Analyst: Macworld to Bring Subnotebook, Blu-ray, Movie Rentals
Analyst: Macworld to Bring Subnotebook, Blu-ray, Movie Rentals
by , 11:35 AM EST, January 3rd, 2008
American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu expects Steve Jobs will surprise Macworld Expo attendees during his keynote presentation with announcements that focus on the subnotebook market, Blu-ray, and iTunes movie rentals. He also expects that Apple's CEO will have something up his sleeve that no one has yet predicted.
Apple's last offering in the subnotebook market was the PowerBook 2400 in 1997. This time, however, the Cupertino company will likely forego tradition design elements by using NAND Flash RAM for primary data storage to reduce power consumption, improve reliability, and reduce weight. Likely names for the laptop, according to Mr. Wu, include ""MacBook mini" or "MacBook slim."
Blu-ray, one of the potential successors to the DVD movie format, will likely make its first appearance in Apple computers at Macworld Expo, too.
"Our sources indicate that Apple will outline is high-definition video strategy with the support of Blu-ray as opposed to HD-DVD," Mr Wu said. "We believe this is a key announcement as current Macs ship with DVD and Sony gains a strong ally in Blu-ray. We would note that Disney supports Blu-ray and Microsoft is a big supporter of HD-DVD."
Apple's movie-related announcements won't be limited to Blu-ray support. Mr. Wu expects Apple will also announce movie rentals through the iTunes Store. He believes "that rentals are a significant change in [Apple's] philosophy with its current iTunes download business model. The positive implication from this is that Apple enhances its video experience and makes it more compelling to move and/or stick with the iTunes + iPod + Mac + iPhone + Apple TV ecosystem."
Mr. Jobs may also announce storage and speed bumps for other Mac models and possibly the iPhone, but Apple TV updates may not come until later in 2008 or even sometime in 2009. Mr. Wu added "We believe a 3G iPhone will most likely ship in the mid to [second half of] 2008 timeframe. We believe that by then the network coverage, price points, and battery life issues will be better addressed."
Mr. Wu is maintaining his "Buy" rating and US$210 target price for Apple's stock. Apple is currently trading at $195.48, up 0.64 (0.33%).
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Observer Comments
Thu Jan 03, 2008 2:20 pm Subject: Screw the Stevenote!
I say screw the Stevenote! What we all want instead is a Wunote. Way back when there were just rumor sites and no analysts xeroxing their predictions, things were good. You could ignore the rumor sites the week before an Apple event and then really enjoy the Steve's show. Now, everything is known beforehand with Wu, Munster, and their minions releasing all the spoilers. And if they don't spoil things, they just ramp up expectations to unmeetable levels and everyone is disappointed that Apple didn't pull some speculated product out of Jonathan Ive's arse.
I have to say I agree with Bosco in a way. I enjoy getting all hyped up, and I love some of the things that the community comes up with. Still, it's true that you can spoil a good presentation either with pre-announcement confirmation or by hyping up the un-doable so anything realistic is deflated.
I also agree with Bosco. Now all these news sources are taking these rumors with more then a grain of salt, and actually reposting this PREDICTIONS. True, lots have been right in the past, but because "reputable" news sources now report on this... it gets the predictions (and the stock) to a point were people get disappointed when their iPhone nano doesn't come out.
I hate the fact that my stock goes up and down because of rumors, just because these financial people are becoming apple fanboys
Thu Jan 03, 2008 8:51 pm Subject: The Contrarian View
I am looking forward the MacWorld. But not from these predictions.
BluRay-Yawn. I'm not getting either BluRay or HD-DVD until they sort out the winner.
Movie Rentals-Yawn. I have no interest in renting. I didn't rent music. I won't rent movies. I OWN what's on my drive.
SubNotebook-We'll see what the specs are but in all likelihood I will still want the power of a full PBP. The PBSub will be cool but not for me.
I'm usually most excited by the announcements that don't make headlines. And the surprises.
if the stevenote centers around any of these, it's gonna blow.
i like blu-ray, and if they support it in their machines, awesome.. but it's not *that* big of a deal.
i'm tired of hearing about the sub-notebook. nobody wants to shell out a couple grand for an underpowered machine. the current macbook is compact, and is still powerful to pack a bit of a punch.
movie rentals.. apple is gonna admit defeat and settle for a knockoff of a program that microsoft has already established?
QuoteAmerican Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu expects Steve Jobs will surprise Macworld Expo attendees during his keynote presentation with announcements that focus on the subnotebook market, Blu-ray, and iTunes movie rentals. He also expects that Apple's CEO will have something up his sleeve that no one has yet predicted.
Well, Wu-ster, it won't be a "surprise." Wu is actually late to the table with his "prediction." Even the blowhards at The Street and other financial sites have been predicting the sub-notebook (or tablet) and movie rentals for weeks. As for speed bumps and capacity increases, those are inevitable, so they won't be a surprise.
QuoteApple's last offering in the subnotebook market was the PowerBook 2400 in 1997.
The PowerBook 2400 was 1.9"H x 10.5"W x 8.4"D, weighing 4.4 lbs. The 12-inch PowerBook G4 was/is (I have one) 1.18"H x 10.9"W x 8.6"D, weighing 4.6 lbs. It has a slightly larger footprint (94 vs 88 sq in) but much smaller volume (111 vs 168 cu in) than the PowerBook 2400.
I didn't take the time to check all the PowerBooks in Mactracker, but it looks like the 12-inch PowerBook G4 was the smallest in volume. The next up would probably be the MacBook (1.08" x 12.78" x 8.92" = 123.1 cu in), then the original Duos (1.4" x 10.9" x 8.5" = 130 cu in). The 2400c had the smallest footprint, 88 sq in vs 93.74 sq in for the 12-inch PowerBook G4 and the original Duos, but it was thicker than either of the others.
The idea of a "notebook" is that it is about the size of a notebook, roughly 11" x 8.5" footprint. The Duo 2300c and PB 2400c were just barely smaller. The keyboard limits the width.
I would agree with those who feel that Blu-Ray is not that big a deal. Some have touted the huge storage capacity, while forgetting just how long it would take to burn a Blu-Ray disk, not to mention how expensive they are.
Edit: fix error from Mactracker, which I reported to the author.
The PowerBook G4 was my first Mac and continues to be my only (two IBM PCs on the desktops) - but I expect that to change soon. I for one am eager for a lighter portable, hopefully with a much brighter screen than the G4, that becomes my go-everywhere essential tool. I also will be replacing my two desktops with Macs (probably iMacs since the Mac Pro is more than my office needs - although one iMac and a Mac mini might do the job). What I need to complete the picture (in addition to sterling networking)is a process for keeping the 3 machines fully synced so that when I'm in the office I can switch seemlessly to the 24" iMac without spending a lot of time making sure my files and calendar and contacts lists and entouage mail is current. I'm looking forward to next week.
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