We'll see. <<insert large block of salt>>
Personally I doubt the torrid sales rate of the first two weeks can continue. I think the pace will roll off as we continue through the summer and as the technophiles who have to have the newest thing get there iPhones. Some of the updates RBC mentions, higher capacity and lower price, might help to maintain the rate, but 14 mil is an awful lot of iPhones.

I would agree. Especially since there are about 9 million Blackberry subscribers total, and about 3 million Treos ever produced (those two being probably the most popular "smartphones" sold).

They would have to eclipse both of those combined. Tough to do when operating in that price range, but time will tell.

I say, not unlikely. If initial estimates were correct (I wonder why neither AT&T nor Apple are releasing ANY numbers at all?), the first million was out of the gate within first week. Obviously, if they were to sustain this 'torrid' rate, they'd hit that 10 million (projection until end of 2008) before the end of September this year. Still, taking into account the Christmas season, I can easily see 8 million in 2007 and another 6M in 2008 (for a total of 14 million).

As for the Trio/BlueBerry comparison, while many people see these devices as iPhone's direct competition, they actually aren't. IPhone is going against all the RAZERs and similar. If RAZER can launch at $500 and be a success, iPhone will have no problem.

There was an ATT quote saying that the iPhone sold way faster than the razor, which up to the iphone was by far the fastest selling cell phone ever...

14 mill sounds like a lot for a single carrier in a single country. If Canada, Europe and Middle East come on line for sales, I think 14 mill might be doable (with ease).

Apple likes to announce when they've sold the first million of something. I have assumed they haven't sold a million iPhones yet, since we haven't heard anything.

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dhp wrote:
Apple likes to announce when they've sold the first million of something. I have assumed they haven't sold a million iPhones yet, since we haven't heard anything.

In my household, iPhone sales are meeting analyst and internal company estimates. They have sold exactly 0.

Two iPhones in my house, 50% market penetration. At that rate, iPhone sales will reach 150 million.

My estimate is as valid as Bosco's.

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Guest wrote:
Two iPhones in my house, 50% market penetration. At that rate, iPhone sales will reach 150 million.

My estimate is as valid as Bosco's.

I agree with vasic that the iPhone is not really competing with the BlackBerry or Treo (and other keyboard based smartphones). The Treo has had dismal sales--that 3 million was spread over several years. The BlackBerry's success, I suspect (with no evidence, of course), is due to its adoption by companies who provide the devices to their employees. That may reflect the integration of the BlackBerry handhelds with the BlackBerry servers.

However, the real point is that the BlackBerry and Treo are, to put it mildly, a PITA to learn to use--and not that much fun to use once one has learned. (They can also be a pain in the hand--orthopedists have identified "BlackBerry thumb" as a form of repetitive stress injury.) I seriously considered a Treo some time back to replace my Tungsten C (also has a keyboard and is roughly the size of a Treo) and cheap cell phone. I tried out another person's Treo and was immediately put off, even though I'd been using Palm OS PDAs for at least 4 years (Handspring Visor Deluxe, Treo 90 (no phone), Tungsten C). It had all the problems of the Tungsten C (e.g., remembering key combinations for punctuation & numbers--or squinting to see the teensy lettering) and more. It was still tied to a stylus. The only selling point was that it used the Palm OS, which I was used to. (Many new Treos use Windows Mobile.) Later, I got a Palm TX, which has the same size & resolution screen as the iPhone and a virtual keyboard, plus WiFi and Bluetooth. *


The iPhone is different. It is apparently quite easy to learn and use. It's much more attractive--less "techno-geek" looking--and cool. The screen is much better. Movies are much better than the iPod 5/5.5G, music as good as the iPods. It uses the "real" Internet, not the <GAG> "mobile" Internet that I use with the TX or would be used with a Treo or BlackBerry. It shows full-blown HTML email, which the TX does not. The iPhone is designed "for the rest of us," which may sound familiar to long-time Mac users.

Want proof? How many kids, teens, non-professionals want an iPhone? Answer the same question for the Treo and BlackBerry. Now, you understand.



* FWIW, the TX lists for $299--with no phone and only 100MB useable RAM. It can use SD cards--but not SDHC. I have a 1GB SD card in mine; I haven't tried a 2GB card. To get 4GB, you'd have to buy 2 2GB cards or 4 1 GB cards for about $60 (can't use the Class 1 cheap cards if you want to play music or videos), plus something to carry them in--and hope that you don't lose them.

Wife and I both bought iPhones on the 30th. We are not technophiles. We do not need the latest gadgets. In fact, we take pride in generally being several years behind.

I needed an email capable phone for work. Looked at Treo, Blackberry and Q phone. Hated them all. Decided to get a Treo 2 weeks before the iPhone came out. Never got around to it, and am very glad I didn't.

Simply put, Apple got the iPhone right. It will continue to be successful because it works. It's easy to use and does everything I need it to. Perfect? No. Miles ahead of the pack? Absolutely.

As for continuing the momentum, they'll need to fully integrate it with MS Exchange. Not just email. It must wirelessly sync with the Exchange calendar, contacts, the works. If Apple pulls that off they win.

"Still, taking into account the Christmas season, I can easily see 8 million in 2007 and another 6M in 2008 (for a total of 14 million)."

Wait... 8M in 2007 (6 months) vs 6M in 2008 (12 months)? You don't see what's funny with these numbers? Sure, there is a Christmas season to help selling 8M iPhones in 2007, but 2008 also has a Christmas season. So, the major difference will be the pent up demand and the market size. However, the iPhone will have been introduced to the US and a part of the EU market by the end of 2007. Asia Pacific market will get the iPhone in 2008, contributing to a bigger market and its own pent up demand. Also, in that time frame, Apple possibly will introduce cheaper and better models. So, in 2008 iPhone will cover a bigger market size. How can the sales in half of 2007 beat the sales in full 2008?

14M is a huge number. It's doable, but not at the 8M-6M split.

I have to agree with the Guest who said "Apple got this one right." I bought two on the 29th and have not regretted it for one minute. My wifed abandoned her Blackberry for her iPhone. Her company doesn't let her retrieve corporate e-mail with it, but she simply goes to their web site and logs in to check and reply to company e-mail. I use my calender for my job, no more Palm for me, but the phone and e-mail are for personal use and I love it. I have found the Google maps to be very useful in everyday life, and I really like being able to track the stocks I own. I can log into my etrade account and initiate a trade if I see fit. Apple was dead on the money with the iPhone. It may, at some point, be a substitute for a Blackberry, but for a normal civilian who wants to keep up with a busy life and have all of their contact and calender information in one place and have telephone ability, it is spot on. I think they will sell all they can make.