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Analyst: Macworld to Bring Subnotebook, Blu-ray, Movie Rentals

by , 11:35 AM EST, January 3rd, 2008

American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu expects Steve Jobs will surprise Macworld Expo attendees during his keynote presentation with announcements that focus on the subnotebook market, Blu-ray, and iTunes movie rentals. He also expects that Apple's CEO will have something up his sleeve that no one has yet predicted.

Apple's last offering in the subnotebook market was the PowerBook 2400 in 1997. This time, however, the Cupertino company will likely forego tradition design elements by using NAND Flash RAM for primary data storage to reduce power consumption, improve reliability, and reduce weight. Likely names for the laptop, according to Mr. Wu, include ""MacBook mini" or "MacBook slim."

Blu-ray, one of the potential successors to the DVD movie format, will likely make its first appearance in Apple computers at Macworld Expo, too.

"Our sources indicate that Apple will outline is high-definition video strategy with the support of Blu-ray as opposed to HD-DVD," Mr Wu said. "We believe this is a key announcement as current Macs ship with DVD and Sony gains a strong ally in Blu-ray. We would note that Disney supports Blu-ray and Microsoft is a big supporter of HD-DVD."

Apple's movie-related announcements won't be limited to Blu-ray support. Mr. Wu expects Apple will also announce movie rentals through the iTunes Store. He believes "that rentals are a significant change in [Apple's] philosophy with its current iTunes download business model. The positive implication from this is that Apple enhances its video experience and makes it more compelling to move and/or stick with the iTunes + iPod + Mac + iPhone + Apple TV ecosystem."

Mr. Jobs may also announce storage and speed bumps for other Mac models and possibly the iPhone, but Apple TV updates may not come until later in 2008 or even sometime in 2009. Mr. Wu added "We believe a 3G iPhone will most likely ship in the mid to [second half of] 2008 timeframe. We believe that by then the network coverage, price points, and battery life issues will be better addressed."

Mr. Wu is maintaining his "Buy" rating and US$210 target price for Apple's stock. Apple is currently trading at $195.48, up 0.64 (0.33%).


If you are interested in Apple's stock, join our forum members in the Apple Finance Boards, a moderated forum for Apple Investors and people who are interested in Apple's financial dealings. For other stories regarding Apple's stock activity, visit our updated Apple Stock Watch Special Report.

Observer Comments

Show: Subjects Only | Full Comments
Close Name:Bosco Posts: 999 Joined: 03 Jun 2002
Subject: Screw the Stevenote!

I say screw the Stevenote! What we all want instead is a Wunote. Way back when there were just rumor sites and no analysts xeroxing their predictions, things were good. You could ignore the rumor sites the week before an Apple event and then really enjoy the Steve's show. Now, everything is known beforehand with Wu, Munster, and their minions releasing all the spoilers. And if they don't spoil things, they just ramp up expectations to unmeetable levels and everyone is disappointed that Apple didn't pull some speculated product out of Jonathan Ive's arse.

Close Name:houltmac Posts: 256 Joined: 12 Apr 2007
Subject:

I have to say I agree with Bosco in a way. I enjoy getting all hyped up, and I love some of the things that the community comes up with. Still, it's true that you can spoil a good presentation either with pre-announcement confirmation or by hyping up the un-doable so anything realistic is deflated.

Close Name:Actual Reality Posts: 44 Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Subject:

i think apple could totally support blu-ray, but i think their only option for that would be as a BTO option on new macs... I highly doubt their bottom line could account for a $300 optical drive as a standard option.

View Name:Guest
Subject:
Close Name:geoduck Posts: 1856 Joined: 30 Dec 2003
Subject: The Contrarian View

I am looking forward the MacWorld. But not from these predictions.
BluRay-Yawn. I'm not getting either BluRay or HD-DVD until they sort out the winner.
Movie Rentals-Yawn. I have no interest in renting. I didn't rent music. I won't rent movies. I OWN what's on my drive.
SubNotebook-We'll see what the specs are but in all likelihood I will still want the power of a full PBP. The PBSub will be cool but not for me.

I'm usually most excited by the announcements that don't make headlines. And the surprises.

Close Name:burrito Posts: 177 Joined: 07 Aug 2005
Subject:

if the stevenote centers around any of these, it's gonna blow.

i like blu-ray, and if they support it in their machines, awesome.. but it's not *that* big of a deal.

i'm tired of hearing about the sub-notebook. nobody wants to shell out a couple grand for an underpowered machine. the current macbook is compact, and is still powerful to pack a bit of a punch.

movie rentals.. apple is gonna admit defeat and settle for a knockoff of a program that microsoft has already established?

Close Name:gslusher Posts: 2071 Joined: 13 Nov 2002
Subject: "Surprise"?

Quote
American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu expects Steve Jobs will surprise Macworld Expo attendees during his keynote presentation with announcements that focus on the subnotebook market, Blu-ray, and iTunes movie rentals. He also expects that Apple's CEO will have something up his sleeve that no one has yet predicted.


Well, Wu-ster, it won't be a "surprise." Wu is actually late to the table with his "prediction." Even the blowhards at The Street and other financial sites have been predicting the sub-notebook (or tablet) and movie rentals for weeks. As for speed bumps and capacity increases, those are inevitable, so they won't be a surprise.
Quote
Apple's last offering in the subnotebook market was the PowerBook 2400 in 1997.


The PowerBook 2400 was 1.9"H x 10.5"W x 8.4"D, weighing 4.4 lbs. The 12-inch PowerBook G4 was/is (I have one) 1.18"H x 10.9"W x 8.6"D, weighing 4.6 lbs. It has a slightly larger footprint (94 vs 88 sq in) but much smaller volume (111 vs 168 cu in) than the PowerBook 2400.

I didn't take the time to check all the PowerBooks in Mactracker, but it looks like the 12-inch PowerBook G4 was the smallest in volume. The next up would probably be the MacBook (1.08" x 12.78" x 8.92" = 123.1 cu in), then the original Duos (1.4" x 10.9" x 8.5" = 130 cu in). The 2400c had the smallest footprint, 88 sq in vs 93.74 sq in for the 12-inch PowerBook G4 and the original Duos, but it was thicker than either of the others.

The idea of a "notebook" is that it is about the size of a notebook, roughly 11" x 8.5" footprint. The Duo 2300c and PB 2400c were just barely smaller. The keyboard limits the width.

I would agree with those who feel that Blu-Ray is not that big a deal. Some have touted the huge storage capacity, while forgetting just how long it would take to burn a Blu-Ray disk, not to mention how expensive they are.

Edit: fix error from Mactracker, which I reported to the author.

View Name:Guest
Subject: On the llight 'n bright side of notebooks
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