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Analyst: June Quarter iPod Sales May Be Down

by , 1:30 PM EDT, May 23rd, 2007

iPod sales for the June quarter may come in below Wall Street's 9.8 million estimate according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. Based on extrapolated data from NPD, Mr. Munster is predicting Apple may report only 9.5 million iPods sold for the quarter.

That number is substantially lower than the 10.5 million units Mr. Munster has been predicting, but it could change as additional sales data emerges. So far, there is only one month worth of sales data available.

"The 9.5 million unit approximation is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of one month of data," he said. "When the second month of data is released, our analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure than what our analysis suggests based on the first month of data."

Should iPod sales stay inline with the current figures, Apple could report numbers on track with, or slightly below, Street estimates. Mr. Munster's original estimate of 10.5 million units now seems a bit high, but that could change at any time - especially if Apple releases a new must-have iPod model.

Mr. Munster is maintaining his "Outperform" rating and US$140 target price for Apple stock. Apple is currently trading at $114.52, up 0.98 (0.86%).


If you are interested in Apple's stock, join our forum members in the Apple Finance Boards, a moderated forum for Apple Investors and people who are interested in Apple's financial dealings. For other stories regarding Apple's stock activity, visit our updated Apple Stock Watch Special Report.

Observer Comments

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View Name:Guest
Subject: damage control
Close Name:Spider Posts: 2997 Joined: 12 Aug 2001
Subject: okay..

but are they counting the iPod built into the iPhone?

Cause if they count the iPhone as an iPod as well, I am sure iPod sales will be higher than expected.

Close Name:Biff Posts: 1479 Joined: 08 Apr 2004
Subject:

I count the iPhone as an iPod and thus I expect to be buying an iPod in the June quarter. Although just barely.

Given that the iPhone will only be avaiable for probably like 4-5 days this quarter, I seriously doubt they could sell enough to beat wall street estimates for iPods. The only way they will do that is through regular iPod sales.

Guest, 9.5M iPods in a quarter means they aren't selling? I wish I had that problem.

View Name:Guest
Subject:
View Name:Guest
Subject: iPod
View Name:Guest
Subject: Calm down now.
Close Name:dmyers7 Posts: 4 Joined: 23 May 2007
Subject: New iPod coming

Don't you really think that people who are not going to buy the iPhone are starting to wait for the new widescreen iPod which we all know has to follow soon behind the iPhone because of this. As for me, I already have 40GB iPod video for storage, just need my 8GB iPhone to complete the set.

Close Name:dmyers7 Posts: 4 Joined: 23 May 2007
Subject: Calm down now.

The iPod is superior. MACs are superior. MAC OSX is superior. The iPhone and it's interface will of course be superior. Finally an easy to use PDA phone (Smart Phone) with the capability to play any music and if you wish use the easy to use iTunes Store. I'm tired of complex, hard to use, non-intuitive interfaces. It's unnessesary and a waste of time.

Wecome iPhone. I look forward to your simple to use, intuitive interface so that I can get back to living.


Quote
Guest wrote:
I dunno, do you count other cell phones that are capable of playing music files as a portable music player? If you did, then the iPod's market share is grossly exagerated.

Either way, the iPhone isn't even on the market, so if you want, let's do the math.
iPod sales = X
iPhone sales = 0
X + 0 = X

So sure, add them in. Next quarter, we should be sure to include all the mobile phones that are capable of playing digital music files in the portable music player category. Unless of course our intention is to misrepresent the marketplace in Apple's favor.

View Name:Guest
Subject:
Close Name:dmyers7 Posts: 4 Joined: 23 May 2007
Subject: Thank You My Friend

Thank You my friend for proving my point.

First of all, all those adapters as you call them are available and are not that expensive. Nicely, they simply integrate into the existing iPod and just work. Because of Apple's interest in extensibility, there is an extremely healthy third party market surrounding the success of the iPod and this in itself continues the momentum; beautiful, smart.

Now as for your somewhat special formats, you are obviously a Windows Zeolite and enjoy the complex and crude so that you feel you have control over alot of functionialty; but this is truely where more is not necessarily better. Someday you will come to find that there is more to life then messing around with settings and configurations. I too was like you, but I have better things to do with my time and less (simplicity of an interface) is truely more. I left go of the Windows control panel to switch to MAC and now enjoy surfing the web, writting useful software (cross-platform even), and having time to relax by my pond with my gold fish swimming by and the sound of my waterfall in the background. Because the iPhone will have the same ease of use and expanded functionality, this too will just work and provide me with additional time to enjoy life. When I need it, it will be there with the functionality I need and easy to use interface and I will not have to worry about it crashing, getting a virus, or having me to reconfigure it everytime I want to do something different.

Thank you iPhone, I can't wait. Bye Treo, your days are numbered.

Close Name:JimB12 Posts: 21 Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Subject:

Come on dude. I love my iPods as much as anyone, but I recognize that integrated functionality is nice. I use my Sony player instead of my old shuffle which I gave to my little brother because it has some of these features built in (like FM and killer battery life). Using an adapter is clunky, and makes you have to carry around more boxes and wires. I would much rather have one device that can do all the features. Would you want a phone adapter for your iPod or would you rather have an iPhone? Also, if you're going call someone a zealot, spell it correctly, and then also realize that FLAC & OGG are open source and have nothing to do with Microsoft. People who like FLAC & OGG tend to be just as anti-Microsoft as the rest of us. Actually, we tend to want to avoid getting locked into any proprietary formats as we don't get locked into any corporation's systems. But then the rest of that paragraph is a total tangent and I'm not even sure what you're trying to say about iPods and OSS media format when you talk about windows control panel, what does that have to do with anything? As far as I know, Mac & Windows both support OGG & FLAC along Linux. Maybe you were just confused and thought that these "special formats" were proprietary? Anyways, the iPod is nicely designed, but it is lacking some features that I find, as do others, very useful in a media player. Oh, that also goes the same for xvid, it's an open source video codec, not a proprietary format. And there are players out there that support all of these out of the box.

Close Name:dmyers7 Posts: 4 Joined: 23 May 2007
Subject: Tangent away

You are correct. Sorry for drifting. Those newer formats will give someone a nice niche market like Linux does (the regular consumer doesn't have the time to get an education just to install or use it). Different is good, it's where great things start.

View Name:Guest
Subject: You are clueless
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