First Piper Jaffray was saying 500,000. The about 2 weeks later we heard 250,000. Now we actually have some official numbers that are coming not from analysts, but from the carrier. I think we know which to trust, AT&T has no reason to lowball that number, and has access to the data that analysts do not.

yet another Apple apologist post. Im a big Mac fan but im really getting tired of the troop of Apple apologists on the web.

"aren't necessarily an indication of how many iPhone units were sold on June 29 and June 30"


What I've been thinking since this morning. And searching the web for any of the mainstream idiot press to INVESTIGATE this fundamental question which so far I find none asking. Same great reporting which couldn't figure out if 200K, 500k, or 1000K iphones were sold the first weekend/week. Searching...this is one of a few pages I've found..

Trouble for the stock, or a downdraft caused by NONE of the reporters getting at the most important fact. I've read many press reports that are EQUATING the number activated with the number sold. And I've got 1100 shares to sit and wait, or dump if a lot more air is about to be released.

How many iPhone numbers were registered on days 3 and 4 after AT&T cleared their activation logjam? I suppose that we will have to wait until this quarter has ended.

The 146,000 is simply a measure of AT&T's ability to activate iPhones. I bought two iPhones and was only able to activate one. Extrapolate that to equal at least 292,000 sold.
There were enough activation attempts to bog down AT&T's system. I'm betting on at least 500,000 when Apple announces the numbers tomorrow.

I didn't activate mine until Tuesday after the initial sale. I wanted to wait to see others reaction and possibly return it unopened for a refund. The $200 carrier cancellation also weighed heavily on my mind but I went ahead and did it and have not had one regret since. I LOVE my iPhone!!

Actually, Piper was first saying 200,000. Then it upped its number, and then started scaling its number back. Meanwhile, those analysis's have no hard numbers to go on. It is all conjecture, and hurts Apple investors. Before Apple released the iPhone market consensus was 200, 000 to 350, 000 units.

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Guest wrote:
First Piper Jaffray was saying 500,000. The about 2 weeks later we heard 250,000. Now we actually have some official numbers that are coming not from analysts, but from the carrier. I think we know which to trust, AT&T has no reason to lowball that number, and has access to the data that analysts do not.

How can you blame the media for this? Where were they supposed to get a hard number? Neither Apple nor AT&T were giving out numbers. Were they supposed to break into Apple offices in Cupertino and get access to inside info somehow?

Blaming the media for not knowing is ridiculous.

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Guest wrote:
How can you blame the media for this? Where were they supposed to get a hard number? Neither Apple nor AT&T were giving out numbers. Were they supposed to break into Apple offices in Cupertino and get access to inside info somehow?

Blaming the media for not knowing is ridiculous.

Why does the media need the numbers and when are businesses required to provide the data?

I was responding to the post titled "idiot media," Sir Flashman. My point was that the media doesn't have access to what companies won't provide, unless they can get an insider to spill the beans.

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Guest wrote:
I was responding to the post titled "idiot media," Sir Flashman. My point was that the media doesn't have access to what companies won't provide, unless they can get an insider to spill the beans.

Sorry about that chum.

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Guest wrote:
"aren't necessarily an indication of how many iPhone units were sold on June 29 and June 30"


What I've been thinking since this morning. And searching the web for any of the mainstream idiot press to INVESTIGATE this fundamental question which so far I find none asking. Same great reporting which couldn't figure out if 200K, 500k, or 1000K iphones were sold the first weekend/week. Searching...this is one of a few pages I've found..

Trouble for the stock, or a downdraft caused by NONE of the reporters getting at the most important fact. I've read many press reports that are EQUATING the number activated with the number sold. And I've got 1100 shares to sit and wait, or dump if a lot more air is about to be released.

Please dump all 1100 shares of APPL immediately.

146,000 activations is a fantastic number. Current sales record of most cell phones sold in a single day belongs to Nokia with 400,000 handsets sold in India. Nokia's previous record was 100,000 handsets. I'm pretty sure they weren't selling a $600 USD phone that was unsubstadized by the carrier while getting an additional kickback from the carrier of $200 USD plus $9 USD a month per subscription.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HJ28Df02.html

And when you call your broker to dump APPL, please tell him that you're too stupid to own stock.

1) On-line sales from the AppleStore could not have been included, since those phones could not have been activated until the following week.

2) The numbers also don't include Sunday since AT&T only counted up until Saturday evening.

3) Activation problems due to overload probably had a big impact on those numbers.

4) A huge number of people bought 2 phones, often for others or as gifts, so they may not have been activated until a day or two after the purchase.

5) Many stores ran out and people were forced to buy the phone the next day/week or order online.

6) Many people bought the phone as an wide-screen iPod.

7) AT&T numbers don't really mean anything at this point.

8) Apple & AT&T have been manipulating iPhone features and sales information from the get-go. I bet these "activation" numbers were released on purpose, knowing full well that Apple will blow them away when they announce the number "sold" in there earnings report. Think about it.

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studentx wrote:
1) On-line sales from the AppleStore could not have been included, since those phones could not have been activated until the following week.

They won't be counted in Apple's quarter summary either as they didn't ship until late July.

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2) The numbers also don't include Sunday since AT&T only counted up until Saturday evening.

Apple won't count Sunday either, as only Friday and Saturday were part of the quarter.

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3) Activation problems due to overload probably had a big impact on those numbers.

