs
4. Dell doesn't sell Macs
5. Macs are too expensive
6. their expert friend told them to buy Windows

The delay in Windows Vista changes none of this behavior.

,dave

Close Name:kevdo Posts: 54 Joined: 09 Dec 2004
Subject: Power users may switch

I can't say I disagree much with Dave's cogent analysis. There's a lot of sense in that list.

I think there are opportunities to convince consumers if Apple does a good job of marketing the stagnation of Windows vs. the cool new features of Leopard. But, I agree it's an uphill battle.

Also, I could see some power-users switching because of the delay in Vista. Though, I suppose most of them have already switched.

Close Name:Guest
Subject: 10.5 for Christmas?!

I don't think so.

First, consider that WWDC is in August. So, in theory, developers would have three months to prep their apps for 10.5? I don't think so.

Apple said at the last WWDC that they were looking at early 2007, so I think that's when Leopard will ship.

Close Name:macinnerd Posts: 1748 Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Subject:

Apple also said that they would set up the Leopard releace to coincide with the Vista release. So 10.5 in January is possible.

On the other hand, look what happened when Apple released the Intel Macs in January instead of June. You just never know what will come, nor when it will come.

Close Name:Guest
Subject:

I also agree with Dave, my wife for example does not know the difference between Windows and Office, just sees everything as "the computer".

Close Name:Rainy Day Posts: 607 Joined: 07 Jun 2005
Subject: Listening carefully

Quote
macinnerd wrote:
On the other hand, look what happened when Apple released the Intel Macs in January instead of June. You just never know what will come, nor when it will come.

Jobs never said Intel Mac’s would come out in June. What he said was “by this time next year.” When i heard that, i immediately expected a MWSF rollout. Only the folks who don’t listen carefully expected a June 2006 intro. Granted, that was a large crowd!

Close Name:Guest
Subject: Looks Like Microsoft Is In Trouble...

Way to gargle peanut butter there, Windows team.

Looks like its gonna be an Apple Xmas. Yay!

Close Name:Guest
Subject: Vista-Gee, all I hear are good things about it

Anyone following the Vista legacy through MS employee blogs, beta testers, and media slips has some real horror stories to recount about Microsoft's new train wreck.

The revelations are astounding in number and type. Current computers can't install it. If they can it takes up to 8 hours. The software is way buggy. More documented security holes before its official release than OSX & OS9-7 have had combined. Media player problems galore. Pay to rent, not own. For Gawd's sake-WHY!?

There are reasons not worth going into that answer this, but time is precious. I'll enjoy my Mac and what it does for me and just smile as all those dummies put good money after bad as they line up for the next round of MS Abuse-version 6.0.
Oh yes, take it back to code boys, meantime I'll keep on producing stuff Windows users can only dream about, gaining praise for my inovative work that I simply develop-sometimes-in iLife. I can't tell you how much I'm enjoying this!

Close Name:Guest
Subject: Boot Camp

It is also worth noting that Leopard will ship with a non-beta release of Boot Camp integrated into the Operating System.

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