TMO Reports - Analyst Offers WWDC Expectations

by , 1:05 PM EDT, August 1st, 2006

American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu on Tuesday outlined his expectations for Apple CEO Steve Jobs' keynote to kick off the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in San Francisco next Monday. They are: the introduction of an Intel-based successor to the Power Mac; "a 70% chance" that an existing Mac will be equipped with Intel's new Core 2 Duo processor; how Apple will incorporate running Windows in the next version of Mac OS X, dubbed Leopard; and a low probability of new iPods being introduced.

Mr. Wu said of Windows in Leopard: "While we believe AAPL will most likely go the 'safer' route with Boot Camp to avoid being bombarded with Windows support costs, our analysis indicates that there is great customer demand for a seamless way to run Windows simultaneously on Mac. Even if AAPL chooses not to go 'virtual,' users can purchase Parallels Desktop, which offers this capability. Should AAPL decide to go virtual, we view this as a material catalyst in driving incremental Mac units, particularly from switchers."

The analyst also continues to expect to see new iPods in September or October, roughly a year since the introduction of the video iPod and iPod nano. "There is always room for firsts," he wrote, "but WWDC is a Mac event and has not been used in the past for major iPod announcements. We anticipate a separate event to announce new iPod related products."

Mr. Wu reiterated his "Buy" rating on Apple's stock, with a US$75 price target. He added a caveat, however: "Given the recent fast and furious 35% appreciation in Apple shares, helped by newfound enthusiasm, we believe near-term upside could be difficult and we would not be surprised to see a relief pull-back, particularly if investors find Apple's announcements disappointing." At 12:51 PM EST on Tuesday, Apple's stock was selling for $66.51, down $1.45, or 2.13%, for the day. That is the first substantial drop for the shares since the company announced its previous quarter earnings on July 19.

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