Analyst: Apple May Miss Q4 iPad Estimates

| Apple Stock Watch

Apple may not sell as many iPads during the December quarter as everyone and their brother expects, according to Rodman & Renshaw analyst Ashok Kumar. While Wall Street currently expects Apple to peddle some six million of the tablet devices, Mr. Kumar believes it’s likely to be closer to five million because it’s not a must-have product.

Meh...

The analyst’s glum estimates are still higher than Apple’s guidance, however, as Apple said it expects to sell 4.9 million iPads during the quarter. Mr. Kumar said that many consumers see the iPad, and tablets as a category, as “tweener” devices with limited capabilities, according to a research note covered by Bloomberg.

“It’s a nice-to-have product, for those of us who don’t have a budget, but is it a must-have product? I don’t think so,” Mr. Kumar projected onto everyone else.

But he didn’t focus on just the iPad, which owned some 95% of the tablet market during the September quarter. He noted that Samsung had cut production of its newly released Galaxy Tab by about 50% due to poor sales.

Instead of buying iPads (or Android tablets), Mr. Kumar said that consumers are going to be spending their money on new smartphones and laptops.

Despite this sentiment, Mr. Kumar has Apple’s stock rated as a “Market Outperform.”

Shares in Apple traded higher during the mid-morning session Monday, at $309.23, a modest gain of 1.20 (+0.39%).

*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a small share in AAPL stock that was not an influence in the creation of this article.  

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13 Comments Leave Your Own

Ted Landau

This is all a bit weird to me.

Analysts come up with some probably inflated prediction, based on who-knows-what Ouija board forecasting. Next, they forecast trouble because, in their revised equally speculative forecast, Apple is predicted to not meet the analysts’ previous projection.

All of this occurs prior to any hard data as to what Apple has actually sold.

This is news?

bony

Gruber has a compilation of Kumar misses:
http://daringfireball.net/2010/09/kumar_track_record

Bryan Chaffin

Of course it’s news, Ted, and it’s because of Apple’s own track record of offering guidance that’s far, far below their actual performance ends up being.

It’s the job of analysts to figure out what will happen before it happens, and with Apple part of the game is putting accurate numbers on unit sales ahead of time.

Note how much effort the folks in the Apple Finance Boards put into doing just that (often far more accurately than Wall Street, but that’s another issue).

Mind you, I think Mr. Kumar is way off in his assessment of the iPad’s value.

jfbiii

And, of course, the 50% cut in Galaxy Tab production numbers is extra-bad for the iPad, because nobody had even heard of the Galaxy Tab or even Android tablets 9 months ago and now they’re eating into iPad’s market share thousands of times faster than they were then. This kind of failure from Apple is a genetic problem that will continue to play out.

Chandra Coomar

If you quote a fool’s work, what does that make you?

Chandra Coomar

If you quote a ignoramus’s work, what does that make you?

MOSiX Man

What Ted sed.

Brian: You should have some category similar to the ‘Apple Death Knell’, but toned down, in which to place such articles, especially when they turn out to be pure luncheon mystery meat. How about ‘The FUD Files’. You have my full permission to use that without compensating me. wink

bony: I love anything like when Gruber posts ‘claim chowder’. I’ve been a Mac user since when almost everybody based what they knew about Apple on completely fabricated FUD. I’ve argued (litterally) Apple’s case for so long that it’s nice to see when morons that regurgitate anti-Apple nonsense get called on the BS they spout.

[Disclaimer: I know that Apple has done and still does some bone-headed things. I just believe that they suffer from way more than their share of negative press - most of it based on opinions that are stated as if they were facts. Mac users get lumped-together as being frothing-at-the-mouth, vitriolic MS haters, even though a lot of us are not. However, there are still plenty of people that spend a lot of their free time dissecting Apple’s every move and spinning them all as negatively as possible. Nobody (other than us ‘Mac fanboys’) seems to notice all of these devout ‘Apple haters’.]

daemon

MOSiX Man:

No one hates Apple.

Constable Odo

Some idiot saying that the iPad sales will be lower than expected is one thing, but no worse than the shareholders that dumped Apple stock because of what they heard from some ass-hat.  Since the whole tech sector sold off, maybe that’s all the drop in Apple share price was.  I still believe that Apple will have a great Christmas quarter even if the rest of the retailers have mediocre Christmas shopping results.

MOSiX Man

MOSiX Man:

No one hates Apple.

Sigh…

pats

The thing I love the most is the outright lie in the article.  He states that Apple expects to sell 4.9M iPads.  I would love to see his source document as Apple never speculates on sales.  As far as analyst go this guy has a habit of missing the boat and blaming others for his failure.  The guy is getting paid by the hedge fund market makers to put out lies.  Republishing the info does everyone a disservice as it further propagates the false information until it is taken as the truth. 

@ Constable Odo
Shareholders could have a thousand different reasons they need to sell stock, and these analyst who publish lies cause the stock price to move and affect all shareholders

Radovich

It’s a logical necessity that strong sales of hardware followed by a wave of apps saling. Further more, it isn’t an emerging market right now. There are hundreds of developers work on Video Converter and other multimedia area like iFunia does.

googler

Nook Color is better for reading than iPad and better for everything else than Kindle. Nook Color is better for $249. Nook Color screen is supposed to be better (less reflective) for reading than iPad thanks to new LG screen with anti-reflection coating. It allows to watch videos, listen to the music, view Office documents and PDF’s. Porting Android apps is not difficult. B&N says it is more like optimising them for Nook than porting them.
Nook Color specs:
- $249 with free shipping
- 7 inch Color LG Touchscreen 16 million colors with anti-glare coating 1024 x 600 delivering 169 pixels per inch.
- 8GB built in memory expandable to 32 GB with microSD card.
- Formats supported: EPUB, PDF, XLS, DOC, PPT, PPS, TXT, DOCM, XLSM, PPTM, PPSX, PPSM, DOCX, XLX, PPTX, JPG, GIF, PNG, BMP, MP3, AAC, MP4.
- Wi-Fi (802.11 b/g/n), USB port
- OS: Android 2.1
- Processor: TI 800 Mhz ARM Cortex A8-based, 45nm OMAP3621

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