John Gruber of Daring Fireball syas that 2004 wonit be like 1984. In an editorial addressing Appleis decision to keep the iTunes Music Store and the iPod locked together, he says that those saying that Apple is making the same mistake it did in not licensing the Mac OS in 1984 are wrong. According to Mr. Gruber, the situations between the iPod/iTMS and the Mac in 1984 arenit analogous, and the issue should be looked at differently. From the introduction of his piece:

The relevance to Appleis 20-year-old licensing decisions is that nearly every mainstream media pundit who opens his mouth about the iPod -- especially in the wake of RealNetworksi Harmony announcement — has decided that Apple is, all together now, making the same mistake with the iPod that they made with the Macintosh.

I.e., that Apple didnit license the Macintosh, Microsoft did license their operating systems, and thatis why Microsoft won and Apple lost. And now Apple is doing the same thing with the iPod and the iTMS.

Iim here to tell you this is utter bunk. Appleis position with the iPod is significantly different -- and much stronger -- than their position with Macintosh 20 years ago.

Mr. Gruber goes into great detail on these issues in the full editorial -- including decsontructing some specific arguments -- and we recommend the article as a solid piece of analysis.