No one will know exactly how large of an impact it was until exact numbers of sales to consumers are released and how many of them actually attempted to activate durring the two days that are counted. But I doubt any of that info will ever be made public. Apparently Apple counts units sold when they enter the channel, not when a consumer purchases the item. So if they moved 2 million units into the channel, they will report 2 million sales even if only 50,000 of them were sold to consumers.

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4) A huge number of people bought 2 phones, often for others or as gifts, so they may not have been activated until a day or two after the purchase.

Huge? How huge? 2 million people huge? 5 million people huge? or 10 thousand people huge? There's no way to tell how many people bought more than one and did not activate them immediately with this information.

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5) Many stores ran out and people were forced to buy the phone the next day/week or order online.

None of the stores local to me ran out. I have two Apple stores within 10 miles of my house and 3 more AT&T stores within 15 miles of my house. That's 5 stores that didn't run out during the weekend.

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6) Many people bought the phone as an wide-screen iPod.

Got any reports reporting about the numbers of people involved? Is it 200 thousand or more?

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7) AT&T numbers don't really mean anything at this point.

It means more than you're willing to admit. It means that the iPhone is an unqualified success and has broken all smart phone sales records. It has made a massive move into the market and will have sold about 8 million units by the end of 2008. Maybe not the 1% of the cell phone market that Apple said they were going for at the begining, but a huge success none the less.

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8) Apple & AT&T have been manipulating iPhone features and sales information from the get-go. I bet these "activation" numbers were released on purpose, knowing full well that Apple will blow them away when they announce the number "sold" in there earnings report. Think about it.

Yea, because they want AT&T to under report sales. Yep, that's their entire desire is to under report so they can wow you with a surprise.

Dude, you're too enamoured with Jobs' "One more thing" line. You're letting your hope for a big wow to convince yourself that AT&T would actually commit fraud so Apple could do this.

Apple has had major success in the cell phone market, and will continue to have more. I forsee Apple releasing their next iPhone at Macworld 2008 and their third generation at Macworld 2009 will see the company reach 50 million users by the end of 2009.

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daemon wrote:
Apparently Apple counts units sold when they enter the channel, not when a consumer purchases the item. So if they moved 2 million units into the channel, they will report 2 million sales even if only 50,000 of them were sold to consumers.

Daemon,

Where are you getting the information about how Apple counts units sold? I know this is how MS accounts for product movement, but do you know for certain that Apple accounts the same way?

Seriously, I'd really like to know. I can't find anything that refers to how Apple accounts for units (shipped to distributors vs actually sold to consumers). So if you have a reference for this, I'd like to see it. And no, I'm not calling you out on it. It is genuine interest in how they account.

Cheers.

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Intruder wrote:

Daemon,

Where are you getting the information about how Apple counts units sold? I know this is how MS accounts for product movement, but do you know for certain that Apple accounts the same way?

Seriously, I'd really like to know. I can't find anything that refers to how Apple accounts for units (shipped to distributors vs actually sold to consumers). So if you have a reference for this, I'd like to see it. And no, I'm not calling you out on it. It is genuine interest in how they account.

Cheers.

Actually, I don't know for true myself. I read a post by Tommo_UK where he said that Apple counted units as being sold as soon as they ship them rather than waiting for them to be sold to a consumer, and as that type of sales accounting is famaliar from when I worked for Best Buy, I took him at his word.

http://www.macobserver.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=56773

Ahh. Thanks.

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Intruder wrote:

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daemon wrote:
Apparently Apple counts units sold when they enter the channel, not when a consumer purchases the item. So if they moved 2 million units into the channel, they will report 2 million sales even if only 50,000 of them were sold to consumers.

Daemon,

Where are you getting the information about how Apple counts units sold? I know this is how MS accounts for product movement, but do you know for certain that Apple accounts the same way?

Seriously, I'd really like to know. I can't find anything that refers to how Apple accounts for units (shipped to distributors vs actually sold to consumers). So if you have a reference for this, I'd like to see it. And no, I'm not calling you out on it. It is genuine interest in how they account.

Cheers.

How do you know for sure that Microsoft does it that way? I am calling you out because you called someone else out for not giving a source then did the same thing. PS- calling someone out and then saying you're not calling someone out is like using a pun in a prewritten speech then saying no pun intended.

Read their 10-Q report. They report units sold into retail. Per their report "Sales in the retail channels are primarily to distributors and resellers." That is what they report (as well as to OEMs). Not sales to end users. Robbie Bach (head of EDD at Microsoft) also stated in an investors call that (in this particular case) XBox 360 numbers were "10.4 million consoles sold into retail". As they don't really have a direct retail channel (unlike Apple or Dell, you don't go to www.microsoft.com and place an order, or go to the Microsoft store down the street), in a way it makes sense to report that way. But it doesn't really show what has actually been provided to end users (the public).

Deamon responded with civility and didn't feel he was being called out. I really wanted to know what Apple's method is. He replied with the basis for his assumption. Sorry if you felt attacked by proxy.

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Guest wrote:
The 146,000 is simply a measure of AT&T's ability to activate iPhones. I bought two iPhones and was only able to activate one. Extrapolate that to equal at least 292,000 sold.
There were enough activation attempts to bog down AT&T's system. I'm betting on at least 500,000 when Apple announces the numbers tomorrow.

I hope you really didn't bet on exceeding 500,000 because you were way off.