Analyst: Apple May Sell 17M iPhones in 2008
Analyst: Apple May Sell 17M iPhones in 2008
by , 11:55 AM EDT, May 8th, 2007
Apple is hoping to sell 10 million iPhone units in fiscal 2008, but Caris & Co. analyst Shebly Seyrafi thinks the company's estimates may be too low by about seven million. Mr. Seyrafi is estimating that Apple could sell as many as 17 million iPhones in 2008, and then jump up to 25 million units in fiscal 2009, according to Barron's.
During his keynote presentation at Macworld Expo in January 2007, Apple CEO Steve Jobs stated his company was targeting one percent of the smart phone market in the iPhone's first year. That would account for the 10 million unit figure Apple has targeted, but Mr. Seyrafi's projections put the iPhone over the one percent target by a healthy margin.
Mr. Seyrafi also expects Apple may sell 11.9 million iPods in the June 2007 quarter based on checks of the hard disk market. About a third of those sales will be for Apple's video capable iPod, indicating a strong market for the portable media player.
Mr. Seyrafi is raising his target price for Apple stock from US$110 to $115. He is also bumping up his fiscal 2007 EPS estimate from $3.43 to $3.52. For fiscal 2008, he is now predicting a 3.73 EPS, up from $3.54, and $4.42 in 2009, up from $4.21.
Apple stock is currently trading at $103.89, down 0.03 (0.03%).
If you are interested in Apple's stock, join our forum members in the Apple Finance Boards, a moderated forum for Apple Investors and people who are interested in Apple's financial dealings. For other stories regarding Apple's stock activity, visit our updated Apple Stock Watch Special Report.
Observer Comments
Tue May 08, 2007 4:14 pm Subject: iPhone will have brisk sales, but not as brisk as some think
It has these main contentions:
1. Cost!
2. Stuck with one service provider.
3. Lack of a flip camera like the Clie, meaning no support for video iChat, which would have gone along well with its WiFi capability.
4. Lack of 80 GB hard drive option. Some people do have that much music and video they want to watch on their iPhone.
5. The possibility that cell phones may be causing the demise of bees and putting a major albatross on the world food supply.
When Apple can break those issues down, and sell an iPhone for half the cost they currently are offering, I'll trade up!
Tue May 08, 2007 10:41 pm Subject: Re: iPhone will have brisk sales, but not as brisk as some..
Quotegopher wrote:
It has these main contentions:
1. Cost!
2. Stuck with one service provider.
3. Lack of a flip camera like the Clie, meaning no support for video iChat, which would have gone along well with its WiFi capability.
4. Lack of 80 GB hard drive option. Some people do have that much music and video they want to watch on their iPhone.
5. The possibility that cell phones may be causing the demise of bees and putting a major albatross on the world food supply.
When Apple can break those issues down, and sell an iPhone for half the cost they currently are offering, I'll trade up!
I darned near spit out my soda laughing. Yes, it will be BEES that limit the sales of iPhones. I for one will be looking for the "Bee Safe" label on my next cell phone! (hey, that isn't a half-bad idea...no more ridiculous than the sale of indulgences or carbon credits) The 80 GB option won't phase sales of the iPhone. It is primarily a PHONE..a VERY smart phone. It isn't an iPod with phone cpapbilities tacked on. Those purchasing it will (or should) get that. As for #3, the Clie' was rendered insignificant in the pda/smartphone realm without many other companies jumping on the flip camera bandwagon to the point where those types of phones are still a very small minority of phones produced. I agree that video iChat support with a front-facing or flip camera would be a fantastic feature, but I don't see this being a significant factor affecting sales. #2 IS going to be a problem for many (myself included) as EDGE data rates and $40/month data plans are just not acceptable when you have companies like Sprint and Verizon offering unlimited EVDO data plans for $15-$30/month with the ability to tether your phone to your computer and use it as a wireless high speed modem. To combat this Cingular needs to at leat match Sprint's $15/month offering and hurry up and deploy their HSDPA network. That, or Apple needs to offer a differnt iPhone model for CDMA networks and other GSM carriers (Apple may have an exclusive deal with Cingular on THIS iPhone, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is exclusive on ALL models...wishful thinking, I know). Finally, price WILL have a chiling effect on some but in the end, they won't be able to keep these things on the shelves.
Wed May 09, 2007 2:14 pm Subject: Bee Open Minded :)
There are people who really think that mobile phones are responsible for Colony Collapse Disorder.
Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) is the name that has been given to the latest, and what seems to be the most serious, die-off of honey bee colonies across the country.
They site studies by Landau University:
<http://agbi.uni-landau.de/material_download/preprint_IAAS_2007.pdf>
And Dr George Carlo, who has been saying that mobile phones are killing us since the 1990s.
<http://www.sppionline.org/>
The Bee people <http://maarec.cas.psu.edu/ColonyCollapseDisorder.html> are leaning towards a parasite, an unknown virus, some kind of bacteria, pesticides, or a one-two combination of these top four suspects.
<http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=2007-05-02_D8OSG3IO0&show_article=1&cat=breaking>
I'm with the Bee People. But amongst us Apple fanboys are a large number of wackos, so Apple may have to answer this one yet...
Wed May 09, 2007 5:43 pm Subject:
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