Analyst: Apple Could Double World Market Share in 5 Years

Based on its fourth quarter earnings report, Apple looks to be doing well in the computer market, but Broadpoint AmTech's Brian Marshall thinks the company is poised to do even better. According to Mr. Marshall, Apple is in a position to boost its worldwide market share from four percent to eight percent in the next five years.

Apple reported record Mac and iPhone sales for the September quarter with 3.05 million Macs, 7.4 million iPhones, and 10.2 million iPods sold. GAAP revenue for the quarter was US$9.87 billion, and profits were $1.67 billion, or $1.82 earnings per share. Non-GAAP revenue was $12.25 billion, while non-GAAP profits were $2.85 billion.

"In our view, the 'Apple Ecosystem' continues to build momentum, and with less than five percent share in both the global handset/computing markets, we see no reason why Apple's growth would decelerate in the near-term," Mr. Marshall said.

Like other analysts, Mr. Marshall sees Apple's December quarter guidance as conservative. Apple is guiding revenue between $11.3 and $11.6 billion for the quarter with an EPS between $1.70 and $1.78, below Mr. Marshall's $12.509 billion and $1.89 EPS.

He also raised his calendar year estimates for 2001 by 12 percent from $49.4 billion and $10.50 EPS to %53.3 billion and $11.75 EPS.

"In our view, Apple is the best technology company on the planet with numerous catalysts on the horizon (e.g. China iPhone ramp, netbook/tablet launch, etc.) and no business model issues," he said.

Mr. Marshall is maintaining his "Buy" rating for Apple's stock and is raising his target price from $210 to $235. Apple is currently trading at $200.48, up 10.62 (5.59%).