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The iPod+iTunes combination already controls over 70 percent of the market, and that number would likely climb if the player wasn't limited by incompatible copy protection schemes.

I have to take exception to this.

For one, copy protection is only part of it; the iPod would still have to recognizer the WMP music format, which is a limitation in itself.

The other point is that to my knowledge, the iTunes music store is still the largest and most complete catalog of music out there. That said, there are probably bigger selections of TV and movies available elsewhere.

The Zune and other WMP devices would probably benefit more from the DRM elimination, since it would eliminate the barrier between "PlaysForSure" and "PlaysOnZune" WMP stores, as well as access to the iTMS.

Why should the iPod recognized windows media format when a plan MP3 or MP4 (ACC) is more universal. Widnows media format is Microsoft's way of locking you into windows.

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I have to take exception to this.

For one, copy protection is only part of it; the iPod would still have to recognizer the WMP music format, which is a limitation in itself.

Think: if Apple is forced to open its DRM, then other formats, notably WMP, will be forced to open theirs, too. The iPod audio decoder chips are WMP-ready, all they need is the license to decode.

OK, you guys have a story up about the Norwegian regulator's response this morning. Deadline to come up with a proposed solution is March 1. So that's really what this is about. Apple's only solution is to pull the plug on Norway.

As usual, Munster is shallow and delusional. There is no scenario under which Apple's iPod marketshare can actually increase, other than some general licensing scheme ala Microsoft Windows. There are too many devices and form factors coming online for low prices that play music nicely. iTunes, the iTunes Store, the iPod accessory market (including home theatre and car stereo) can slow the slide and cement iPod's niches, but there is nowhere to go but down from 75%. As I said before, my Sanyo M1 phone is better for podcasts for me than any iPod. Still like iPod for music and for my car stereo, but I've found a better device for some other things. I think others will too, eroding Apple's market share.

[quote="KitsuneStudios"]

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I have to take exception to this.

For one, copy protection is only part of it; the iPod would still have to recognizer the WMP music format, which is a limitation in itself.

I don't think they would. WMP is a proprietary format from Microsoft. While it is openly available for licensing, and can be used without DRM, it is not as 'open' a standard as MP3 or AAC (MP4) (Yes, I know they are owned by a group of companies, that is much more open then being owned by and under the helm of one company...). I think it is the other music stores that would change what audio format they sell, not the other way around...

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Bosco wrote:
iTunes, the iTunes Store, the iPod accessory market (including home theatre and car stereo) can slow the slide and cement iPod's niches, but there is nowhere to go but down from 75%

So, it's all over now but the shouting, Bosco?

It's hard to believe, but you're an even worst analyst than either Wu or Munster. You make them look good.

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deasys wrote:
So, it's all over now but the shouting, Bosco?

It's hard to believe, but you're an even worst analyst than either Wu or Munster. You make them look good.

OK, time for a bet. Any takers on whether Apple's MP3 market share with iPod will be lower a year from now? You bet it's same or higher. I bet it's lower. I'd even give you 5 points. I'd even look at the non-Zune market, although it won't make a difference. This is a total no brainer (for me).

Apple will still be dominant in Feb 2008, but not as dominant as it is now. There are too many ways that others can compete (price, features, etc.). There are so many established and upstart companies trying. For example, what would it cost SanDisk or Lexmark to add an MP3 decoder, amp, and earphone plug to their ubiquitous flash drives? Answer: not much.

When you have an analyst claiming that Apple can actually increase market share in MP3 players right now, what you actually have is a heavy crack smoker. Please, take me up on the bet. I can always use money.

BTW, in talking to the Financial Times, Munster said, “My bet is, at the end of the day, the record labels want some form of DRM.” He's talking out both sides of his mouth, telling them it ain't gonna happen and telling us if it does market share will go up. What a tool.

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Bosco wrote:


OK, time for a bet. Any takers on whether Apple's MP3 market share with iPod will be lower a year from now?

Apple doesn't sell MP3s. In fact, almost no one does.

I think you are on crack. First, Sandisk and Microsoft are the only companies in good enough position to compete with Apple on price. Apple, you see, gets volume discounts and was smart to prepay for its flash supply until 2008. In addition, it owns stock in Samsung, which makes some of its chips. Sandisk is the only MP3 company that actually makes the flash drives, so yes, it can compete on price, as it has a supply. Microsoft has a cash hoard, so it can afford to lose money.

Apple, however, will be coming out with better devices, so utilizing the technologies in the iPhone, I am sure. It will continue to drop prices, or at least add features to the Nano and Shuffle, which are very price competitive.

Come on, Apple sold 21 million of these things in the December quarter, when the average estimate was 18.

For what it is worth, copyprotection makes Zune's squirting feature useless. Fifty percent of the songs cannot squirt because of DRm restrictions. Moreover, only idoits would buy such a device when it lacks many of the important features of the iPod (e.g. ability to be used as a hard drive, alarm clock, through a TV, and game system).

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Bosco wrote:

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deasys wrote:
So, it's all over now but the shouting, Bosco?

It's hard to believe, but you're an even worst analyst than either Wu or Munster. You make them look good.

OK, time for a bet. Any takers on whether Apple's MP3 market share with iPod will be lower a year from now? You bet it's same or higher. I bet it's lower. I'd even give you 5 points. I'd even look at the non-Zune market, although it won't make a difference. This is a total no brainer (for me).

Apple will still be dominant in Feb 2008, but not as dominant as it is now. There are too many ways that others can compete (price, features, etc.). There are so many established and upstart companies trying. For example, what would it cost SanDisk or Lexmark to add an MP3 decoder, amp, and earphone plug to their ubiquitous flash drives? Answer: not much.

When you have an analyst claiming that Apple can actually increase market share in MP3 players right now, what you actually have is a heavy crack smoker. Please, take me up on the bet. I can always use money.

BTW, in talking to the Financial Times, Munster said, “My bet is, at the end of the day, the record labels want some form of DRM.” He's talking out both sides of his mouth, telling them it ain't gonna happen and telling us if it does market share will go up. What a tool.