Analyst: WWDC Announcements 'As Expected;' 'Focus on 6-9 Month Timeframe'
TMO Reports - Analyst: WWDC Announcements 'As Expected;' 'Focus on 6-9 Month Timeframe'
by , 4:15 PM EDT, August 7th, 2006
Noting that "the Street is somewhat disappointed that today's WWDC announcements are in line with expectations," Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in a research note that "the best approach to looking at Apple's product roadmap is to focus on a 6-9 month timeframe." He added: "While many rumored products were not announced at WWDC, we believe most of the products, including new iPod nano, video iPod, iTunes film downloads, and iPhone will be announced within 6-9 months."
Addressing each of Apple's announcements, Mr. Munster pointed out that "Apple continued inching up its Mac pricing following the Intel upgrade, with the new Mac Pro which is priced at US$2499 ... Our take is Apple's goal is to gain market share at a measured pace while at the same time increasing profitability."
The analyst added: "Even with the price increases, we believe Apple will gain more market share than the Street is modeling. We estimate that the Street is modeling for Apple to gain 0.2% market share in 2007. More than 0.2% share gain should provide upside to Street numbers. We believe Apple will gain more than 0.2% share in 2007."
He didn't offer any commentary on the new Intel-based Xserve, but the analyst did address the new features that will be found in Mac OS X v10.5 "Leopard." He saw Time Machine, Spaces, and Boot Camp as "the three key enhancements" but, obviously, expects "no near-term impact on business," since the new OS won't ship until next spring.
Mr. Munster kept his "Outperform" rating on Apple's stock, with a $99 price target. At the close of the trading day on Monday, the company's shares were selling for $67.21, down $1.09, or 1.6%, for the day. A Reuters article said that investors were disappointed by the lack of a new iPod or other "new consumer gadget" and quoted Mr. Munster as saying: "To get a rise (in stock price) you have to surprise investors."
Observer Comments
Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:40 pm Subject: As expected == disappointment
It's amazing how the investors expect something from a company, then company delivers, and they are disappointed! I guess, everyone is so used to the 'Oh, and one more thing' by now that, when they don't get it, it's bad. What other company gets such treatment???
Still, if I had cash, I'd buy the stock. Mr Munster / Piper Jaffray are definitely on the money about this.
Mon Aug 07, 2006 5:15 pm Subject: Price Anticipation
If investors are confident of X happening, and also think there's a possibility of Y happening, then "Y" has some value, which gets reflected in the price. If not, then you'd get the chance of Y happening for "free."
Once the announcements are over, and Y did not happen, then that value disappears and the price reverts to what it would be without Y.
Consider that if I were flipping a coin and said "if I get five heads in a row I'll give you $100." You have some expected value in that. So if we were going to properly calculate your net worth at that moment we'd have to include $100 * the chances of five heads.
If five heads did not happen, then your net worth drops back down to what it was without that chance.
Mon Aug 07, 2006 5:19 pm Subject: Price Point
"Apple continued inching up its Mac pricing following the Intel upgrade, with the new Mac Pro which is priced at US$2499 ... Our take is Apple's goal is to gain market share at a measured pace while at the same time increasing profitability."
The interesting thing is though that the Price point hasn't gone up. You can configure the new Mac Pro for just over $2000. $2499 is for the midrange system, which is probably the best Price/Performance ratio.
Tue Aug 08, 2006 1:08 pm Subject: Apple seemed to be pushing the $2,499 price point
You have to go to "Configure" the Mac Pro to see the 2 gig version, which saves $300. That's about the only area where most people will look to save money. With Apple pushing the $2,499 price point there is a large gap in the headless range between the mini and the Mac Pro. When you consider the number of people who picked up a mini to see what Macs were all about there are a lot out there who would be right for an upgrade to a headless version that fits in between the mini and the Pro. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple fill that void sometime between now and MWSF 07.
Comments are currently closed. Please email the author instead.
Recent Headlines - Updated November 8th
- Sun, 11:59 AM
- Mac Geek Gab Podcast - MGG 226: Magic Mouse, Apple Battery Secrets, Q&A
- Sat, 7:58 PM
- News - Apple TV 3.0.1 Update Fixes Missing Content Bug
- Fri, 7:45 PM
- Rumor - Taiwan Leak Shows Verizon UTMS/CDMA iPhone for Q3 2010
- 6:40 PM
- News - iPhone Moves Into RadioShack
- 6:30 PM
- News - Apple to Open Stunning Paris Apple Store in Le Louvre on Saturday
- 5:43 PM
- Free on iTunes - Dictionary, Dictionary, Dictionary, And More
- 4:09 PM
- John Martellaro's Blog - Particle Debris (week ending 11/6) Failure IS an Option
- 3:32 PM
- Games - The Latest App Store Games: Gravity Sling, RocketBird, Ground Effect, Checkers!
- 2:25 PM
- Games - Star Soccer 2010 for Mac Puts Gamers in Role of Up-and-Coming Player
- 2:15 PM
- How-To - The Mysteries of Rosetta Housekeeping
- 1:33 PM
- News - iPhone Game Developer Sued for Collecting User’s Cell Numbers
- 1:17 PM
- Games - Warhammer Online Expands Trial Play Option
The Mac Observer Reader Specials
- TypeStyler For Mac OS X is Now Shipping! Download The Free Fully Functional 60 Day Tryout at www.typestyler.com
RamJet Memory: Mac Pro 8-core 8GB Kit $199.99, 4GB Kits $109.99! Sale on MacBook and MacBook Pro 8GB kits $549.99! New MacBook DDR3 2GB for $49.99. iMac and Mac mini 4GB Kits for $79.99! 1TB SATA Hard Drives for $109.99! Click here
OWC: We Make DIY Upgrading Easy! Maximize your Apple MacBook / MacBook Pro. Up to 8.0GB Memory, up to 1.0TB HD & More. Easy Guide + Free, Detailed Installation Videos. Click here
If you're using a Mac, then you've gotta check out Full Tilt Poker for Mac. This Full Tilt Poker bonus code does the unthinkable, it actually rewards!For the latest Apple products use Ciao, a price comparison website, to find laptops like MacBook Air. Then find the best prices on MP3 players and use our comparison tool to evaluate mobile phones like the Apple iPhone.
Laptop Hardware Provided by TechRestore - Overnight Mac & iPod Repairs.
