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Investor iPhone Expectations May Be Too High

by , 9:10 AM EDT, June 25th, 2007

Investors and consumers alike are expecting a lot out of this Friday's iPhone release. While consumers are expecting the ultimate smartphone, investors are expecting sales upwards of 200,00 for the last two days of June - a number that some analysts see as a setup for disappointment, according to Bloomberg.

Pacific Crest Securities analyst Andy Hargreaves is one of those predicting Apple will sell 200,000 right away. "There's definitely a lot of buzz," he said. "If they only sell 100,000, that would be bad."

If iPhone sales don't meet investor expectations, Apple's stock value may start to fall.

Apple will offer its combination iPod and smartphone in two configurations: a US$499 model with 4GB of memory, and a $599 model with 8GB. The iPhone will be available through Apple retail stores, the online Apple Store, and AT&T stores. Voice and data services will be offered exclusively through AT&T.

While analysts like Mr. Hargreaves and Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster are predicting high sales for the first two days of availability, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu has a more conservative 50,000 unit estimate.

"The iPhone is not a simple sale," he said. "You have to sign up the customer for service. Can they even get a couple of hundred thousand people through the stores in two days?"

Apple's iPhone will be released at 6 p.m. local time in the United States on Friday, June 29. While many Apple fans and iPhone hopefuls are expected to line up early - and in some cases even camp out overnight - for a chance to be one of the first to buy one, it is still unclear how many will actually put out the cash when the time comes. For now, investors are betting that number will be high.

Apple stock is currently trading in the pre-market at $123.40, up 0.40 (0.33%).


If you are interested in Apple's stock, join our forum members in the Apple Finance Boards, a moderated forum for Apple Investors and people who are interested in Apple's financial dealings. For other stories regarding Apple's stock activity, visit our updated Apple Stock Watch Special Report.

  

Observer Comments

Show: Subjects Only | Full Comments
Close Name:nealg Posts: 120 Joined: 22 Mar 2006
Subject: The numbers...

If you calculate the numbers, with 1800 stores, not counting the Apple stores or the online store, you would need each store to sell 111 iPhones over the 2 days in order to make the 200,000 number. From all the talk that is surrounding the iPhone, I would bet that they can sell that many. In fact, I would be surprised if the number isn't twice this number. Part of what happens,though, will depend on what the numbers for the calling plans will be. If AT&T decides to stick it to the consumer, then that can and will put a big cloud over the introduction. If they make the plans very reasonable, these numbers are definitely attainable.

Neal

View Name:Guest
Subject:
View Name:Guest
Subject: Apple will sell however many are shipped
Close Name:nealg Posts: 120 Joined: 22 Mar 2006
Subject: Maybe,

the next big surprise might be the plan that they come up with for the phone. If they price this thing right, it could get very interesting.

http://www.electronista.com/articles/07/06/25/iphone.data.plan.leak/

Neal

Close Name:daemon Posts: 305 Joined: 17 May 2007
Subject:

Quote
nealg wrote:
the next big surprise might be the plan that they come up with for the phone. If they price this thing right, it could get very interesting.

http://www.electronista.com/articles/07/06/25/iphone.data.plan.leak/

Neal


You know that AT&T's PDA Personal Max plan is an add-on service, which since it's being used as a comparison for the iPhone plan indicates to me that the iPhone plan is probably going to be an add-on to normal voice service. 450 Nation minutes are going for about $40 a month, so $40 for the voice + $45 for the data + fees and taxes of around $30 (it seems like it always ends up being $30 in taxes and fees) you've got a monthly rate of about $115.

View Name:Guest
Subject:
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