Analyst: Apple on Track to Top 10M iPhone 6 Launch Sales

Apple confirmed Monday morning iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus first-day pre-orders topped 4 million units, and Wells Fargo analyst Maynard Um says that puts the company on track to sell at least 10 million during this weekend's in-store launch. If so, Apple is set to more than double its iPhone 5 launch weekend sales.

iPhone 6 launch weekend sales to top 10 million unitsiPhone 6 launch weekend sales to top 10 million units

Mr. Um told investors,

Apple announced this morning that it received a record 4 million pre-orders that exceeded the initial pre-order supply. While there was no comparable release for the 5S, this compares to over 2 million preorders for the iPhone 5 in the first 24 hours with a total first weekend sales of 5 million+ (roughly 40 percent of first weekend sales). Assuming pre-orders are similar to the 40 percent of first weekend sales for the iPhone 5, this would imply iPhone 6/6 Plus first weekend sales could be around 10 million.

iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus pre-orders started just after midnight pacific time on Friday, September 12, and almost immediately showed the larger display iPhone 6 Plus as unavailable for delivery on this week's September 9 launch date. The 4.7-inch iPhone 6 is now showing as back ordered for pre-orders by Monday, too.

The iPhone 6 line up was introduced last week during a media event at the Flint Center in Cupertino. The new models will be available with 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch displays, 8MP cameras with improved image sensors, higher quality displays, 802.11ac WiFi, a new motion coprocessor, thinner bodies, NFC support for the Apple Pay mobile payment system, and more.

Even though pre-orders are no longer available to ship for delivery this Friday, Apple will have stock in its stores for walk-in sales. That inventory may be limited, however, which means some customers could be left empty handed after waiting in line for hours.

Despite the potential for demand to exceed inventory, Mr. Um thinks Apple could hit top the 10 million mark for launch weekend sales. He said, "Assuming Apple has more inventory on hand versus the 5 launch, it would suggest the company is on track to meet our expectation for low teens million sales for its first weekend."

Mr. Um is maintaining his "Market Perform" rating and target price range between $89 and $99 for Apple's stock. Apple is currently trading at US$102.39, up 0.73 (0.72%).